John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia · Conference game
Closing line
UVA -14.5✓ UVA covered by 9.5
UVA -14.5✓ UVA covered by 9.5Closing total148.5Under by 4.5
 CAL | This season | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2 | Record | 12-2 |
| 7-7 | ATS | 8-6 |
| 6-8 | O/U | 7-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CAL 71–80 UVA · ✓ UVA (78%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 33 | 27 | 60 |
| UVA | 43 | 41 | 84 |
1st half: CAL 33, UVA 43 (UVA by 10). The model had UVA by 5.2 and a total of 70.4 (actual 76).
Team stats
| CAL | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-54 35% | Field goals | 30-60 50% |
| 3-19 16% | 3-pointers | 9-29 31% |
| 19-22 86% | Free throws | 15-23 65% |
| 26 6 off | Rebounds | 45 13 off |
| 12 | Assists | 23 |
| 8 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 9 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 20 | Fouls | 21 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| CAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dai Dai Ames G | 32 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 4-10 | 0-3 |
| Justin Pippen G | 31 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 5-12 | 2-5 |
| John Camden F | 30 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 5-8 | 1-4 |
| Chris Bell F | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-6 | 0-3 |
| Lee Dort F | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Semetri Carr G | 23 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Mantas Kocanas C | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Milos Ilic C | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Nolan Dorsey G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| DeJuan Campbell G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Rytis Petraitis, Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut, Stephon Marbury II, Sammie Yeanay, BJ Fisher, Jorell Clark, Luke Butler, Jovani Ruff
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Lewis G | 33 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 4-12 | 0-7 |
| Malik Thomas G | 25 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 7-12 | 4-8 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 24 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 5-8 | 1-2 |
| Dallin Hall G | 24 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 21 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 25 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 18 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Devin Tillis F | 16 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Martin Carrere G | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Elijah Gertrude G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Desmond Roberts G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Owen Odom G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Carter Lang F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Silas Barksdale, Jacari White
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVA -14.5
ModelUVA -8.9
Model edgeCAL +5.6
L UVA covered
Total
Market148.5
Model150.3
Model edgeOver 1.8
L Under
Projected score
CAL 70.7 · UVA 79.6
CAL 60 · UVA 84
Win probability
UVA 78%
1st half
Spread
UVA -5.2
UVA -10.0
Total
70.4
76 points
Projected score
CAL 32.6 · UVA 37.8
CAL 33 · UVA 43
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -12.5
2 → UVA
CloseUVA -14.5
2 pts toward UVA
Total
Open147.5
▲ 1
Close148.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
CAL +750 · UVA -1200
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -12.5 · closed UVA -14.5 · moved 2 toward UVAmodel UVA -9
model UVA -9
Opened 147.5 · closed 148.5 · moved 1 upmodel 150.5
model 150.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 9-1 90% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| UVA | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
CAL 1–0 UVACAL leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CAL 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | UVA 61 @ CAL 75 | CAL -4.5 | CAL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
California
14 games played
Straight up
12-2
86% wins
Against the spread
7-7
50% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-8
43% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CSUB | W 87-60 | -15.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 6 | vs WRST | W 77-67 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 10 | vs CSUF | W 93-65 | -22.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 13 | @ KSU | L 96-99 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 18 | vs PRES | W 67-57 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 124.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAC | W 91-67 | -21.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | +7.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTAH | W 79-72 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 6 | vs PAC | W 67-61 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs NWST | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 19 | vs MORG | W 97-50 | -26.5 | W +20.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLU | W 74-56 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 30 | vs LOU | L 70-90 | +7.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | vs ND | W 72-71 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
+11.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
+5.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+3.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+2.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+15.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−0.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−1.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
−10.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
+20.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
+9.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
−12.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
−2.5
covered 7didn’t cover 7avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
−0.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
−4.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+30.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+3.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+8.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−1.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−16.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
+3.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
−4.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
−23.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
+0.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
+4.5
over 6under 8avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia
14 games played
Straight up
12-2
86% wins
Against the spread
8-6
57% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-7
50% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @ VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
covered 8didn’t cover 6avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
over 7under 7avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
California
12-2 overall · 1-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Notre Dame72–71
- Lvs Louisville70–90
- Wvs Columbia74–56
- Wvs Morgan St97–50
- Wvs N'Western St79–70
5 days since their last game.
Virginia
12-2 overall · 1-1 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ NC State76–61
- L@ Virginia Tech85–95
- Wvs American95–51
- Wvs Maryland80–72
- Wvs MD Eastern84–60
4 days since their last game.