Resch Center · at Green Bay · Conference game
Closing line
NKU -4.5✓ GB covered by 6.5
NKU -4.5✓ GB covered by 6.5Closing total144.5Over by 13.5
| NKU | This season | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | Record | 7-8 |
| 8-7 | ATS | 9-6 |
| 9-6 | O/U | 7-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NKU 76–73 GB · ✗ NKU (60%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKU | 35 | 43 | 78 |
| GB | 51 | 29 | 80 |
1st half: NKU 35, GB 51 (GB by 16). The model had NKU by 1.9 and a total of 69.4 (actual 86).
Team stats
| NKU | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-58 45% | Field goals | 30-52 58% |
| 10-26 38% | 3-pointers | 10-19 53% |
| 16-20 80% | Free throws | 10-15 67% |
| 25 9 off | Rebounds | 34 9 off |
| 16 | Assists | 20 |
| 7 | Steals | 1 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 27 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| NKU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LJ Wells F | 34 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| Ethan Elliott G | 33 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 3-11 | 3-5 |
| Tae Dozier G | 31 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Kael Robinson F | 26 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1-8 | 1-6 |
| Dan Gherezgher G | 26 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Donovan Oday G | 30 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 10-15 | 4-6 |
| Donovan Rakotonanahary F | 18 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Ryan Tolliver F | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: JJ Apathjang, Juanma Ruiz, Addison Archer, Mitchel Minor, Shawn Nelson, Bryce Darbyshire
| GB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. O'Hara G | 39 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Preston Ruedinger G | 37 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| Marcus Hall F | 35 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 4-5 | 1-1 |
| Justin Allen G | 30 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 10-17 | 2-6 |
| Caden Wilkins F | 30 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 6-11 | 5-9 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ramel Bethea F | 16 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| LeBron Thomas G | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Keegan Van Kauwenberg G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Rob Stroud, Maruan Cicic, Brady Fitzgerald, Trey Schachter, Josh Hines, Vukasin Todorovic, Mac Wrecke, Dontrell Hewlett
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNKU -4.5
ModelNKU -2.9
Model edgeGB +1.6
W GB covered
Total
Market144.5
Model148.3
Model edgeOver 3.8
W Over
Projected score
NKU 75.6 · GB 72.7
NKU 78 · GB 80
Win probability
NKU 60%
1st half
Spread
NKU -1.9
GB -16.0
Total
69.4
86 points
Projected score
NKU 35.7 · GB 33.8
NKU 35 · GB 51
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNKU -2.5
2 → NKU
CloseNKU -4.5
2 pts toward NKU
Total
Open146.5
▼ 2
Close144.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
NKU -192 · GB +160
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NKU -2.5 · closed NKU -4.5 · moved 2 toward NKUmodel NKU -3
model NKU -3
Opened 146.5 · closed 144.5 · moved 2 downmodel 148.5
model 148.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NKU | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| GB | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
NKU 8–0 GBNKU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · NKU has won the last 8 meetings · NKU 7-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2024-25 | NKU 73 @ GB 60 | GB +7.5 | NKU W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | GB 60 @ NKU 78 | NKU -12.5 | NKU W |
| Feb 14, 2023-24 | NKU 58 @ GB 57 | GB -3.5 | NKU W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | GB 52 @ NKU 74 | NKU -5.5 | NKU W |
| Jan 26, 2022-23 | GB 50 @ NKU 68 | NKU -16.5 | NKU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
N Kentucky
15 games played
Straight up
10-5
67% wins
Against the spread
8-7
53% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-6
60% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ TENN | L 56-95 | +27.5 | L −11.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 12 | @ ETSU | L 63-75 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 20 | @ CMU | W 90-66 | +4.5 | W +28.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs EKU | W 82-71 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 26 | vs WOF | W 93-83 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 149.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 29 | vs BU | W 74-65 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 3 | vs CLE | W 95-80 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 6 | @ PFW | L 77-79 | +1.5 | L −0.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 13 | @ BELL | W 80-76 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 17 | vs OAK | L 77-82 | -3.5 | L −8.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 21 | vs COFC | L 74-85 | -5.5 | L −16.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 29 | @ RMU | W 79-77 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 1 | vs IUIN | W 81-72 | -13.5 | L −4.5 | 176.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 4 | vs YSU | W 94-79 | -4.5 | W +10.5 | 146.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 9 | @ MILW | W 85-67 | +1.5 | W +19.5 | 157.5 | U 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@TENN
TENNL 56-95
−11.5
12
@ETSU
ETSUL 63-75
−5.5
20
@CMU
CMUW 90-66
+28.5
24
vsEKU
EKUW 82-71
+6.5
26
vsWOF
WOFW 93-83
+6.5
29
vsBU
BUW 74-65
+1.5
3
vsCLE
CLEW 95-80
+0.5
6
@PFW
PFWL 77-79
−0.5
13
@BELL
BELLW 80-76
−0.5
17
vsOAK
OAKL 77-82
−8.5
21
vsCOFC
COFCL 74-85
−16.5
29
@RMU
RMUW 79-77
+0.5
1
vsIUIN
IUINW 81-72
−4.5
4
vsYSU
YSUW 94-79
+10.5
9
@MILW
MILWW 85-67
+19.5
covered 8didn’t cover 7avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@TENN
TENNL 56-95
+13.5
12
@ETSU
ETSUL 63-75
−4.5
20
@CMU
CMUW 90-66
+9.5
24
vsEKU
EKUW 82-71
−3.5
26
vsWOF
WOFW 93-83
+26.5
29
vsBU
BUW 74-65
−4.5
3
vsCLE
CLEW 95-80
+16.5
6
@PFW
PFWL 77-79
+2.5
13
@BELL
BELLW 80-76
+9.5
17
vsOAK
OAKL 77-82
−4.5
21
vsCOFC
COFCL 74-85
+5.5
29
@RMU
RMUW 79-77
+6.5
1
vsIUIN
IUINW 81-72
−23.5
4
vsYSU
YSUW 94-79
+26.5
9
@MILW
MILWW 85-67
−5.5
over 9under 6avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Green Bay
15 games played
Straight up
7-8
47% wins
Against the spread
9-6
60% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-8
47% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ KU | L 51-94 | +30.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 7 | @ BUF | L 76-83 | +3.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 13 | @ STMN | L 61-80 | +13.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 15 | @ MINN | L 65-72 | +25.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 21 | vs YALE | L 67-73 | +17.5 | W +11.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 22 | vs MASS | W 79-75 | +5.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 24 | vs IONA | W 80-75 | +5.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 4 | vsRMU | L 78-80 | +1.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | @ WRST | L 58-86 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 11 | @IUIN | W 85-75 | +3.5 | W +13.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Dec 17 | vs UCSB | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 23 | @ CAM | L 79-102 | +5.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 1 | @PFW | W 72-54 | +8.5 | W +26.5 | 145.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 5 | vsMILW | W 79-76 | +3.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 9 | vsIUIN | W 75-59 | -6.5 | W +9.5 | 156.5 | U 134 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@KU
KUL 51-94
−12.5
7
@BUF
BUFL 76-83
−3.5
13
@STMN
STMNL 61-80
−5.5
15
@MINN
MINNL 65-72
+18.5
21
vsYALE
YALEL 67-73
+11.5
22
vsMASS
MASSW 79-75
+9.5
24
vsIONA
IONAW 80-75
+10.5
4
vsRMU
RMUL 78-80
−0.5
7
@WRST
WRSTL 58-86
−21.5
11
@IUIN
IUINW 85-75
+13.5
17
vsUCSB
UCSBW 67-64
+10.5
23
@CAM
CAML 79-102
−17.5
1
@PFW
PFWW 72-54
+26.5
5
vsMILW
MILWW 79-76
+6.5
9
vsIUIN
IUINW 75-59
+9.5
covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@KU
KUL 51-94
−7.5
7
@BUF
BUFL 76-83
+11.5
13
@STMN
STMNL 61-80
−9.5
15
@MINN
MINNL 65-72
−9.5
21
vsYALE
YALEL 67-73
−8.5
22
vsMASS
MASSW 79-75
+7.5
24
vsIONA
IONAW 80-75
+4.5
4
vsRMU
RMUL 78-80
+17.5
7
@WRST
WRSTL 58-86
+1.5
11
@IUIN
IUINW 85-75
−5.5
17
vsUCSB
UCSBW 67-64
−9.5
23
@CAM
CAML 79-102
+35.5
1
@PFW
PFWW 72-54
−19.5
5
vsMILW
MILWW 79-76
+10.5
9
vsIUIN
IUINW 75-59
−22.5
over 7under 8avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
N Kentucky
10-5 overall · 5-2 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Milwaukee85–67
- Wvs Youngstown St94–79
- Wvs IU Indy81–72
- W@ Robert Morris79–77
- Lvs Charleston74–85
2 days since their last game.
Green Bay
7-8 overall · 4-2 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs IU Indy75–59
- Wvs Milwaukee79–76
- W@ Purdue FW72–54
- L@ Campbell79–102
- Wvs Santa Barbara67–64
2 days since their last game.