Broadview Arena · at Buffalo · Conference game
Closing line
BUF -5.5✓ CMU covered by 10.5
BUF -5.5✓ CMU covered by 10.5Closing total151.5Under by 6.5
 CMU | This season | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 7-19 | Record | 14-12 |
| 15-11 | ATS | 16-10 |
| 12-14 | O/U | 15-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CMU 74–79 BUF · ✗ BUF (67%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMU | 34 | 41 | 75 |
| BUF | 26 | 44 | 70 |
1st half: CMU 34, BUF 26 (CMU by 8). The model had BUF by 2.9 and a total of 71.5 (actual 60).
Team stats
| CMU | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-55 47% | Field goals | 28-59 47% |
| 9-22 41% | 3-pointers | 8-23 35% |
| 14-17 82% | Free throws | 6-9 67% |
| 39 14 off | Rebounds | 25 8 off |
| 18 | Assists | 18 |
| 4 | Steals | 10 |
| 4 | Blocks | 4 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| CMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamario Adley G | 35 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 7-13 | 3-6 |
| Keenan Garner F | 32 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 0-6 | 0-1 |
| Logan McIntire G | 31 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Nathan Claerbaut C | 30 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 5-10 | 0-0 |
| Phat Phat Brooks G | 30 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 5-8 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nick Mullen F | 18 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Jaxson Whitaker G | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Kampen G | 12 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
Did not play: Kayden Nation, Jorden Brooks, Kareem Aburashed, Will Ashford, Nsikan Usen, Uchenna Amene, Rodney Johnson Jr.
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sabol G | 40 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 6-17 | 5-12 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 39 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5-12 | 0-3 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 37 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 35 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 5-7 | 0-1 |
| Tim Oboh F | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kyle Jones G | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Ezra McKenna F | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Matas Buteliauskas F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Evan Romano, Aleksa Vlajic, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic, Mikhali Pocknett, Daniel Freitag
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBUF -5.5
ModelBUF -5.1
Model edgeCMU +0.4
W CMU covered
Total
Market151.5
Model152.9
Model edgeOver 1.4
L Under
Projected score
CMU 73.9 · BUF 79
CMU 75 · BUF 70
Win probability
BUF 67%
1st half
Spread
BUF -2.9
CMU -8.0
Total
71.5
60 points
Projected score
CMU 34.3 · BUF 37.2
CMU 34 · BUF 26
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBUF -6.5
1 → CMU
CloseBUF -5.5
1 pt toward CMU
Total
Open150.5
▲ 1
Close151.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
CMU +220 · BUF -270
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BUF -6.5 · closed BUF -5.5 · moved 1 toward CMUmodel BUF -5
model BUF -5
Opened 150.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 1 upmodel 153
model 153
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMU | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| BUF | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
CMU 2–4 BUFBUF leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · CMU 1-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024-25 | BUF 69 @ CMU 73 | CMU -13.5 | BUF W |
| Jan 28, 2024-25 | CMU 69 @ BUF 75 | BUF +6.5 | BUF W |
| Jan 2, 2023-24 | BUF 76 @ CMU 64 | CMU -1.5 | BUF W |
| Feb 21, 2022-23 | CMU 35 @ BUF 63 | BUF -12.5 | BUF W |
| Jan 14, 2022-23 | BUF 78 @ CMU 87 | CMU +4.5 | CMU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
C Michigan
26 games played
Straight up
7-19
27% wins
Against the spread
15-11
58% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-14
46% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs APP | W 82-66 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 8 | @ BRAD | L 54-85 | +9.5 | L −21.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 13 | vs USA | L 64-66 | +5.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 14 | vs COPP | W 82-59 | -10.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 20 | vs NKU | L 66-90 | -4.5 | L −28.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 22 | @ MARQ | L 71-85 | +25.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 2 | @ LUC | L 72-83 | +6.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 7 | @ SLU | L 65-107 | +24.5 | L −17.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 13 | @ STBK | L 55-78 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 20 | @ NIU | L 73-74 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 22 | @ WIS | L 61-88 | +26.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 30 | vs OHIO | L 64-80 | +6.5 | L −9.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 3 | vs TOL | L 75-78 | +7.5 | W +4.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 6 | @ AKR | L 69-82 | +23.5 | W +10.5 | 164.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 10 | vs KENT | W 87-85 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 156.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 13 | @ M-OH | L 61-100 | +15.5 | L −23.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 20 | vs BALL | L 67-68 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 142.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 24 | @ WMU | L 65-77 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 27 | vs EMU | W 100-65 | +2.5 | W +37.5 | 139.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 31 | vs BGSU | W 62-59 | +8.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 3 | @ MASS | L 89-95 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 7 | @ UL | L 80-85 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 134.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 14 | vsNIU | W 88-46 | -4.5 | W +37.5 | 146.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 17 | @EMU | L 54-66 | +4.5 | L −7.5 | 140.5 | U 120 |
| Feb 21 | vsWMU | W 83-70 | -3.5 | W +9.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 24 | @KENT | L 81-83 | +11.5 | W +9.5 | 156.5 | O 164 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsAPP
APPW 82-66
+14.5
8
@BRAD
BRADL 54-85
−21.5
13
vsUSA
USAL 64-66
+3.5
14
vsCOPP
COPPW 82-59
+12.5
20
vsNKU
NKUL 66-90
−28.5
22
@MARQ
MARQL 71-85
+11.5
2
@LUC
LUCL 72-83
−4.5
7
@SLU
SLUL 65-107
−17.5
13
@STBK
STBKL 55-78
−15.5
20
@NIU
NIUL 73-74
+1.5
22
@WIS
WISL 61-88
−0.5
30
vsOHIO
OHIOL 64-80
−9.5
3
vsTOL
TOLL 75-78
+4.5
6
@AKR
AKRL 69-82
+10.5
10
vsKENT
KENTW 87-85
+12.5
13
@M-OH
M-OHL 61-100
−23.5
20
vsBALL
BALLL 67-68
+0.5
24
@WMU
WMUL 65-77
−6.5
27
vsEMU
EMUW 100-65
+37.5
31
vsBGSU
BGSUW 62-59
+11.5
3
@MASS
MASSL 89-95
+5.5
7
@UL
ULL 80-85
−2.5
14
vsNIU
NIUW 88-46
+37.5
17
@EMU
EMUL 54-66
−7.5
21
vsWMU
WMUW 83-70
+9.5
24
@KENT
KENTL 81-83
+9.5
covered 15didn’t cover 11avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsAPP
APPW 82-66
+5.5
8
@BRAD
BRADL 54-85
−8.5
13
vsUSA
USAL 64-66
−12.5
14
vsCOPP
COPPW 82-59
−1.5
20
vsNKU
NKUL 66-90
+9.5
22
@MARQ
MARQL 71-85
+3.5
2
@LUC
LUCL 72-83
+14.5
7
@SLU
SLUL 65-107
+11.5
13
@STBK
STBKL 55-78
−12.5
20
@NIU
NIUL 73-74
−2.5
22
@WIS
WISL 61-88
−3.5
30
vsOHIO
OHIOL 64-80
−7.5
3
vsTOL
TOLL 75-78
−5.5
6
@AKR
AKRL 69-82
−13.5
10
vsKENT
KENTW 87-85
+15.5
13
@M-OH
M-OHL 61-100
+2.5
20
vsBALL
BALLL 67-68
−7.5
24
@WMU
WMUL 65-77
−6.5
27
vsEMU
EMUW 100-65
+25.5
31
vsBGSU
BGSUW 62-59
−28.5
3
@MASS
MASSL 89-95
+31.5
7
@UL
ULL 80-85
+30.5
14
vsNIU
NIUW 88-46
−12.5
17
@EMU
EMUL 54-66
−20.5
21
vsWMU
WMUW 83-70
+2.5
24
@KENT
KENTL 81-83
+7.5
over 12under 14avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Buffalo
26 games played
Straight up
14-12
54% wins
Against the spread
16-10
62% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-11
58% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vsBALL | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 10 | @OHIO | L 80-91 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | vsKENT | L 81-87 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @M-OH | L 102-105 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
| Jan 20 | vsAKR | L 63-82 | +8.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 23 | vsMASS | L 67-68 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @BGSU | W 89-78 | +7.5 | W +18.5 | 150.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 31 | vsOHIO | L 83-95 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 3 | vsM-OH | L 71-73 | +4.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 7 | @USA | L 69-81 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 11 | @BALL | W 63-53 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 17 | vsNIU | L 70-72 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 21 | @MASS | W 86-82 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 151.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 24 | @AKR | L 85-99 | +15.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 184 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+6.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
−6.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
−3.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+7.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−10.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−2.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+18.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
−14.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
+2.5
7
@USA
USAL 69-81
−8.5
11
@BALL
BALLW 63-53
+11.5
17
vsNIU
NIUL 70-72
−11.5
21
@MASS
MASSW 86-82
+11.5
24
@AKR
AKRL 85-99
+1.5
covered 16didn’t cover 10avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+11.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
+14.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
+2.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+44.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−21.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−24.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+16.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
+21.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
−21.5
7
@USA
USAL 69-81
+4.5
11
@BALL
BALLW 63-53
−25.5
17
vsNIU
NIUL 70-72
−3.5
21
@MASS
MASSW 86-82
+16.5
24
@AKR
AKRL 85-99
+23.5
over 15under 11avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
C Michigan
7-19 overall · 5-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Kent State81–83
- Wvs W Michigan83–70
- L@ E Michigan54–66
- Wvs N Illinois88–46
- L@ Louisiana80–85
4 days since their last game.
Buffalo
14-12 overall · 6-9 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Akron85–99
- W@ UMass86–82
- Lvs N Illinois70–72
- W@ Ball State63–53
- L@ South Alabama69–81
4 days since their last game.