Broadview Arena · at Buffalo · Conference game
Closing line
BUF -9.5✓ NIU covered by 11.5
BUF -9.5✓ NIU covered by 11.5Closing total145.5Under by 3.5
 NIU | This season | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 6-16 | Record | 13-10 |
| 11-11 | ATS | 14-9 |
| 7-15 | O/U | 13-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NIU 69–79 BUF · ✗ BUF (81%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 29 | 43 | 72 |
| BUF | 35 | 35 | 70 |
1st half: NIU 29, BUF 35 (BUF by 6). The model had BUF by 5.8 and a total of 69.3 (actual 64).
Team stats
| NIU | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-50 48% | Field goals | 25-54 46% |
| 13-28 46% | 3-pointers | 8-22 36% |
| 11-15 73% | Free throws | 12-17 71% |
| 35 8 off | Rebounds | 25 5 off |
| 19 | Assists | 11 |
| 5 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| NIU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Walters G | 38 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-3 |
| Dylan Ducommun G | 37 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 4-14 | 4-11 |
| Gianni Cobb G | 37 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 7-14 | 4-8 |
| Makhai Valentine G | 34 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Hassan Washington F | 21 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Gustav Winther F | 20 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| Daemar Kelly G | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jao Ituka, Max Laskey, Isaiah Stewart, Ladji Kante, JJ Taylor, Carlos Coronado, Jaylen Wharton, Isaiah Washington, Lataevyon Taylor
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 40 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Sabol G | 39 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 8-16 | 6-11 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 37 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 9-18 | 1-5 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 35 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Tim Oboh F | 21 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ezra McKenna F | 18 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Kyle Jones G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Aleksa Vlajic, Daniel Freitag, Evan Romano, Matas Buteliauskas, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic, Mikhali Pocknett
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBUF -9.5
ModelBUF -10.0
Model edgeBUF +0.5
L NIU covered
Total
Market145.5
Model148.2
Model edgeOver 2.7
L Under
Projected score
NIU 69.1 · BUF 79.1
NIU 72 · BUF 70
Win probability
BUF 81%
1st half
Spread
BUF -5.8
BUF -6.0
Total
69.3
64 points
Projected score
NIU 31.8 · BUF 37.6
NIU 29 · BUF 35
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBUF -8.5
1 → BUF
CloseBUF -9.5
1 pt toward BUF
Total
Open148.5
▼ 3
Close145.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
NIU +380 · BUF -500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BUF -8.5 · closed BUF -9.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel BUF -10
model BUF -10
Opened 148.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 3 downmodel 148
model 148
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| BUF | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
NIU 2–6 BUFBUF leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · BUF has won the last 2 meetings · NIU 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025-26 | BUF 81 @ NIU 67 | NIU +6.5 | BUF W |
| Feb 11, 2024-25 | BUF 73 @ NIU 67 | NIU -1.5 | BUF W |
| Mar 8, 2023-24 | NIU 78 @ BUF 68 | BUF +1.5 | NIU W |
| Feb 13, 2023-24 | BUF 68 @ NIU 72 | NIU -9.5 | BUF W |
| Feb 28, 2022-23 | BUF 85 @ NIU 75 | NIU +4.5 | BUF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
N Illinois
22 games played
Straight up
6-16
27% wins
Against the spread
11-11
50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-15
32% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ULM | W 102-82 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 147.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | @ WIS | L 72-97 | +28.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 10 | @ GCU | L 59-88 | +22.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 18 | @ UNI | L 57-70 | +19.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | @ LUC | W 76-59 | +13.5 | W +30.5 | 148.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 25 | @ APSU | L 59-77 | +6.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 2 | vs LIN | L 64-99 | -3.5 | L −38.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 6 | @ BRAD | L 55-84 | +18.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 13 | @ ELON | L 79-85 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 20 | vs CMU | W 74-73 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 31 | vsBUF | L 67-81 | +6.5 | L −7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | @ KENT | L 73-77 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 6 | vs TOL | L 61-75 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 13 | @ EMU | L 59-77 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 141.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 17 | vs MASS | W 70-68 | +8.5 | W +10.5 | 157.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 20 | @ OHIO | L 77-80 | +11.5 | W +8.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 24 | @ BALL | L 53-58 | +5.5 | W +0.5 | 141.5 | U 111 |
| Jan 27 | vs WMU | W 85-65 | -1.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 31 | @ M-OH | L 61-85 | +16.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 7 | @ GAST | W 75-74 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 11 | vs BGSU | L 52-68 | +7.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
| Feb 14 | @CMU | L 46-88 | +4.5 | L −37.5 | 146.5 | U 134 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsULM
ULMW 102-82
+12.5
7
@WIS
WISL 72-97
+3.5
10
@GCU
GCUL 59-88
−6.5
18
@UNI
UNIL 57-70
+6.5
21
@LUC
LUCW 76-59
+30.5
25
@APSU
APSUL 59-77
−11.5
2
vsLIN
LINL 64-99
−38.5
6
@BRAD
BRADL 55-84
−10.5
13
@ELON
ELONL 79-85
+5.5
20
vsCMU
CMUW 74-73
−1.5
31
vsBUF
BUFL 67-81
−7.5
3
@KENT
KENTL 73-77
+12.5
6
vsTOL
TOLL 61-75
−6.5
13
@EMU
EMUL 59-77
−10.5
17
vsMASS
MASSW 70-68
+10.5
20
@OHIO
OHIOL 77-80
+8.5
24
@BALL
BALLL 53-58
+0.5
27
vsWMU
WMUW 85-65
+18.5
31
@M-OH
M-OHL 61-85
−7.5
7
@GAST
GASTW 75-74
+5.5
11
vsBGSU
BGSUL 52-68
−8.5
14
@CMU
CMUL 46-88
−37.5
covered 11didn’t cover 11avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsULM
ULMW 102-82
+36.5
7
@WIS
WISL 72-97
+11.5
10
@GCU
GCUL 59-88
−16.5
18
@UNI
UNIL 57-70
−19.5
21
@LUC
LUCW 76-59
−13.5
25
@APSU
APSUL 59-77
−11.5
2
vsLIN
LINL 64-99
+15.5
6
@BRAD
BRADL 55-84
−7.5
13
@ELON
ELONL 79-85
+7.5
20
vsCMU
CMUW 74-73
−2.5
31
vsBUF
BUFL 67-81
−4.5
3
@KENT
KENTL 73-77
−7.5
6
vsTOL
TOLL 61-75
−25.5
13
@EMU
EMUL 59-77
−5.5
17
vsMASS
MASSW 70-68
−19.5
20
@OHIO
OHIOL 77-80
+2.5
24
@BALL
BALLL 53-58
−30.5
27
vsWMU
WMUW 85-65
+3.5
31
@M-OH
M-OHL 61-85
−12.5
7
@GAST
GASTW 75-74
+5.5
11
vsBGSU
BGSUL 52-68
−24.5
14
@CMU
CMUL 46-88
−12.5
over 7under 15avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Buffalo
23 games played
Straight up
13-10
57% wins
Against the spread
14-9
61% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-10
57% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vsBALL | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 10 | @OHIO | L 80-91 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | vsKENT | L 81-87 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @M-OH | L 102-105 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
| Jan 20 | vs AKR | L 63-82 | +8.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 23 | vsMASS | L 67-68 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @BGSU | W 89-78 | +7.5 | W +18.5 | 150.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 31 | vsOHIO | L 83-95 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 3 | vsM-OH | L 71-73 | +4.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 7 | @ USA | L 69-81 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 11 | @BALL | W 63-53 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+6.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
−6.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
−3.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+7.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−10.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−2.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+18.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
−14.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
+2.5
7
@USA
USAL 69-81
−8.5
11
@BALL
BALLW 63-53
+11.5
covered 14didn’t cover 9avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+11.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
+14.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
+2.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+44.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−21.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−24.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+16.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
+21.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
−21.5
7
@USA
USAL 69-81
+4.5
11
@BALL
BALLW 63-53
−25.5
over 13under 10avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
N Illinois
6-16 overall · 3-9 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ C Michigan46–88
- Lvs Bowling Green52–68
- W@ Georgia St75–74
- L@ Miami OH61–85
- Wvs W Michigan85–65
3 days since their last game.
Buffalo
13-10 overall · 5-7 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Ball State63–53
- L@ South Alabama69–81
- Lvs Miami OH71–73
- Lvs Ohio83–95
- W@ Bowling Green89–78
6 days since their last game.