Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena · at UMBC · Conference game
Closing line
UVM -1.5✓ UMBC covered by 14.5
UVM -1.5✓ UMBC covered by 14.5Closing total142.5Under by 5.5
| UVM | This season | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| 15-10 | Record | 14-8 |
| 12-13 | ATS | 12-10 |
| 16-9 | O/U | 11-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UVM 72–73 UMBC · ✓ UMBC (51%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVM | 26 | 36 | 62 |
| UMBC | 38 | 37 | 75 |
1st half: UVM 26, UMBC 38 (UMBC by 12). The model had UMBC by 0.0 and a total of 67.7 (actual 64).
Team stats
| UVM | UMBC | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-63 35% | Field goals | 22-57 39% |
| 10-28 36% | 3-pointers | 11-26 42% |
| 8-10 80% | Free throws | 20-25 80% |
| 36 7 off | Rebounds | 45 10 off |
| 12 | Assists | 8 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 1 | Blocks | 2 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| UVM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Hurley G | 34 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1-8 | 1-5 |
| Gus Yalden F | 31 | 17 | 12 | 2 | 7-18 | 3-6 |
| Sean Blake G | 21 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2-7 | 1-2 |
| Noah Barnett F | 19 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Ben Johnson G | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Lucas Mari G | 32 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| TJ Long G | 27 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 7-15 | 3-8 |
| Momo Nkugwa G | 19 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Benjamin Michaels F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jackson Skipper, Drew Bessette, Sincere Clemons, Trey Woodyard, Ben Wesson, Chris Kuzemka, David Simon
| UMBC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jah'Likai King G | 35 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 6-18 | 5-9 |
| DJ Armstrong Jr. G | 32 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3-9 | 1-6 |
| Ace Valentine G | 31 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 3-8 | 2-4 |
| Jose Roberto Tanchyn F | 28 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Josh Odunowo F | 18 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Caden Diggs F | 26 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Riley Jacobs F | 13 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Cougar Downing G | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Paul Greene F | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Saahil Thakkar, Devin Ceaser, Regimantas Ciunys, Jake Stout, Tim Eze, Daylon Dickerson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVM -1.5
ModelUMBC -0.3
Model edgeUMBC +1.8
W UMBC covered
Total
Market142.5
Model144.7
Model edgeOver 2.2
L Under
Projected score
UVM 72.2 · UMBC 72.5
UVM 62 · UMBC 75
Win probability
UMBC 51%
1st half
Spread
UMBC -0.0
UMBC -12.0
Total
67.7
64 points
Projected score
UVM 33.9 · UMBC 33.9
UVM 26 · UMBC 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVM -1.5
no move
CloseUVM -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open141.5
▲ 1
Close142.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
UVM -125 · UMBC +105
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVM -1.5 · unchangedmodel UMBC -0.5
model UMBC -0.5
Opened 141.5 · closed 142.5 · moved 1 upmodel 144.5
model 144.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UVM | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| UMBC | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
UVM 9–1 UMBCUVM leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · UVM has won the last 2 meetings · UVM 6-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025-26 | UMBC 55 @ UVM 64 | UVM -8.5 | UVM W |
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | UVM 79 @ UMBC 69 | UMBC +8.5 | UVM W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | UMBC 80 @ UVM 63 | UVM -5.5 | UMBC W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | UVM 72 @ UMBC 70 | UMBC +12 | UMBC W |
| Jan 11, 2023-24 | UMBC 72 @ UVM 77 | UVM -17.5 | UMBC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Vermont
25 games played
Straight up
15-10
60% wins
Against the spread
12-13
48% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-9
64% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | @ BRWN | W 89-84 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 131.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 15 | @ NE | W 85-74 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 134.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 18 | @ BUF | L 90-94 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs LIB | L 73-79 | +8.5 | W +2.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs URI | L 65-80 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 26 | vs PRIN | W 79-74 | -5.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 30 | vs YALE | L 74-77 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ORST | L 58-80 | +3.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 6 | @ PEPP | W 65-56 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 14 | vs MRMK | W 66-59 | -6.5 | W +0.5 | 136.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 17 | vs SIE | W 83-69 | -2.5 | W +11.5 | 134.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 20 | vs IONA | L 78-83 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | @PRIN | L 69-75 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 136.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 3 | @ UNH | W 80-61 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vs BING | W 60-59 | -20.5 | L −19.5 | 140.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 15 | vs ME | W 67-62 | -14.5 | L −9.5 | 130.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 19 | @ UALB | L 68-75 | -5.5 | L −12.5 | 139.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 22 | @ UML | W 77-68 | -4.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 24 | @ BRY | W 62-52 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 133.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 29 | vsUMBC | W 64-55 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 141.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 31 | vs NJIT | L 77-79 | -13.5 | L −15.5 | 139.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 5 | @ME | L 70-76 | -8.5 | L −14.5 | 130.5 | O 146 |
| Feb 7 | vsUNH | W 80-57 | -9.5 | W +13.5 | 138.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 12 | @BING | W 73-65 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 136.5 | O 138 |
| Feb 14 | vsBRY | W 90-63 | -13.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
9
@BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
−0.5
15
@NE
NEW 85-74
+12.5
18
@BUF
BUFL 90-94
−5.5
24
vsLIB
LIBL 73-79
+2.5
25
vsURI
URIL 65-80
−10.5
26
vsPRIN
PRINW 79-74
−0.5
30
vsYALE
YALEL 74-77
+3.5
3
@ORST
ORSTL 58-80
−18.5
6
@PEPP
PEPPW 65-56
+7.5
14
vsMRMK
MRMKW 66-59
+0.5
17
vsSIE
SIEW 83-69
+11.5
20
vsIONA
IONAL 78-83
−11.5
30
@PRIN
PRINL 69-75
−9.5
3
@UNH
UNHW 80-61
+11.5
8
vsBING
BINGW 60-59
−19.5
15
vsME
MEW 67-62
−9.5
19
@UALB
UALBL 68-75
−12.5
22
@UML
UMLW 77-68
+4.5
24
@BRY
BRYW 62-52
+1.5
29
vsUMBC
UMBCW 64-55
+0.5
31
vsNJIT
NJITL 77-79
−15.5
5
@ME
MEL 70-76
−14.5
7
vsUNH
UNHW 80-57
+13.5
12
@BING
BINGW 73-65
−3.5
14
vsBRY
BRYW 90-63
+13.5
covered 12didn’t cover 13avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
9
@BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
+41.5
15
@NE
NEW 85-74
+24.5
18
@BUF
BUFL 90-94
+42.5
24
vsLIB
LIBL 73-79
+10.5
25
vsURI
URIL 65-80
+0.5
26
vsPRIN
PRINW 79-74
+12.5
30
vsYALE
YALEL 74-77
+3.5
3
@ORST
ORSTL 58-80
−5.5
6
@PEPP
PEPPW 65-56
−21.5
14
vsMRMK
MRMKW 66-59
−11.5
17
vsSIE
SIEW 83-69
+17.5
20
vsIONA
IONAL 78-83
+8.5
30
@PRIN
PRINL 69-75
+7.5
3
@UNH
UNHW 80-61
+1.5
8
vsBING
BINGW 60-59
−21.5
15
vsME
MEW 67-62
−1.5
19
@UALB
UALBL 68-75
+3.5
22
@UML
UMLW 77-68
−0.5
24
@BRY
BRYW 62-52
−19.5
29
vsUMBC
UMBCW 64-55
−22.5
31
vsNJIT
NJITL 77-79
+16.5
5
@ME
MEL 70-76
+15.5
7
vsUNH
UNHW 80-57
−1.5
12
@BING
BINGW 73-65
+1.5
14
vsBRY
BRYW 90-63
+19.5
over 16under 9avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
UMBC
22 games played
Straight up
14-8
64% wins
Against the spread
12-10
55% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-11
50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ DAY | L 71-77 | +25.5 | W +19.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ MORG | W 81-79 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 162.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 16 | vs WAG | W 71-70 | -6.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 19 | @ GW | L 52-89 | +22.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 29 | vs DSU | W 71-57 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 138.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 3 | @ GTWN | L 81-90 | +19.5 | W +10.5 | 149.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 6 | @ BUCK | W 73-66 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 9 | vsBUF | L 79-83 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 12 | vs ARMY | L 60-63 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 21 | @ USF | L 69-94 | +22.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 29 | @ COPP | W 93-59 | -10.5 | W +23.5 | 148.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 8 | vsME | W 69-62 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 133.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 10 | vsUNH | W 75-74 | -6.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 15 | @BRY | L 74-79 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 135.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 19 | @BING | W 78-60 | -4.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 22 | vsNJIT | W 87-74 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 24 | vsUML | W 79-56 | -2.5 | W +20.5 | 151.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 29 | @UVM | L 55-64 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 141.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 31 | @UALB | W 68-65 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 5 | vsBING | W 79-62 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 138.5 | O 141 |
| Feb 12 | @ME | W 78-62 | -3.5 | W +12.5 | 135.5 | O 140 |
| Feb 14 | @UNH | W 85-63 | -2.5 | W +19.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@DAY
DAYL 71-77
+19.5
11
@MORG
MORGW 81-79
−2.5
16
vsWAG
WAGW 71-70
−5.5
19
@GW
GWL 52-89
−14.5
29
vsDSU
DSUW 71-57
+0.5
3
@GTWN
GTWNL 81-90
+10.5
6
@BUCK
BUCKW 73-66
+8.5
9
vsBUF
BUFL 79-83
−0.5
12
vsARMY
ARMYL 60-63
−10.5
21
@USF
USFL 69-94
−2.5
29
@COPP
COPPW 93-59
+23.5
8
vsME
MEW 69-62
−0.5
10
vsUNH
UNHW 75-74
−5.5
15
@BRY
BRYL 74-79
−6.5
19
@BING
BINGW 78-60
+13.5
22
vsNJIT
NJITW 87-74
+6.5
24
vsUML
UMLW 79-56
+20.5
29
@UVM
UVML 55-64
−0.5
31
@UALB
UALBW 68-65
+1.5
5
vsBING
BINGW 79-62
+5.5
12
@ME
MEW 78-62
+12.5
14
@UNH
UNHW 85-63
+19.5
covered 12didn’t cover 10avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@DAY
DAYL 71-77
−6.5
11
@MORG
MORGW 81-79
−2.5
16
vsWAG
WAGW 71-70
+0.5
19
@GW
GWL 52-89
−19.5
29
vsDSU
DSUW 71-57
−10.5
3
@GTWN
GTWNL 81-90
+21.5
6
@BUCK
BUCKW 73-66
−4.5
9
vsBUF
BUFL 79-83
+16.5
12
vsARMY
ARMYL 60-63
−23.5
21
@USF
USFL 69-94
+2.5
29
@COPP
COPPW 93-59
+3.5
8
vsME
MEW 69-62
−2.5
10
vsUNH
UNHW 75-74
+5.5
15
@BRY
BRYL 74-79
+17.5
19
@BING
BINGW 78-60
−2.5
22
vsNJIT
NJITW 87-74
+17.5
24
vsUML
UMLW 79-56
−16.5
29
@UVM
UVML 55-64
−22.5
31
@UALB
UALBW 68-65
−8.5
5
vsBING
BINGW 79-62
+2.5
12
@ME
MEW 78-62
+4.5
14
@UNH
UNHW 85-63
+1.5
over 11under 11avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Vermont
15-10 overall · 9-3 in conference · America East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Bryant90–63
- W@ Binghamton73–65
- Wvs New Hampshire80–57
- L@ Maine70–76
- Lvs NJIT77–79
5 days since their last game.
UMBC
14-8 overall · 9-2 in conference · America East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ New Hampshire85–63
- W@ Maine78–62
- Wvs Binghamton79–62
- W@ UAlbany68–65
- L@ Vermont55–64
5 days since their last game.