McKenzie Arena · at Chattanooga · Conference game
Closing line
MER -4.5✓ UTC covered by 8.5
MER -4.5✓ UTC covered by 8.5Closing total155.5Under by 1.5
| MER | This season | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| 12-8 | Record | 6-14 |
| 16-4 | ATS | 9-11 |
| 11-9 | O/U | 9-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MER 80–76 UTC · ✗ MER (66%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MER | 37 | 38 | 75 |
| UTC | 34 | 45 | 79 |
1st half: MER 37, UTC 34 (MER by 3). The model had MER by 2.9 and a total of 72.9 (actual 71).
Team stats
| MER | UTC | |
|---|---|---|
| 18-58 31% | Field goals | 25-46 54% |
| 6-24 25% | 3-pointers | 10-22 45% |
| 33-43 77% | Free throws | 19-25 76% |
| 34 16 off | Rebounds | 25 3 off |
| 9 | Assists | 16 |
| 8 | Steals | 4 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 17 |
| 19 | Fouls | 29 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 20 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| MER | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baraka Okojie G | 38 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 4-18 | 0-6 |
| Brady Shoulders G | 35 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Armani Mighty C | 34 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Kyle Cuffe Jr. G | 27 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3-13 | 3-10 |
| Zaire Williams G | 20 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Connor Serven F | 20 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Quinton Perkins II G | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Tristan Gross G | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Bendji Pierre F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Pero Zubac, NJ Nganga, Jaydon Cole, Braeden Carlsen, Alex Koch, Petras Padegimas, TJ Grant
| UTC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tate Darner G | 35 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 6-11 | 1-4 |
| Brennan Watkins G | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 3-6 | 3-5 |
| Teddy Washington Jr. G | 26 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Houston Holland G | 24 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Makai Richards C | 17 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Frison G | 22 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 5-10 | 1-2 |
| Josh Bowman F | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Billy Smith G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Parker Robison G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jikari Johnson G | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Collin Mulholland F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Zach Bleshoy, Latif Diouf, Liam Vitters, Ryan Lopez, Sean Cusano, Sebastian Hartmann
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMER -4.5
ModelMER -4.6
Model edgeMER +0.1
L UTC covered
Total
Market155.5
Model155.9
Model edgeOver 0.4
L Under
Projected score
MER 80.3 · UTC 75.6
MER 75 · UTC 79
Win probability
MER 66%
1st half
Spread
MER -2.9
MER -3.0
Total
72.9
71 points
Projected score
MER 37.9 · UTC 35
MER 37 · UTC 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMER -5.5
1 → UTC
CloseMER -4.5
1 pt toward UTC
Total
Open154.5
▲ 1
Close155.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
MER -205 · UTC +170
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MER -5.5 · closed MER -4.5 · moved 1 toward UTCmodel MER -4.5 matches the line
model MER -4.5 = line ✓
Opened 154.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 1 upmodel 156
model 156
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MER | 7-3 70% | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% |
| UTC | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
MER 1–8 UTCUTC leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UTC has won the last 2 meetings · MER 4-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | MER 61 vs UTC 76 | UTC -9.5 | UTC W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | MER 84 @ UTC 93 | UTC -7.5 | UTC W |
| Jan 1, 2024-25 | UTC 94 @ MER 99 | MER +1.5 | MER W |
| Feb 28, 2023-24 | MER 75 @ UTC 84 | UTC -9.5 | MER W |
| Jan 17, 2023-24 | UTC 74 @ MER 60 | MER +2.5 | UTC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mercer
20 games played
Straight up
12-8
60% wins
Against the spread
16-4
80% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-9
55% overs · avg +6.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TENN | L 61-76 | +28.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 9 | vs LIP | W 92-77 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 15 | @ WIN | L 69-105 | +2.5 | L −33.5 | 162.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 22 | @ EKU | W 95-83 | +4.5 | W +16.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 26 | vs APP | W 75-67 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | @ ELON | W 91-84 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 2 | vs GAST | W 78-67 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 13 | @ CLEM | L 63-70 | +22.5 | W +15.5 | 152.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 17 | @ UCF | L 63-81 | +16.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 20 | @ WSU | L 78-84 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 31 | @ FUR | L 72-74 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 3 | @ ETSU | L 71-77 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vs CIT | W 101-63 | -16.5 | W +21.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 10 | vs WOF | W 109-97 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 206 |
| Jan 15 | @ VMI | W 77-67 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | @ UNCG | W 102-92 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | O 194 |
| Jan 21 | vs WCU | W 88-76 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 24 | @WOF | L 77-80 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 29 | vsUNCG | W 95-77 | -10.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 31 | vsVMI | W 95-81 | -18.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | O 176 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TENN
TENNL 61-76
+13.5
9
vsLIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@WIN
WINL 69-105
−33.5
22
@EKU
EKUW 95-83
+16.5
26
vsAPP
APPW 75-67
+1.5
29
@ELON
ELONW 91-84
+9.5
2
vsGAST
GASTW 78-67
+0.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 63-70
+15.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 63-81
−1.5
20
@WSU
WSUL 78-84
+1.5
31
@FUR
FURL 72-74
+0.5
3
@ETSU
ETSUL 71-77
+1.5
7
vsCIT
CITW 101-63
+21.5
10
vsWOF
WOFW 109-97
+8.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 77-67
+1.5
17
@UNCG
UNCGW 102-92
+4.5
21
vsWCU
WCUW 88-76
+3.5
24
@WOF
WOFL 77-80
−5.5
29
vsUNCG
UNCGW 95-77
+7.5
31
vsVMI
VMIW 95-81
−4.5
covered 16didn’t cover 4avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TENN
TENNL 61-76
−6.5
9
vsLIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@WIN
WINL 69-105
+11.5
22
@EKU
EKUW 95-83
+14.5
26
vsAPP
APPW 75-67
−0.5
29
@ELON
ELONW 91-84
+15.5
2
vsGAST
GASTW 78-67
−10.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 63-70
−19.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 63-81
−16.5
20
@WSU
WSUL 78-84
+10.5
31
@FUR
FURL 72-74
−8.5
3
@ETSU
ETSUL 71-77
−0.5
7
vsCIT
CITW 101-63
+16.5
10
vsWOF
WOFW 109-97
+49.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 77-67
−9.5
17
@UNCG
UNCGW 102-92
+38.5
21
vsWCU
WCUW 88-76
+5.5
24
@WOF
WOFL 77-80
−0.5
29
vsUNCG
UNCGW 95-77
+13.5
31
vsVMI
VMIW 95-81
+22.5
over 11under 9avg +6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Chattanooga
20 games played
Straight up
6-14
30% wins
Against the spread
9-11
45% covers · avg −5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-11
45% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ SMC | L 66-87 | +15.5 | L −5.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 8 | @ UNLV | L 69-101 | +7.5 | L −24.5 | 155.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 15 | @ FGCU | L 73-91 | -1.5 | L −19.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 19 | @ SCST | W 78-66 | -11.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNA | W 71-57 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 30 | vs TNST | L 64-70 | -8.5 | L −14.5 | 155.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 6 | vs SEMO | L 70-74 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 13 | vs AUB | L 78-92 | +19.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 17 | @ BELL | L 64-79 | -1.5 | L −16.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 21 | @ AAMU | W 73-66 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 138.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 1 | @UNCG | L 72-77 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 3 | @VMI | L 71-79 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 7 | vsFUR | L 67-78 | +2.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 10 | vs SAM | W 88-79 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 14 | @WOF | W 76-67 | +5.5 | W +14.5 | 154.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 17 | @WCU | W 90-82 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 150.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 21 | vsETSU | L 66-67 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 24 | @SAM | L 64-75 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 29 | vsWOF | L 55-81 | -1.5 | L −27.5 | 150.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 1 | @FUR | L 70-75 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@SMC
SMCL 66-87
−5.5
8
@UNLV
UNLVL 69-101
−24.5
15
@FGCU
FGCUL 73-91
−19.5
19
@SCST
SCSTW 78-66
+0.5
22
vsUNA
UNAW 71-57
+4.5
30
vsTNST
TNSTL 64-70
−14.5
6
vsSEMO
SEMOL 70-74
−7.5
13
vsAUB
AUBL 78-92
+5.5
17
@BELL
BELLL 64-79
−16.5
21
@AAMU
AAMUW 73-66
+4.5
1
@UNCG
UNCGL 72-77
−7.5
3
@VMI
VMIL 71-79
−14.5
7
vsFUR
FURL 67-78
−8.5
10
vsSAM
SAMW 88-79
+7.5
14
@WOF
WOFW 76-67
+14.5
17
@WCU
WCUW 90-82
+9.5
21
vsETSU
ETSUL 66-67
+3.5
24
@SAM
SAML 64-75
−6.5
29
vsWOF
WOFL 55-81
−27.5
1
@FUR
FURL 70-75
+2.5
covered 9didn’t cover 11avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@SMC
SMCL 66-87
+7.5
8
@UNLV
UNLVL 69-101
+14.5
15
@FGCU
FGCUL 73-91
+11.5
19
@SCST
SCSTW 78-66
−10.5
22
vsUNA
UNAW 71-57
−21.5
30
vsTNST
TNSTL 64-70
−21.5
6
vsSEMO
SEMOL 70-74
−5.5
13
vsAUB
AUBL 78-92
+19.5
17
@BELL
BELLL 64-79
−3.5
21
@AAMU
AAMUW 73-66
+0.5
1
@UNCG
UNCGL 72-77
+1.5
3
@VMI
VMIL 71-79
+0.5
7
vsFUR
FURL 67-78
−1.5
10
vsSAM
SAMW 88-79
+18.5
14
@WOF
WOFW 76-67
−11.5
17
@WCU
WCUW 90-82
+21.5
21
vsETSU
ETSUL 66-67
−10.5
24
@SAM
SAML 64-75
−13.5
29
vsWOF
WOFL 55-81
−14.5
1
@FUR
FURL 70-75
−1.5
over 9under 11avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mercer
12-8 overall · 7-3 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs VMI95–81
- Wvs UNC Greensboro95–77
- L@ Wofford77–80
- Wvs W Carolina88–76
- W@ UNC Greensboro102–92
5 days since their last game.
Chattanooga
6-14 overall · 3-7 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Furman70–75
- Lvs Wofford55–81
- L@ Samford64–75
- Lvs ETSU66–67
- W@ W Carolina90–82
4 days since their last game.