Hawkins Arena · at Mercer · Conference game
Closing line
MER -10.5✓ MER covered by 7.5
MER -10.5✓ MER covered by 7.5Closing total158.5Over by 13.5
 UNCG | This season | MER |
|---|---|---|
| 6-13 | Record | 10-8 |
| 6-13 | ATS | 15-3 |
| 13-6 | O/U | 9-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNCG 74–86 MER · ✓ MER (84%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNCG | 29 | 48 | 77 |
| MER | 43 | 52 | 95 |
1st half: UNCG 29, MER 43 (MER by 14). The model had MER by 6.8 and a total of 74.9 (actual 72).
Team stats
| UNCG | MER | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-70 39% | Field goals | 32-68 47% |
| 10-34 29% | 3-pointers | 16-40 40% |
| 13-18 72% | Free throws | 15-21 71% |
| 40 15 off | Rebounds | 46 14 off |
| 15 | Assists | 16 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 0 | Blocks | 5 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 23 |
Players
| UNCG | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Neely F | 34 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 4-11 | 1-4 |
| KJ Younger G | 33 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 11-20 | 4-9 |
| Noah Norgaard G | 32 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6-9 | 3-6 |
| Donald Whitehead Jr. G | 30 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
| Valentino Pinedo F | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Clinton Efinda F | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Domas Kauzonas F | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Chane Bynum F | 10 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| Clyde Bailey II G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Landon King G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Braylen Bowman G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Lilian Marville, Antwann Jones, Assane Mandian, Jordan Brown
| MER | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baraka Okojie G | 36 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 4-11 | 3-5 |
| Kyle Cuffe Jr. G | 29 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 6-14 | 3-10 |
| Zaire Williams G | 29 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5-15 | 2-8 |
| Armani Mighty C | 26 | 13 | 14 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Brady Shoulders G | 24 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 6-8 | 4-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Connor Serven F | 19 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Tristan Gross G | 19 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Bendji Pierre F | 13 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-4 |
| Alex Koch F | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Braeden Carlsen G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| TJ Grant G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Pero Zubac F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaydon Cole G | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: NJ Nganga, Petras Padegimas, Quinton Perkins II
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMER -10.5
ModelMER -11.6
Model edgeMER +1.1
W MER covered
Total
Market158.5
Model160.0
Model edgeOver 1.5
W Over
Projected score
UNCG 74.2 · MER 85.8
UNCG 77 · MER 95
Win probability
MER 84%
1st half
Spread
MER -6.8
MER -14.0
Total
74.9
72 points
Projected score
UNCG 34.1 · MER 40.8
UNCG 29 · MER 43
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMER -12.5
2 → UNCG
CloseMER -10.5
2 pts toward UNCG
Total
Open161.5
▼ 3
Close158.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
UNCG +500 · MER -700
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MER -12.5 · closed MER -10.5 · moved 2 toward UNCGmodel MER -11.5
model MER -11.5
Opened 161.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 3 downmodel 160
model 160
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNCG | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
| MER | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
UNCG 3–6 MERMER leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UNCG 3-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2025-26 | MER 102 @ UNCG 92 | UNCG +5.5 | MER W |
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | UNCG 78 @ MER 61 | MER +2.5 | UNCG W |
| Jan 22, 2024-25 | MER 79 @ UNCG 78 | UNCG -8.5 | MER W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | UNCG 72 @ MER 86 | MER +4.5 | MER W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | MER 70 @ UNCG 64 | UNCG -11.5 | MER W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UNC Greensboro
19 games played
Straight up
6-13
32% wins
Against the spread
6-13
32% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-6
68% overs · avg +9.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ KSU | L 64-93 | +18.5 | L −10.5 | 148.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 8 | vs ELON | L 90-92 | -4.5 | L −6.5 | 142.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 12 | @ NCSU | L 64-110 | +30.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 15 | vs APSU | L 63-69 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 20 | @ QUC | L 94-101 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 23 | vs YSU | W 68-62 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 25 | vs DEL | L 60-73 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 142.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs M-OH | L 71-82 | +10.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNCA | L 77-82 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ ECU | W 82-78 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 139.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 16 | vs NCAT | L 65-71 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 1 | vs UTC | W 77-72 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 3 | vs SAM | W 89-82 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 7 | @ WOF | L 85-97 | +7.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 10 | @ ETSU | L 60-86 | +11.5 | L −14.5 | 148.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 15 | vs CIT | W 69-66 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 17 | vsMER | L 92-102 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | O 194 |
| Jan 21 | @ VMI | W 85-78 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 151.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 23 | vs FUR | L 66-89 | +4.5 | L −18.5 | 150.5 | O 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@KSU
KSUL 64-93
−10.5
8
vsELON
ELONL 90-92
−6.5
12
@NCSU
NCSUL 64-110
−15.5
15
vsAPSU
APSUL 63-69
−7.5
20
@QUC
QUCL 94-101
+0.5
23
vsYSU
YSUW 68-62
+11.5
25
vsDEL
DELL 60-73
−14.5
26
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-82
−0.5
2
vsUNCA
UNCAL 77-82
−0.5
6
@ECU
ECUW 82-78
+11.5
16
vsNCAT
NCATL 65-71
−12.5
1
vsUTC
UTCW 77-72
+7.5
3
vsSAM
SAMW 89-82
+9.5
7
@WOF
WOFL 85-97
−4.5
10
@ETSU
ETSUL 60-86
−14.5
15
vsCIT
CITW 69-66
−6.5
17
vsMER
MERL 92-102
−4.5
21
@VMI
VMIW 85-78
+4.5
23
vsFUR
FURL 66-89
−18.5
covered 6didn’t cover 13avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@KSU
KSUL 64-93
+8.5
8
vsELON
ELONL 90-92
+39.5
12
@NCSU
NCSUL 64-110
+20.5
15
vsAPSU
APSUL 63-69
−13.5
20
@QUC
QUCL 94-101
+44.5
23
vsYSU
YSUW 68-62
−22.5
25
vsDEL
DELL 60-73
−9.5
26
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-82
+2.5
2
vsUNCA
UNCAL 77-82
+15.5
6
@ECU
ECUW 82-78
+20.5
16
vsNCAT
NCATL 65-71
−11.5
1
vsUTC
UTCW 77-72
+1.5
3
vsSAM
SAMW 89-82
+19.5
7
@WOF
WOFL 85-97
+28.5
10
@ETSU
ETSUL 60-86
−2.5
15
vsCIT
CITW 69-66
−13.5
17
vsMER
MERL 92-102
+38.5
21
@VMI
VMIW 85-78
+11.5
23
vsFUR
FURL 66-89
+4.5
over 13under 6avg +9.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mercer
18 games played
Straight up
10-8
56% wins
Against the spread
15-3
83% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-9
50% overs · avg +5.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TENN | L 61-76 | +28.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 9 | vs LIP | W 92-77 | -3.5 | W +11.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 15 | @ WIN | L 69-105 | +2.5 | L −33.5 | 162.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 22 | @ EKU | W 95-83 | +4.5 | W +16.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 26 | vs APP | W 75-67 | -6.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | @ELON | W 91-84 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 2 | vs GAST | W 78-67 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 13 | @ CLEM | L 63-70 | +22.5 | W +15.5 | 152.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 17 | @ UCF | L 63-81 | +16.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 20 | @ WSU | L 78-84 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 31 | @FUR | L 72-74 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 3 | @ETSU | L 71-77 | +7.5 | W +1.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vsCIT | W 101-63 | -16.5 | W +21.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 10 | vsWOF | W 109-97 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 206 |
| Jan 15 | @VMI | W 77-67 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | @UNCG | W 102-92 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | O 194 |
| Jan 21 | vs WCU | W 88-76 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 24 | @WOF | L 77-80 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TENN
TENNL 61-76
+13.5
9
vsLIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@WIN
WINL 69-105
−33.5
22
@EKU
EKUW 95-83
+16.5
26
vsAPP
APPW 75-67
+1.5
29
@ELON
ELONW 91-84
+9.5
2
vsGAST
GASTW 78-67
+0.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 63-70
+15.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 63-81
−1.5
20
@WSU
WSUL 78-84
+1.5
31
@FUR
FURL 72-74
+0.5
3
@ETSU
ETSUL 71-77
+1.5
7
vsCIT
CITW 101-63
+21.5
10
vsWOF
WOFW 109-97
+8.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 77-67
+1.5
17
@UNCG
UNCGW 102-92
+4.5
21
vsWCU
WCUW 88-76
+3.5
24
@WOF
WOFL 77-80
−5.5
covered 15didn’t cover 3avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TENN
TENNL 61-76
−6.5
9
vsLIP
LIPW 92-77
+11.5
15
@WIN
WINL 69-105
+11.5
22
@EKU
EKUW 95-83
+14.5
26
vsAPP
APPW 75-67
−0.5
29
@ELON
ELONW 91-84
+15.5
2
vsGAST
GASTW 78-67
−10.5
13
@CLEM
CLEML 63-70
−19.5
17
@UCF
UCFL 63-81
−16.5
20
@WSU
WSUL 78-84
+10.5
31
@FUR
FURL 72-74
−8.5
3
@ETSU
ETSUL 71-77
−0.5
7
vsCIT
CITW 101-63
+16.5
10
vsWOF
WOFW 109-97
+49.5
15
@VMI
VMIW 77-67
−9.5
17
@UNCG
UNCGW 102-92
+38.5
21
vsWCU
WCUW 88-76
+5.5
24
@WOF
WOFL 77-80
−0.5
over 9under 9avg +5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UNC Greensboro
6-13 overall · 4-4 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Furman66–89
- W@ VMI85–78
- Lvs Mercer92–102
- Wvs The Citadel69–66
- L@ ETSU60–86
6 days since their last game.
Mercer
10-8 overall · 5-3 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Wofford77–80
- Wvs W Carolina88–76
- W@ UNC Greensboro102–92
- W@ VMI77–67
- Wvs Wofford109–97
5 days since their last game.