GSU Convocation Center · at Georgia St · Conference game
Closing line
GAST -1.5✓ GAST covered by 5.5
GAST -1.5✓ GAST covered by 5.5Closing total144.5Under by 13.5
 USM | This season | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| 9-9 | Record | 5-12 |
| 7-11 | ATS | 8-9 |
| 11-7 | O/U | 6-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USM 73–72 GAST · ✗ USM (53%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 32 | 30 | 62 |
| GAST | 30 | 39 | 69 |
1st half: USM 32, GAST 30 (USM by 2). The model had USM by 0.6 and a total of 68.1 (actual 62).
Team stats
| USM | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-58 38% | Field goals | 20-56 36% |
| 5-20 25% | 3-pointers | 8-24 33% |
| 13-19 68% | Free throws | 21-29 72% |
| 30 6 off | Rebounds | 45 12 off |
| 11 | Assists | 10 |
| 6 | Steals | 7 |
| 4 | Blocks | 6 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 23 | Fouls | 19 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Brumfield G | 38 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 6-12 | 0-1 |
| Israel Hart G | 26 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0-6 | 0-4 |
| Djahi Binet F | 25 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Tylik Weeks F | 19 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 3-11 | 0-0 |
| Fallou Diagne C | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brewer Carruth G | 23 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 5-8 | 1-3 |
| Curt Lewis G | 23 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Tegra Izay C | 15 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 13 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Felipe Patino G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| EJ Paymon F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jett Montgomery, Dalyn Brandon, Isaac Taveras, Blake Lander, Robert Cowherd, IJ Ezuma, Chandler Watts
| GAST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Tucker G | 38 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 5-14 | 2-4 |
| Jelani Hamilton G | 32 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 6-13 | 2-7 |
| Malachi Brown G | 32 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 4-12 | 2-6 |
| Anthony Enoh F | 25 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| James Cooper F | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trey Scott F | 21 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 4-10 | 2-5 |
| Ayouba Berthe G | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Joah Chappelle F | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Christian Beam C | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jakai Newton G | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kwame Tanic, Clash Peters, Manos Koveos, Isaiah Sherrard, Chris Jones
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketGAST -1.5
ModelUSM -0.8
Model edgeUSM +2.3
L GAST covered
Total
Market144.5
Model145.5
Model edgeOver 1.0
L Under
Projected score
USM 73.1 · GAST 72.3
USM 62 · GAST 69
Win probability
USM 53%
1st half
Spread
USM -0.6
USM -2.0
Total
68.1
62 points
Projected score
USM 34.4 · GAST 33.8
USM 32 · GAST 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSM -1.5
3 → GAST
CloseGAST -1.5
3 pts toward GAST
Total
Open144.5
no move
Close144.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
USM +114 · GAST -135
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USM -1.5 · closed GAST -1.5 · moved 3 toward GASTmodel USM -1
model USM -1
Opened 144.5 · unchangedmodel 145.5
model 145.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| GAST | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
USM 2–0 GASTUSM leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · USM has won the last 2 meetings · USM 2-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2023-24 | GAST 73 @ USM 79 | USM -2.5 | USM W |
| Feb 4, 2022-23 | USM 79 @ GAST 71 | GAST +4.5 | USM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern Miss
18 games played
Straight up
9-9
50% wins
Against the spread
7-11
39% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-7
61% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs UL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | @ LSU | L 62-90 | +21.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 1 | @ ULM | W 87-73 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 3 | @UL | W 74-67 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 129.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vs TXST | W 80-70 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | vsULM | W 70-60 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 14 | @ TROY | L 65-91 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 17 | @TXST | L 67-74 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−6.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+4.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+3.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+7.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−4.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
−17.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
−4.5
covered 7didn’t cover 11avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−2.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+7.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+11.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+5.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−25.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
+10.5
17
@TXST
TXSTL 67-74
+0.5
over 11under 7avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Georgia St
17 games played
Straight up
5-12
29% wins
Against the spread
8-9
47% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-11
35% overs · avg −5.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ EMU | L 49-71 | +3.5 | L −18.5 | 149.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 7 | @ CIN | L 64-74 | +29.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 10 | vs PRES | L 61-63 | -3.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 17 | @ ASU | L 62-75 | +18.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 21 | @ SDST | L 58-105 | +12.5 | L −34.5 | 143.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 25 | vs SAM | L 63-78 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 26 | vs NMSU | L 58-77 | +12.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ MER | L 67-78 | +10.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 6 | @ KENN | L 69-92 | +14.5 | L −8.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 13 | vs JXST | W 77-73 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 139.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 18 | @ GASO | L 67-90 | +9.5 | L −13.5 | 159.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 20 | @ APP | W 70-63 | +7.5 | W +14.5 | 137.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 31 | @ MRSH | L 80-84 | +13.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | @ CCU | W 89-71 | +6.5 | W +24.5 | 148.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 8 | vsAPP | L 50-52 | +1.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | U 102 |
| Jan 10 | vsMRSH | W 81-73 | +4.5 | W +12.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ULM | W 77-57 | -6.5 | W +13.5 | 155.5 | U 134 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@EMU
EMUL 49-71
−18.5
7
@CIN
CINL 64-74
+19.5
10
vsPRES
PRESL 61-63
−5.5
17
@ASU
ASUL 62-75
+5.5
21
@SDST
SDSTL 58-105
−34.5
25
vsSAM
SAML 63-78
−9.5
26
vsNMSU
NMSUL 58-77
−6.5
2
@MER
MERL 67-78
−0.5
6
@KENN
KENNL 69-92
−8.5
13
vsJXST
JXSTW 77-73
+7.5
18
@GASO
GASOL 67-90
−13.5
20
@APP
APPW 70-63
+14.5
31
@MRSH
MRSHL 80-84
+9.5
3
@CCU
CCUW 89-71
+24.5
8
vsAPP
APPL 50-52
−0.5
10
vsMRSH
MRSHW 81-73
+12.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 77-57
+13.5
covered 8didn’t cover 9avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@EMU
EMUL 49-71
−29.5
7
@CIN
CINL 64-74
−13.5
10
vsPRES
PRESL 61-63
−17.5
17
@ASU
ASUL 62-75
−8.5
21
@SDST
SDSTL 58-105
+19.5
25
vsSAM
SAML 63-78
−5.5
26
vsNMSU
NMSUL 58-77
−1.5
2
@MER
MERL 67-78
−10.5
6
@KENN
KENNL 69-92
+2.5
13
vsJXST
JXSTW 77-73
+10.5
18
@GASO
GASOL 67-90
−2.5
20
@APP
APPW 70-63
−4.5
31
@MRSH
MRSHL 80-84
+12.5
3
@CCU
CCUW 89-71
+11.5
8
vsAPP
APPL 50-52
−38.5
10
vsMRSH
MRSHW 81-73
+0.5
17
@ULM
ULMW 77-57
−21.5
over 6under 11avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern Miss
9-9 overall · 5-3 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Texas St67–74
- L@ Troy65–91
- Wvs UL Monroe70–60
- Wvs Texas St80–70
- W@ Louisiana74–67
5 days since their last game.
Georgia St
5-12 overall · 4-3 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UL Monroe77–57
- Wvs Marshall81–73
- Lvs App State50–52
- W@ Coastal89–71
- L@ Marshall80–84
5 days since their last game.