Strahan Arena at the University Events Center · at Texas St · Conference game
Closing line
TXST -2.5✓ TXST covered by 4.5
TXST -2.5✓ TXST covered by 4.5Closing total140.5Over by 0.5
 USM | This season | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| 9-8 | Record | 8-9 |
| 7-10 | ATS | 6-11 |
| 10-7 | O/U | 10-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USM 72–73 TXST · ✓ TXST (53%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 28 | 39 | 67 |
| TXST | 27 | 47 | 74 |
1st half: USM 28, TXST 27 (USM by 1). The model had TXST by 0.4 and a total of 67.8 (actual 55).
Team stats
| USM | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-52 42% | Field goals | 20-42 48% |
| 3-15 20% | 3-pointers | 6-13 46% |
| 20-24 83% | Free throws | 28-35 80% |
| 24 5 off | Rebounds | 33 6 off |
| 6 | Assists | 6 |
| 14 | Steals | 8 |
| 5 | Blocks | 3 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 25 | Fouls | 19 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Brumfield G | 36 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Tylik Weeks F | 36 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 8-15 | 0-1 |
| Djahi Binet F | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Brewer Carruth G | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-2 |
| Curt Lewis G | 24 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Israel Hart G | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-9 | 0-3 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Tegra Izay C | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Fallou Diagne C | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: EJ Paymon, Isaac Taveras, Jett Montgomery, Dalyn Brandon, Blake Lander, Robert Cowherd, Chandler Watts, Felipe Patino, IJ Ezuma
| TXST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Gumbs G | 38 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 6-10 | 2-3 |
| DJ Hall F | 33 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 5-10 | 0-0 |
| Kyndall Davis G | 32 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Tay Knox C | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Mark Drone G | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Franck Emmou G | 30 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 3-9 | 1-5 |
| Robert Fields C | 17 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Makai Willis C | 13 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Bolden G | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cameron Simpson, Jaelyn Lee, Isaiah Barganier, Ky Pernell, Dimp Pernell, Deke Thompson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTXST -2.5
ModelTXST -0.8
Model edgeUSM +1.6
L TXST covered
Total
Market140.5
Model144.6
Model edgeOver 4.1
W Over
Projected score
USM 71.9 · TXST 72.7
USM 67 · TXST 74
Win probability
TXST 53%
1st half
Spread
TXST -0.4
USM -1.0
Total
67.8
55 points
Projected score
USM 33.7 · TXST 34.1
USM 28 · TXST 27
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTXST -2.5
no move
CloseTXST -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open142.5
▼ 2
Close140.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
USM +120 · TXST -142
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TXST -2.5 · unchangedmodel TXST -1
model TXST -1
Opened 142.5 · closed 140.5 · moved 2 downmodel 144.5
model 144.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| TXST | 4-6 40% | 1-9 10% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
USM 5–3 TXSTUSM leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · USM 6-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2025-26 | TXST 70 @ USM 80 | USM -2.5 | USM W |
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | USM 82 @ TXST 85 | TXST -9.5 | USM W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | TXST 88 @ USM 92 | USM +3.5 | USM W |
| Mar 7, 2023-24 | TXST 75 vs USM 59 | USM -2.5 | TXST W |
| Feb 17, 2023-24 | TXST 74 @ USM 78 | USM -3.5 | USM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern Miss
17 games played
Straight up
9-8
53% wins
Against the spread
7-10
41% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-7
59% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs UL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | @ LSU | L 62-90 | +21.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 1 | @ ULM | W 87-73 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 3 | @UL | W 74-67 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 129.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 8 | vsTXST | W 80-70 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | vsULM | W 70-60 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 14 | @ TROY | L 65-91 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−6.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+4.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+3.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+7.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−4.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
−17.5
covered 7didn’t cover 10avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−2.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+7.5
3
@UL
ULW 74-67
+11.5
8
vsTXST
TXSTW 80-70
+5.5
10
vsULM
ULMW 70-60
−25.5
14
@TROY
TROYL 65-91
+10.5
over 10under 7avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Texas St
17 games played
Straight up
8-9
47% wins
Against the spread
6-11
35% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-7
59% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BGSU | L 48-83 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 8 | @ TULN | L 71-79 | +12.5 | W +4.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 12 | vs UTSA | W 80-69 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 15 | vs TXSO | W 77-67 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 18 | vs ACU | W 63-49 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | U 112 |
| Nov 21 | vs LR | W 65-56 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 131.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs SEA | L 52-66 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 29 | vs LEH | L 74-78 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 3 | @ RICE | L 72-77 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 133.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs SOU | W 86-83 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 17 | vsARST | L 70-89 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | vs USA | W 67-65 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 31 | @TROY | L 80-100 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ULM | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 8 | @USM | L 70-80 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @ARST | L 82-83 | +11.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 14 | vsUL | W 59-54 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 133.5 | U 113 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−29.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+4.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+8.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
+5.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
+12.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
+3.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−6.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
−10.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
−1.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
−0.5
17
vsARST
ARSTL 70-89
−14.5
20
vsUSA
USAW 67-65
−1.5
31
@TROY
TROYL 80-100
−11.5
3
@ULM
ULMW 84-79
−5.5
8
@USM
USML 70-80
−7.5
10
@ARST
ARSTL 82-83
+10.5
14
vsUL
ULW 59-54
−3.5
covered 6didn’t cover 11avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−15.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+3.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+1.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
−0.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
−26.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
−10.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−18.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
+16.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
+15.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
+26.5
17
vsARST
ARSTL 70-89
+7.5
20
vsUSA
USAW 67-65
−4.5
31
@TROY
TROYL 80-100
+34.5
3
@ULM
ULMW 84-79
+12.5
8
@USM
USML 70-80
+5.5
10
@ARST
ARSTL 82-83
+8.5
14
vsUL
ULW 59-54
−20.5
over 10under 7avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern Miss
9-8 overall · 5-2 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Troy65–91
- Wvs UL Monroe70–60
- Wvs Texas St80–70
- W@ Louisiana74–67
- W@ UL Monroe87–73
3 days since their last game.
Texas St
8-9 overall · 3-4 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Louisiana59–54
- L@ Arkansas St82–83
- L@ Southern Miss70–80
- W@ UL Monroe84–79
- L@ Troy80–100
3 days since their last game.