Moody Center · at Texas · Conference game
Closing line
TEX -10.5✓ LSU covered by 7.5
TEX -10.5✓ LSU covered by 7.5Closing total150.5Over by 22.5
 LSU | This season | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 14-11 | Record | 15-9 |
| 14-11 | ATS | 15-9 |
| 10-15 | O/U | 15-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LSU 76–83 TEX · ✓ TEX (71%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 33 | 52 | 85 |
| TEX | 48 | 40 | 88 |
1st half: LSU 33, TEX 48 (TEX by 15). The model had TEX by 3.7 and a total of 74.2 (actual 81).
Team stats
| LSU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-62 52% | Field goals | 29-52 56% |
| 5-12 42% | 3-pointers | 7-13 54% |
| 16-19 84% | Free throws | 23-34 68% |
| 27 7 off | Rebounds | 34 8 off |
| 13 | Assists | 9 |
| 7 | Steals | 4 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 25 | Fouls | 14 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| LSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Reece G | 37 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 4-12 | 2-4 |
| Marquel Sutton F | 35 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 6-10 | 1-2 |
| Pablo Tamba F | 32 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Mike Nwoko F | 20 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 7-13 | 0-0 |
| Rashad King G | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Max Mackinnon G | 33 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 11-17 | 2-4 |
| Robert Miller III F | 20 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Mazi Mosley G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| PJ Carter G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Marcus Vaughn, Jalen Reed, Ron Zipper, Matt Gilhool, Jaden Bobbett, Dedan Thomas Jr.
| TEX | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camden Heide F | 37 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Tramon Mark G | 35 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 6-12 | 2-4 |
| Matas Vokietaitis C | 33 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 6-11 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Pope G | 27 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 5-8 | 3-3 |
| Dailyn Swain G | 21 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 7-12 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Simeon Wilcher G | 21 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Chendall Weaver G | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Nic Codie F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Lewis Obiorah, Declan Duru Jr., Anthon McDermott, Brandon Taylor, John Clark, Lassina Traore, Cole Bott
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTEX -10.5
ModelTEX -6.4
Model edgeLSU +4.1
W LSU covered
Total
Market150.5
Model158.8
Model edgeOver 8.3
W Over
Projected score
LSU 76.2 · TEX 82.6
LSU 85 · TEX 88
Win probability
TEX 71%
1st half
Spread
TEX -3.7
TEX -15.0
Total
74.2
81 points
Projected score
LSU 35.3 · TEX 38.9
LSU 33 · TEX 48
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTEX -9.5
1 → TEX
CloseTEX -10.5
1 pt toward TEX
Total
Open155.5
▼ 5
Close150.5
Down 5 since the open
Moneyline
LSU +490 · TEX -675
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TEX -9.5 · closed TEX -10.5 · moved 1 toward TEXmodel TEX -6.5
model TEX -6.5
Opened 155.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 5 downmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% |
| TEX | 7-3 70% | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LSU 0–2 TEXTEX leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · TEX has won the last 2 meetings · LSU 0-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | TEX 89 @ LSU 58 | LSU +1.5 | TEX W |
| Dec 16, 2023-24 | LSU 85 vs TEX 96 | TEX -7.5 | TEX W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
LSU
25 games played
Straight up
14-11
56% wins
Against the spread
14-11
56% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-15
40% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs TAR | W 96-60 | -15.5 | W +20.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 10 | vs NOLA | W 93-58 | -19.5 | W +15.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 13 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -21.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 18 | vs ALCN | W 107-81 | -32.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 21 | vs OMA | W 99-73 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 28 | vs DRKE | W 71-62 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 29 | vs DEP | W 96-63 | -5.5 | W +27.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 3 | @ BC | W 78-69 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 7 | vs TTU | L 58-82 | +5.5 | L −18.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vs SMU | W 89-77 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs SELA | W 78-65 | -24.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 22 | vs PV | W 104-90 | -29.5 | L −15.5 | 161.5 | O 194 |
| Dec 29 | vs USM | W 90-62 | -21.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 3 | @ TA&M | L 72-75 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 6 | vs SC | L 68-78 | -7.5 | L −17.5 | 145.5 | O 146 |
| Jan 10 | @ VAN | L 73-84 | +13.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 14 | vs UK | L 74-75 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | vs MIZ | W 78-70 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 20 | @ FLA | L 61-79 | +15.5 | L −2.5 | 158.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | @ ARK | L 81-85 | +10.5 | W +6.5 | 163.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 28 | vs MSST | L 66-80 | -7.5 | L −21.5 | 154.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 31 | @SC | W 92-87 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 7 | vs UGA | L 71-83 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 161.5 | U 154 |
| Feb 10 | vsARK | L 62-91 | +4.5 | L −24.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 14 | @ TENN | L 63-73 | +14.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+20.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
+15.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−4.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
−6.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+5.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−2.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+27.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
+1.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−18.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+10.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−11.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
−15.5
29
vsUSM
USMW 90-62
+6.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 72-75
+2.5
6
vsSC
SCL 68-78
−17.5
10
@VAN
VANL 73-84
+2.5
14
vsUK
UKL 74-75
+2.5
17
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-70
+6.5
20
@FLA
FLAL 61-79
−2.5
24
@ARK
ARKL 81-85
+6.5
28
vsMSST
MSSTL 66-80
−21.5
31
@SC
SCW 92-87
+2.5
7
vsUGA
UGAL 71-83
−10.5
10
vsARK
ARKL 62-91
−24.5
14
@TENN
TENNL 63-73
+4.5
covered 14didn’t cover 11avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsTAR
TARW 96-60
+7.5
10
vsNOLA
NOLAW 93-58
−11.5
13
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+20.5
18
vsALCN
ALCNW 107-81
+32.5
21
vsOMA
OMAW 99-73
+8.5
28
vsDRKE
DRKEW 71-62
−18.5
29
vsDEP
DEPW 96-63
+6.5
3
@BC
BCW 78-69
−2.5
7
vsTTU
TTUL 58-82
−14.5
13
vsSMU
SMUW 89-77
+7.5
19
vsSELA
SELAW 78-65
−1.5
22
vsPV
PVW 104-90
+32.5
29
vsUSM
USMW 90-62
−2.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 72-75
−21.5
6
vsSC
SCL 68-78
+0.5
10
@VAN
VANL 73-84
−2.5
14
vsUK
UKL 74-75
−2.5
17
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-70
−0.5
20
@FLA
FLAL 61-79
−18.5
24
@ARK
ARKL 81-85
+2.5
28
vsMSST
MSSTL 66-80
−8.5
31
@SC
SCW 92-87
+31.5
7
vsUGA
UGAL 71-83
−7.5
10
vsARK
ARKL 62-91
−6.5
14
@TENN
TENNL 63-73
−7.5
over 10under 15avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Texas
24 games played
Straight up
15-9
63% wins
Against the spread
15-9
63% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-9
63% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs DUKE | L 60-75 | +10.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs LAF | W 97-60 | -25.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 12 | vs FDU | W 93-58 | -31.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs KC | W 71-55 | -31.5 | L −15.5 | 159.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 18 | vs RID | W 99-65 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs ASU | L 86-87 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 153.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 26 | vs NCSU | W 102-97 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | vs UVA | L 69-88 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 8 | vs SOU | W 95-69 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 12 | @ CONN | L 63-71 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs LEM | W 95-53 | -29.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 22 | vs UMES | W 94-71 | -33.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 3 | vsMSST | L 98-101 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 6 | @TENN | L 71-85 | +12.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | @ ALA | W 92-88 | +11.5 | W +15.5 | 177.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 14 | vsVAN | W 80-64 | +3.5 | W +19.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vsTA&M | L 70-74 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 166.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 21 | @UK | L 80-85 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vsUGA | W 87-67 | -3.5 | W +16.5 | 168.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 28 | @ AUB | L 82-88 | +6.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 31 | @ OU | W 79-69 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 3 | vsSC | W 84-75 | -13.5 | L −4.5 | 149.5 | O 159 |
| Feb 7 | vs MISS | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 147 |
| Feb 14 | @MIZ | W 85-68 | +2.5 | W +19.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-75
−4.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 97-60
+11.5
12
vsFDU
FDUW 93-58
+3.5
15
vsKC
KCW 71-55
−15.5
18
vsRID
RIDW 99-65
+3.5
24
vsASU
ASUL 86-87
−7.5
26
vsNCSU
NCSUW 102-97
+6.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 69-88
−22.5
8
vsSOU
SOUW 95-69
+3.5
12
@CONN
CONNL 63-71
+3.5
16
vsLEM
LEMW 95-53
+12.5
22
vsUMES
UMESW 94-71
−10.5
3
vsMSST
MSSTL 98-101
−12.5
6
@TENN
TENNL 71-85
−1.5
10
@ALA
ALAW 92-88
+15.5
14
vsVAN
VANW 80-64
+19.5
17
vsTA&M
TA&ML 70-74
−8.5
21
@UK
UKL 80-85
+2.5
24
vsUGA
UGAW 87-67
+16.5
28
@AUB
AUBL 82-88
+0.5
31
@OU
OUW 79-69
+8.5
3
vsSC
SCW 84-75
−4.5
7
vsMISS
MISSW 79-68
+1.5
14
@MIZ
MIZW 85-68
+19.5
covered 15didn’t cover 9avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-75
−18.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 97-60
+3.5
12
vsFDU
FDUW 93-58
−7.5
15
vsKC
KCW 71-55
−33.5
18
vsRID
RIDW 99-65
+20.5
24
vsASU
ASUL 86-87
+19.5
26
vsNCSU
NCSUW 102-97
+37.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 69-88
+2.5
8
vsSOU
SOUW 95-69
+5.5
12
@CONN
CONNL 63-71
−11.5
16
vsLEM
LEMW 95-53
−4.5
22
vsUMES
UMESW 94-71
+26.5
3
vsMSST
MSSTL 98-101
+41.5
6
@TENN
TENNL 71-85
+2.5
10
@ALA
ALAW 92-88
+2.5
14
vsVAN
VANW 80-64
−19.5
17
vsTA&M
TA&ML 70-74
−22.5
21
@UK
UKL 80-85
+12.5
24
vsUGA
UGAW 87-67
−14.5
28
@AUB
AUBL 82-88
+15.5
31
@OU
OUW 79-69
−7.5
3
vsSC
SCW 84-75
+9.5
7
vsMISS
MISSW 79-68
+1.5
14
@MIZ
MIZW 85-68
+2.5
over 15under 9avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
LSU
14-11 overall · 2-10 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Tennessee63–73
- Lvs Arkansas62–91
- Lvs Georgia71–83
- W@ South Carolina92–87
- Lvs Mississippi St66–80
3 days since their last game.
Texas
15-9 overall · 7-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Missouri85–68
- Wvs Ole Miss79–68
- Wvs South Carolina84–75
- W@ Oklahoma79–69
- L@ Auburn82–88
3 days since their last game.