Food City Center · at Tennessee · Conference game
Closing line
TENN -12.5✓ TENN covered by 5.5
TENN -12.5✓ TENN covered by 5.5Closing total139.5Over by 10.5
 MISS | This season | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| 11-10 | Record | 15-6 |
| 8-13 | ATS | 8-13 |
| 11-10 | O/U | 13-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MISS 66–77 TENN · ✓ TENN (84%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 25 | 41 | 66 |
| TENN | 26 | 58 | 84 |
1st half: MISS 25, TENN 26 (TENN by 1). The model had TENN by 6.6 and a total of 66.6 (actual 51).
Team stats
| MISS | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-52 42% | Field goals | 26-58 45% |
| 9-25 36% | 3-pointers | 9-24 38% |
| 13-21 62% | Free throws | 23-34 68% |
| 23 7 off | Rebounds | 40 17 off |
| 7 | Assists | 17 |
| 6 | Steals | 7 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 27 | Fouls | 18 |
| 16 | Points in paint | 22 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| MISS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patton Pinkins G | 36 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 5-9 | 3-6 |
| Ilias Kamardine G | 28 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 4-8 | 3-6 |
| Malik Dia F | 19 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| James Scott F | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Travis Perry G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| AJ Storr G | 23 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 6-14 | 1-3 |
| Augusto Cassia F | 18 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Eduardo Klafke G | 16 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Koren Johnson G | 11 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Corey Chest F | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kezza Giffa G | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Niko Bundalo F | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Max Smith G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tylis Jordan, Zach Day, Hobert Grayson IV
| TENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Estrella F | 35 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie G | 34 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 5-13 | 5-10 |
| Nate Ament F | 33 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 9-15 | 2-4 |
| Bishop Boswell G | 33 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| DeWayne Brown II F | 22 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Amari Evans G | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Jaylen Carey F | 16 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Troy Henderson G | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Ethan Burg G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Clarence Massamba G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Cade Phillips, Gavin Paull, Campbell Duncan, Amaree Abram, Grant Hurst, Felix Okpara
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTENN -12.5
ModelTENN -11.3
Model edgeMISS +1.2
L TENN covered
Total
Market139.5
Model142.3
Model edgeOver 2.8
W Over
Projected score
MISS 65.5 · TENN 76.8
MISS 66 · TENN 84
Win probability
TENN 84%
1st half
Spread
TENN -6.6
TENN -1.0
Total
66.6
51 points
Projected score
MISS 30 · TENN 36.6
MISS 25 · TENN 26
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTENN -11.5
1 → TENN
CloseTENN -12.5
1 pt toward TENN
Total
Open137.5
▲ 2
Close139.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
MISS +650 · TENN -1000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TENN -11.5 · closed TENN -12.5 · moved 1 toward TENNmodel TENN -11.5
model TENN -11.5
Opened 137.5 · closed 139.5 · moved 2 upmodel 142.5
model 142.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| TENN | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MISS 1–4 TENNTENN leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · MISS 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024-25 | TENN 76 @ MISS 78 | MISS +2.5 | MISS W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | MISS 64 @ TENN 90 | TENN -11.5 | TENN W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | MISS 55 vs TENN 70 | TENN -11.5 | TENN W |
| Dec 28, 2022-23 | TENN 63 @ MISS 59 | MISS +7.5 | MISS W |
| Jan 5, 2021-22 | MISS 60 @ TENN 66 | TENN -17 | MISS W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ole Miss
21 games played
Straight up
11-10
52% wins
Against the spread
8-13
38% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-10
52% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SELA | W 88-58 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 7 | vs ULM | W 86-65 | -37.5 | L −16.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 11 | vs MEM | W 83-77 | -9.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 14 | vs CSUB | W 82-60 | -23.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 18 | vs APSU | W 72-65 | -20.5 | L −13.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs IOWA | L 69-74 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs UTAH | L 74-75 | -10.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIA | L 66-75 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | @ SJU | L 58-63 | +13.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 13 | vs USM | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 17 | vs AAMU | W 80-66 | -20.5 | L −6.5 | 135.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 21 | vs NCSU | L 62-76 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALCN | W 79-43 | -28.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 3 | @ OU | L 70-86 | +6.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 7 | vs ARK | L 87-94 | +3.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 10 | vs MIZ | W 76-69 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 14 | @ UGA | W 97-95 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | O 192 |
| Jan 17 | @ MSST | W 68-67 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 20 | vs AUB | L 66-78 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | @ UK | L 63-72 | +11.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ VAN | L 68-71 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+8.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
−16.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
−3.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
−1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−13.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
−0.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
−11.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−10.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
+8.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−8.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
−6.5
21
vsNCSU
NCSUL 62-76
−6.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 79-43
+7.5
3
@OU
OUL 70-86
−9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 87-94
−3.5
10
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-69
+5.5
14
@UGA
UGAW 97-95
+12.5
17
@MSST
MSSTW 68-67
+4.5
20
vsAUB
AUBL 66-78
−8.5
24
@UK
UKL 63-72
+2.5
31
@VAN
VANL 68-71
+7.5
covered 8didn’t cover 13avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+2.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
+1.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
+7.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
+1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−8.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
+2.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
+4.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
−30.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−0.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
+10.5
21
vsNCSU
NCSUL 62-76
−10.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 79-43
−26.5
3
@OU
OUL 70-86
+9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 87-94
+27.5
10
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-69
+1.5
14
@UGA
UGAW 97-95
+33.5
17
@MSST
MSSTW 68-67
−12.5
20
vsAUB
AUBL 66-78
−7.5
24
@UK
UKL 63-72
−10.5
31
@VAN
VANL 68-71
−10.5
over 11under 10avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Tennessee
21 games played
Straight up
15-6
71% wins
Against the spread
8-13
38% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-8
62% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MER | W 76-61 | -28.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs NKU | W 95-56 | -27.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNF | W 99-66 | -41.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 17 | vs RICE | W 91-66 | -26.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 20 | vs TNST | W 89-60 | -31.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs RUTG | W 85-60 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 25 | vs HOU | W 76-73 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs KU | L 76-81 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 2 | @ SYR | L 60-62 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs ILL | L 62-75 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 16 | vs LOU | W 83-62 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 21 | vs GWEB | W 94-52 | -42.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 30 | vs SCST | W 105-54 | -44.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | @ARK | L 75-86 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 6 | vs TEX | W 85-71 | -12.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 10 | @ FLA | L 67-91 | +4.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 13 | vs TA&M | W 87-82 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 159.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 17 | vsUK | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 24 | @ ALA | W 79-73 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 167.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 28 | @UGA | W 86-85 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 157.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 31 | vsAUB | W 77-69 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−13.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+11.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
−8.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
−1.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−2.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+10.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+5.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
−12.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−9.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−14.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
+16.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−0.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+6.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
−12.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+1.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
−19.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
−6.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
−8.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
+10.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
−0.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
+2.5
covered 8didn’t cover 13avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−6.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+13.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
+9.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
+13.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−8.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+3.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+12.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
+16.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−25.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−12.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
−11.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−6.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+11.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
+2.5
6
vsTEX
TEXW 85-71
+2.5
10
@FLA
FLAL 67-91
+6.5
13
vsTA&M
TA&MW 87-82
+9.5
17
vsUK
UKL 78-80
+12.5
24
@ALA
ALAW 79-73
−15.5
28
@UGA
UGAW 86-85
+13.5
31
vsAUB
AUBW 77-69
−1.5
over 13under 8avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ole Miss
11-10 overall · 3-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Vanderbilt68–71
- L@ Kentucky63–72
- Lvs Auburn66–78
- W@ Mississippi St68–67
- W@ Georgia97–95
3 days since their last game.
Tennessee
15-6 overall · 5-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Auburn77–69
- W@ Georgia86–85
- W@ Alabama79–73
- Lvs Kentucky78–80
- Wvs Texas A&M87–82
3 days since their last game.