When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
15 games · 2025 · Week 7 · pick one to list those games
60% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 0% of games.
All 15 games
2025 · Week 7 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 7 |
SEA -3.5 | 41.5 | 14203946 | Q4 | SEA Q1 Late over |
19–27 |
2025 · Week 7 |
DET -6.5 | 54.5 | 7173033 | U | DET Q1 | 9–24 |
2025 · Week 7 |
ATL -1.5 | 46.5 | 0132330 | U | SF Q1 | 10–20 |
2025 · Week 7 |
DAL -2.5 | 54.5 | 25426366 | Q3 | DAL Q1 | 22–44 |
2025 · Week 7 |
GB -6.5 | 44.5 | 3193350 | Q4 | ARI Q1 Late over Lead lost |
27–23 |
2025 · Week 7 |
DEN -7.5 | 40.5 | 7131965 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Lead lost |
32–33 |
2025 · Week 7 |
LAC -2.5 | 48.5 | 9265562 | Q3 | IND Q1 | 38–24 |
2025 · Week 7 |
CHI -3.5 | 43.5 | 3273740 | U | CHI Q2 | 14–26 |
2025 · Week 7 |
CLE -2.5 | 35.5 | 3233037 | Q4 | CLE Q1 | 6–31 |
2025 · Week 7 |
NE -6.5 | 41.5 | 13304444 | Q3 | NE Q3 | 31–13 |
2025 · Week 7 |
KC -13.5 | 45.5 | 7213131 | U | KC Q2 | 0–31 |
2025 · Week 7 |
PHI -2.5 | 44.5 | 10203750 | Q4 | PHI Q1 | 28–22 |
2025 · Week 7 |
NYJ -1.5 | 39.5 | 3131619 | U | CAR Q1 | 13–6 |
2025 · Week 7 |
LAR -3.5 | 43.5 | 14212142 | U | LAR Q1 | 35–7 |
2025 · Week 7 |
PIT -5.5 | 44.5 | 7273764 | Q4 | CIN Q2 | 31–33 |
HOU
SEA
TB
DET
ATL
SF
WSH
DAL
GB
ARI
NYG
DEN
IND
LAC
NO
CHI
MIA
CLE
NE
TEN
LV
KC
PHI
MIN
CAR
NYJ
LAR
JAX
PIT
CINWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 73% 11
Q2 20% 3
Q3 7% 1
Q4 0% 0
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 87% and covered 100% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 87% and covered 100% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 20% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.