When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2025 · Week 3 · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 8 overs, 13% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.
All 16 games
2025 · Week 3 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 3 |
BAL -4.5 | 53.5 | 14284268 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 38–30 |
2025 · Week 3 |
KC -5.5 | 44.5 | 3152231 | U | KC Q3 | 22–9 |
2025 · Week 3 |
DAL -1.5 | 50.5 | 17384545 | U | CHI Q1 | 14–31 |
2025 · Week 3 |
SF -1.5 | 43.5 | 091231 | U | ARI Q3 | 15–16 |
2025 · Week 3 |
LAC -2.5 | 45.5 | 3173043 | U | LAC Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–23 |
2025 · Week 3 |
SEA -6.5 | 41.5 | 21445057 | Q2 | SEA Q1 | 13–44 |
2025 · Week 3 |
GB -7.5 | 40.5 | 031023 | U | CLE Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
10–13 |
2025 · Week 3 |
IND -5.5 | 42.5 | 20264761 | Q3 | IND Q1 | 41–20 |
2025 · Week 3 |
MIN -3.5 | 42.5 | 14375158 | Q3 | MIN Q1 | 10–48 |
2025 · Week 3 |
PIT -1.5 | 44.5 | 7212135 | U | PIT Q1 Late cover flip |
21–14 |
2025 · Week 3 |
PHI -3.5 | 45.5 | 17264759 | Q3 | PHI Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
26–33 |
2025 · Week 3 |
TB -6.5 | 42.5 | 6262956 | Q4 | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
27–29 |
2025 · Week 3 |
WSH -2.5 | 44.5 | 10304465 | Q4 | WSH Q1 | 24–41 |
2025 · Week 3 |
ATL -4.5 | 43.5 | 7102030 | U | CAR Q1 | 0–30 |
2025 · Week 3 |
JAX -1.5 | 42.5 | 7101327 | U | JAX Q1 Late cover flip |
10–17 |
2025 · Week 3 |
BUF -11.5 | 50.5 | 14283552 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
21–31 |
DET
BAL
KC
NYG
DAL
CHI
ARI
SF
DEN
LAC
NO
SEA
GB
CLE
IND
TEN
CIN
MIN
PIT
NE
LAR
PHI
NYJ
TB
LV
WSH
ATL
CAR
HOU
JAX
MIA
BUFWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 63% 10
Q2 0% 0
Q3 13% 2
Q4 25% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 86% and covered 71% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 79% and covered 64% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 6 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.