When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2025 · Week 18 · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 8 overs, 13% had cashed by halftime and 13% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.
All 16 games
2025 · Week 18 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
BAL -4.5 | 41.5 | 7132350 | Q4 | PIT Q3 Late over Lead lost |
24–26 |
2025 · Week 18 |
BUF -13.5 | 39.5 | 7212943 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 8–35 |
2025 · Week 18 |
CHI -3 | 51.5 | 3131635 | U | DET Q1 | 19–16 |
2025 · Week 18 |
DEN -15.5 | 37.5 | 10131622 | U | DEN Q4 Late cover flip |
3–19 |
2025 · Week 18 |
KC -3.5 | 35.5 | 391226 | U | LV Q1 | 12–14 |
2025 · Week 18 |
LAR -14.5 | 49.5 | 6224357 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip |
20–37 |
2025 · Week 18 |
NE -14.5 | 43.5 | 14274148 | Q4 | NE Q3 | 10–38 |
2025 · Week 18 |
PHI -3 | 38.5 | 0172741 | Q4 | WSH Q4 Late over |
24–17 |
2025 · Week 18 |
ATL -3.5 | 43.5 | 7172336 | U | NO Q2 Late cover flip |
17–19 |
2025 · Week 18 |
CIN -8.5 | 47.5 | 13262938 | U | CLE Q1 | 20–18 |
2025 · Week 18 |
MIN -13.5 | 37.5 | 3131319 | U | GB Q1 | 3–16 |
2025 · Week 18 |
DAL -3 | 50.5 | 16263451 | Q4 | NYG Q2 | 17–34 |
2025 · Week 18 |
JAX -13.5 | 46.5 | 14384148 | Q4 | JAX Q2 | 7–41 |
2025 · Week 18 |
HOU -9.5 | 37.5 | 16405368 | Q2 | IND Q1 | 30–38 |
2025 · Week 18 |
SEA -2.5 | 48.5 | 7131316 | U | SEA Q1 | 13–3 |
2025 · Week 18 |
TB -3 | 42.5 | 10202030 | U | CAR Q4 Late cover flip |
14–16 |
BAL
PIT
NYJ
BUF
DET
CHI
LAC
DEN
KC
LV
ARI
LAR
MIA
NE
WSH
PHI
NO
ATL
CLE
CIN
GB
MIN
DAL
NYG
TEN
JAX
IND
HOU
SEA
SF
CAR
TBWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 38% 6
Q2 25% 4
Q3 13% 2
Q4 25% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 94% and covered 69% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 87% and covered 73% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 22+ | 6 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.