When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
15 games · 2025 · Week 11 · pick one to list those games
40% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.
All 15 games
2025 · Week 11 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 11 |
DAL -3.5 | 48.5 | 9334049 | Q4 | DAL Q2 | 33–16 |
2025 · Week 11 |
PHI -2.5 | 45.5 | 3191925 | U | PHI Q1 | 9–16 |
2025 · Week 11 |
BAL -7.5 | 37.5 | 6262639 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
23–16 |
2025 · Week 11 |
KC -4.5 | 45.5 | 9122641 | U | DEN Q1 Lead lost |
19–22 |
2025 · Week 11 |
LAR -3.5 | 49.5 | 17232640 | U | SEA Q3 Late cover flip |
19–21 |
2025 · Week 11 |
SF -3.5 | 48.5 | 20354563 | Q4 | SF Q1 | 41–22 |
2025 · Week 11 |
ATL -4.5 | 41.5 | 1431405457 | Q4 | CAR Q3 Late over Lead lost |
30–27 |
2025 · Week 11 |
BUF -6.5 | 44.5 | 10415776 | Q3 | BUF Q4 Late cover flip |
32–44 |
2025 · Week 11 |
HOU -5.5 | 37.5 | 331629 | U | TEN Q1 Late cover flip |
16–13 |
2025 · Week 11 |
MIN -3 | 47.5 | 3131936 | U | CHI Q2 | 19–17 |
2025 · Week 11 |
GB -7.5 | 42.5 | 7263247 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Late over Lead lost |
27–20 |
2025 · Week 11 |
PIT -5.5 | 47.5 | 13162946 | U | PIT Q3 | 12–34 |
2025 · Week 11 |
LAC -2.5 | 42.5 | 10202741 | U | JAX Q1 | 6–35 |
2025 · Week 11 |
MIA -2.5 | 46.5 | 612192629 | U | MIA OT Late cover flip |
13–16 |
2025 · Week 11 |
NE -12.5 | 42.5 | 7213541 | U | NE Q4 | 14–27 |
DAL
LV
DET
PHI
BAL
CLE
KC
DEN
SEA
LAR
SF
ARI
CAR
ATL
TB
BUF
HOU
TEN
CHI
MIN
GB
NYG
CIN
PIT
LAC
JAX
WSH
MIA
NYJ
NEWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 7
Q2 13% 2
Q3 20% 3
Q4 13% 2
OT 7% 1
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 83% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 79% and covered 64% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.