When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2025 · Dallas Cowboys · pick one to list those games
75% went over. Of the 12 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 8% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 13% of games.
All 16 games
2025 · Dallas Cowboys · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 18 |
DAL -3 | 50.5 | 16263451 | Q4 | NYG Q2 | 17–34 |
2025 · Week 17 |
DAL -8.5 | 50.5 | 10344753 | Q4 | WSH Q3 Late over |
30–23 |
2025 · Week 16 |
DAL -1.5 | 50.5 | 14384151 | Q4 | LAC Q1 Late over |
34–17 |
2025 · Week 15 |
DAL -5.5 | 47.5 | 14344760 | Q4 | MIN Q1 | 34–26 |
2025 · Week 14 |
DET -3.5 | 55.5 | 13294674 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 30–44 |
2025 · Week 12 |
PHI -2.5 | 48.5 | 14283545 | U | DAL Q4 | 21–24 |
2025 · Week 11 |
DAL -3.5 | 48.5 | 9334049 | Q4 | DAL Q2 | 33–16 |
2025 · Week 9 |
DAL -3.5 | 53.5 | 3243744 | U | ARI Q1 | 27–17 |
2025 · Week 8 |
DEN -4.5 | 51.5 | 17374768 | Q4 | DEN Q1 | 24–44 |
2025 · Week 7 |
DAL -2.5 | 54.5 | 25426366 | Q3 | DAL Q1 | 22–44 |
2025 · Week 6 |
DAL -2.5 | 45.5 | 6304457 | Q4 | CAR Q4 | 27–30 |
2025 · Week 5 |
NYJ -2.5 | 47.5 | 6263659 | Q4 | DAL Q1 Late over |
37–22 |
2025 · Week 4 |
GB -6.5 | 46.5 | 729437480 | Q4 | DAL Q2 Lead lost |
40–40 |
2025 · Week 3 |
DAL -1.5 | 50.5 | 17384545 | U | CHI Q1 | 14–31 |
2025 · Week 2 |
DAL -4.5 | 44.5 | 623337477 | Q4 | NYG Q1 | 37–40 |
2025 · Week 1 |
PHI -7.5 | 47.5 | 14414444 | U | DAL Q1 | 20–24 |
DAL
NYG
WSH
LAC
MIN
DET
PHI
LV
ARI
DEN
CAR
NYJ
GB
CHIWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 63% 10
Q2 19% 3
Q3 6% 1
Q4 13% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 73% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 81% and covered 69% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 5 | 60% 3 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 50% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.