When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
15 games · 2024 · Week 9 · pick one to list those games
47% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 14% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.
All 15 games
2024 · Week 9 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 9 |
KC -8.5 | 45.5 | 317274854 | Q4 | TB Q1 Late over |
24–30 |
2024 · Week 9 |
MIN -5.5 | 46.5 | 072134 | U | MIN Q3 Late cover flip |
13–21 |
2024 · Week 9 |
DET -2.5 | 48.5 | 3203038 | U | DET Q2 | 24–14 |
2024 · Week 9 |
LAR -2 | 48.5 | 016264046 | U | LAR OT | 26–20 |
2024 · Week 9 |
PHI -7.5 | 46.5 | 7163851 | Q4 | JAX Q3 Late cover flip Late over |
23–28 |
2024 · Week 9 |
ARI -1.5 | 44.5 | 7303338 | U | ARI Q1 | 9–29 |
2024 · Week 9 |
ATL -3.5 | 51.5 | 10243448 | U | ATL Q1 | 21–27 |
2024 · Week 9 |
BUF -6.5 | 49.5 | 6163357 | Q4 | MIA Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
27–30 |
2024 · Week 9 |
CIN -7.5 | 44.5 | 14274165 | Q4 | CIN Q3 | 24–41 |
2024 · Week 9 |
LAC -1.5 | 41.5 | 7232337 | U | LAC Q1 | 27–10 |
2024 · Week 9 |
TEN -3.5 | 38.5 | 710203437 | U | NE Q3 | 17–20 |
2024 · Week 9 |
WSH -3.5 | 42.5 | 7283449 | Q4 | WSH Q1 Late over |
27–22 |
2024 · Week 9 |
NO -7.5 | 43.5 | 6233345 | Q4 | CAR Q1 Late over Lead lost |
22–23 |
2024 · Week 9 |
BAL -8.5 | 46.5 | 7344851 | Q3 | BAL Q2 | 10–41 |
2024 · Week 9 |
NYJ -2.5 | 43.5 | 071734 | U | NYJ Q4 | 13–21 |
TB
KC
IND
MIN
DET
GB
LAR
SEA
JAX
PHI
CHI
ARI
DAL
ATL
MIA
BUF
LV
CIN
LAC
CLE
NE
TEN
WSH
NYG
NO
CAR
DEN
BAL
HOU
NYJWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 40% 6
Q2 13% 2
Q3 27% 4
Q4 13% 2
OT 7% 1
The team leading at halftime won 67% and covered 53% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 85% and covered 77% of 13 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 5 | 20% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.