When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
15 games · 2024 · Week 7 · pick one to list those games
40% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 15 games
2024 · Week 7 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 7 |
LAC -1.5 | 44.5 | 0131632 | U | ARI Q4 | 15–17 |
2024 · Week 7 |
BAL -4.5 | 50.5 | 10274472 | Q4 | BAL Q2 | 41–31 |
2024 · Week 7 |
NYJ -2.5 | 40.5 | 10283852 | Q4 | PIT Q2 | 15–37 |
2024 · Week 7 |
SF -2.5 | 47.5 | 3202646 | U | KC Q2 | 28–18 |
2024 · Week 7 |
LAR -7.5 | 43.5 | 0202935 | U | LV Q4 Late cover flip |
15–20 |
2024 · Week 7 |
WSH -10.5 | 50.5 | 10273747 | U | WSH Q2 | 7–40 |
2024 · Week 7 |
ATL -2.5 | 51.5 | 3243848 | U | SEA Q1 | 34–14 |
2024 · Week 7 |
BUF -9.5 | 41.5 | 3172744 | Q4 | BUF Q4 Late over |
10–34 |
2024 · Week 7 |
CIN -5.5 | 42.5 | 7132735 | U | CIN Q3 | 21–14 |
2024 · Week 7 |
GB -3.5 | 47.5 | 3334046 | U | HOU Q1 | 22–24 |
2024 · Week 7 |
IND -3.5 | 43.5 | 7132026 | U | IND Q4 Late cover flip |
10–16 |
2024 · Week 7 |
MIN -1.5 | 50.5 | 10314560 | Q4 | DET Q2 Lead lost |
31–29 |
2024 · Week 7 |
PHI -3.5 | 42.5 | 0172431 | U | PHI Q2 | 28–3 |
2024 · Week 7 |
JAX -6.5 | 41.5 | 7323548 | Q4 | JAX Q2 Late over |
16–32 |
2024 · Week 7 |
DEN -2.5 | 37.5 | 3192943 | Q4 | DEN Q1 Late over |
33–10 |
LAC
ARI
BAL
TB
NYJ
PIT
KC
SF
LV
LAR
CAR
WSH
SEA
ATL
TEN
BUF
CIN
CLE
HOU
GB
MIA
IND
DET
MIN
PHI
NYG
NE
JAX
DEN
NOWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 20% 3
Q2 47% 7
Q3 7% 1
Q4 27% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 73% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 93% and covered 79% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.