When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
15 games · 2024 · Week 2 · pick one to list those games
33% went over. Of the 5 overs, 20% had cashed by halftime and 20% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 13% of games.
All 15 games
2024 · Week 2 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 2 |
PHI -5.5 | 46.5 | 0132543 | U | ATL Q1 Lead lost |
22–21 |
2024 · Week 2 |
HOU -6.5 | 45.5 | 6262632 | U | CHI Q1 Late cover flip |
13–19 |
2024 · Week 2 |
KC -6.5 | 47.5 | 6263951 | Q4 | CIN Q1 Lead lost |
25–26 |
2024 · Week 2 |
ARI -1.5 | 47.5 | 14274451 | Q4 | ARI Q1 | 10–41 |
2024 · Week 2 |
DAL -6.5 | 47.5 | 17516063 | Q2 | NO Q1 | 44–19 |
2024 · Week 2 |
DET -7.5 | 51.5 | 9193636 | U | TB Q1 | 20–16 |
2024 · Week 2 |
IND -2.5 | 41.5 | 10101626 | U | GB Q1 | 10–16 |
2024 · Week 2 |
NYJ -3.5 | 42.5 | 7173441 | U | NYJ Q4 Late cover flip |
24–17 |
2024 · Week 2 |
SF -3.5 | 46.5 | 3202740 | U | MIN Q1 | 17–23 |
2024 · Week 2 |
SEA -3.5 | 39.5 | 1430304043 | Q4 | NE Q4 Late over Lead lost |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 2 |
WSH -1.5 | 42.5 | 9212739 | U | WSH Q3 Late cover flip |
18–21 |
2024 · Week 2 |
LAC -4.5 | 38.5 | 6202629 | U | LAC Q1 | 26–3 |
2024 · Week 2 |
JAX -3.5 | 41.5 | 7162631 | U | CLE Q1 | 18–13 |
2024 · Week 2 |
BAL -8.5 | 42.5 | 3152949 | Q4 | LV Q1 Late over Lead lost |
26–23 |
2024 · Week 2 |
MIA -2.5 | 49.5 | 14344141 | U | BUF Q1 | 31–10 |
ATL
PHI
CHI
HOU
CIN
KC
LAR
ARI
NO
DAL
TB
DET
IND
GB
NYJ
TEN
SF
MIN
SEA
NE
NYG
WSH
LAC
CAR
CLE
JAX
LV
BAL
BUF
MIAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 80% 12
Q2 0% 0
Q3 7% 1
Q4 13% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 67% and covered 60% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 86% and covered 79% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 4 | 50% 2 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.