When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2024 · Week 16 · pick one to list those games
63% went over. Of the 10 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 30% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 31% of games.
All 16 games
2024 · Week 16 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 16 |
GB -14.5 | 43.5 | 7212434 | U | GB Q2 | 0–34 |
2024 · Week 16 |
TB -4.5 | 47.5 | 10374350 | Q4 | DAL Q1 Late over |
24–26 |
2024 · Week 16 |
BUF -14.5 | 47.5 | 7213145 | U | NE Q1 | 21–24 |
2024 · Week 16 |
LV -2.5 | 41.5 | 7202733 | U | LV Q4 | 14–19 |
2024 · Week 16 |
SF -1.5 | 44.5 | 3232946 | Q4 | MIA Q1 Late over |
17–29 |
2024 · Week 16 |
MIN -2.5 | 43.5 | 7313751 | Q4 | MIN Q1 Late over |
27–24 |
2024 · Week 16 |
ATL -9.5 | 43.5 | 0243841 | U | ATL Q2 | 7–34 |
2024 · Week 16 |
DET -6.5 | 47.5 | 13415151 | Q3 | DET Q1 | 34–17 |
2024 · Week 16 |
CIN -10.5 | 46.5 | 7172330 | U | CIN Q2 | 6–24 |
2024 · Week 16 |
IND -4.5 | 43.5 | 7315368 | Q3 | IND Q2 | 30–38 |
2024 · Week 16 |
LAR -2.5 | 46.5 | 6151528 | U | LAR Q4 | 19–9 |
2024 · Week 16 |
PHI -4.5 | 47.5 | 28354169 | Q4 | WSH Q4 | 33–36 |
2024 · Week 16 |
ARI -5.5 | 47.5 | 737436066 | Q4 | CAR Q1 | 30–36 |
2024 · Week 16 |
BAL -7.5 | 45.5 | 7274151 | Q4 | BAL Q4 | 17–34 |
2024 · Week 16 |
KC -3.5 | 42.5 | 10274046 | Q4 | KC Q1 | 19–27 |
2024 · Week 16 |
LAC -2.5 | 41.5 | 14344361 | Q3 | LAC Q4 | 27–34 |
NO
GB
TB
DAL
NE
BUF
JAX
LV
SF
MIA
MIN
SEA
NYG
ATL
DET
CHI
CLE
CIN
TEN
IND
LAR
NYJ
PHI
WSH
ARI
CAR
PIT
BAL
HOU
KC
DEN
LACWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 44% 7
Q2 25% 4
Q3 0% 0
Q4 31% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 81% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 69% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 6 | 83% 5 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.