When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
16 games · 2024 · Week 13 · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 8 overs, 13% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 31% of games.
All 16 games
2024 · Week 13 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 13 |
DEN -6.5 | 41.5 | 14385673 | Q3 | DEN Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
32–41 |
2024 · Week 13 |
BUF -6.5 | 44.5 | 10243845 | Q4 | BUF Q2 | 10–35 |
2024 · Week 13 |
BAL -3.5 | 51.5 | 9262643 | U | PHI Q2 | 24–19 |
2024 · Week 13 |
LAR -2.5 | 48.5 | 361335 | U | LAR Q4 | 21–14 |
2024 · Week 13 |
TB -6.5 | 46.5 | 1023264649 | OT | CAR Q1 Late over |
26–23 |
2024 · Week 13 |
LAC -0.5 | 47.5 | 10163030 | U | LAC Q2 | 17–13 |
2024 · Week 13 |
CIN -3.5 | 46.5 | 21485882 | Q2 | PIT Q2 | 44–38 |
2024 · Week 13 |
MIN -3.5 | 45.5 | 6153245 | U | ARI Q1 Lead lost |
22–23 |
2024 · Week 13 |
IND -2.5 | 41.5 | 13303349 | Q4 | NE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
25–24 |
2024 · Week 13 |
NYJ -1.5 | 41.5 | 14373747 | Q4 | SEA Q4 | 26–21 |
2024 · Week 13 |
WSH -5.5 | 45.5 | 21354161 | Q4 | WSH Q1 | 19–42 |
2024 · Week 13 |
HOU -3.5 | 44.5 | 092243 | U | JAX Q4 Late cover flip |
23–20 |
2024 · Week 13 |
KC -13.5 | 41.5 | 3132636 | U | LV Q1 | 17–19 |
2024 · Week 13 |
GB -3.5 | 47.5 | 14273847 | U | GB Q1 | 17–30 |
2024 · Week 13 |
DAL -4.5 | 39.5 | 10233747 | Q4 | DAL Q3 | 20–27 |
2024 · Week 13 |
DET -10 | 48.5 | 3163043 | U | CHI Q4 | 20–23 |
CLE
DEN
SF
BUF
PHI
BAL
LAR
NO
TB
CAR
LAC
ATL
PIT
CIN
ARI
MIN
IND
NE
SEA
NYJ
TEN
WSH
HOU
JAX
LV
KC
MIA
GB
NYG
DAL
CHI
DETWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 38% 6
Q2 25% 4
Q3 6% 1
Q4 31% 5
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 69% and covered 69% of 16 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 81% and covered 69% of 16 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.