When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
15 games · 2023 · Week 6 · pick one to list those games
20% went over. Of the 3 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 15 games
2023 · Week 6 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 6 |
DAL -1.5 | 49.5 | 14172037 | U | DAL Q4 Late cover flip |
20–17 |
2023 · Week 6 |
BUF -15.5 | 42.5 | 36623 | U | NYG Q1 Lead lost |
9–14 |
2023 · Week 6 |
LAR -7.5 | 47.5 | 6152535 | U | LAR Q4 | 9–26 |
2023 · Week 6 |
PHI -5.5 | 41.5 | 7232634 | U | NYJ Q2 Lead lost |
14–20 |
2023 · Week 6 |
DET -3.5 | 42.5 | 3132326 | U | DET Q2 | 20–6 |
2023 · Week 6 |
LV -3.5 | 40.5 | 3162638 | U | LV Q2 | 17–21 |
2023 · Week 6 |
ATL -2.5 | 41.5 | 10273440 | U | WSH Q2 | 24–16 |
2023 · Week 6 |
MIN -3.5 | 43.5 | 3182532 | U | MIN Q2 | 19–13 |
2023 · Week 6 |
CIN -1.5 | 45.5 | 14242730 | U | CIN Q4 | 13–17 |
2023 · Week 6 |
SF -9.5 | 35.5 | 7172336 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
17–19 |
2023 · Week 6 |
MIA -13.5 | 46.5 | 14354263 | Q4 | MIA Q3 | 21–42 |
2023 · Week 6 |
JAX -3.5 | 43.5 | 3273757 | Q4 | JAX Q2 | 20–37 |
2023 · Week 6 |
NO -2.5 | 41.5 | 14273333 | U | HOU Q1 | 13–20 |
2023 · Week 6 |
BAL -5.5 | 41.5 | 9213140 | U | BAL Q4 | 24–16 |
2023 · Week 6 |
KC -9.5 | 48.5 | 3131627 | U | KC Q2 Late cover flip |
8–19 |
DAL
LAC
NYG
BUF
ARI
LAR
PHI
NYJ
DET
TB
NE
LV
WSH
ATL
MIN
CHI
SEA
CIN
SF
CLE
CAR
MIA
IND
JAX
NO
HOU
BAL
TEN
DEN
KCWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 20% 3
Q2 47% 7
Q3 7% 1
Q4 27% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 80% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 86% and covered 93% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.