When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
15 games · 2023 · Washington Commanders · pick one to list those games
60% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.
All 15 games
2023 · Washington Commanders · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
DAL -13 | 47 | 7314548 | Q4 | DAL Q3 Late over |
38–10 |
2023 · Week 17 |
SF -14 | 48.5 | 10233037 | U | SF Q4 | 27–10 |
2023 · Week 16 |
NYJ -3 | 36 | 17344158 | Q3 | WSH Q4 Late cover flip |
28–30 |
2023 · Week 15 |
LAR -6.5 | 48.5 | 3132748 | U | LAR Q2 | 20–28 |
2023 · Week 13 |
MIA -8.5 | 49.5 | 17385360 | Q3 | MIA Q1 | 45–15 |
2023 · Week 12 |
DAL -13 | 48 | 7303055 | Q4 | DAL Q4 Late over |
10–45 |
2023 · Week 11 |
WSH -7.5 | 39 | 10232650 | Q4 | NYG Q1 Late over |
31–19 |
2023 · Week 10 |
SEA -6 | 44 | 9182855 | Q4 | WSH Q1 Late over |
26–29 |
2023 · Week 9 |
NE -2.5 | 40 | 3243737 | U | WSH Q3 | 20–17 |
2023 · Week 8 |
PHI -7 | 42.5 | 10273469 | Q4 | Push | 38–31 |
2023 · Week 7 |
WSH -3.5 | 36.5 | 0142121 | U | NYG Q1 | 7–14 |
2023 · Week 6 |
ATL -2.5 | 41.5 | 10273440 | U | WSH Q2 | 24–16 |
2023 · Week 5 |
WSH -6 | 45 | 10304160 | Q4 | CHI Q1 | 40–20 |
2023 · Week 4 |
PHI -8.5 | 44.5 | 1427386265 | Q4 | WSH Q1 | 31–34 |
2023 · Week 1 |
WSH -6 | 40 | 10232636 | U | ARI Q1 | 16–20 |
DAL
WSH
SF
NYJ
LAR
MIA
NYG
SEA
NE
PHI
ATL
CHI
ARIWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 47% 7
Q2 13% 2
Q3 13% 2
Q4 20% 3
OT 0% 0
Push 7% 1
The team leading at halftime won 71% and covered 79% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 93% and covered 79% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.