When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
15 games · 2023 · San Francisco 49ers · pick one to list those games
57% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 13% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.
All 15 games
2023 · San Francisco 49ers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
SF -2 | 47 | 013233847 | P | KC Q3 | 22–25 |
2023 · Postseason |
SF -7.5 | 53.5 | 14314865 | Q4 | DET Q1 Late over |
31–34 |
2023 · Postseason |
SF -10.5 | 50.5 | 3133545 | U | GB Q1 Lead lost |
21–24 |
2023 · Week 18 |
SF -5.5 | 40 | 14273341 | Q4 | LAR Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
21–20 |
2023 · Week 17 |
SF -14 | 48.5 | 10233037 | U | SF Q4 | 27–10 |
2023 · Week 16 |
SF -6.5 | 47 | 8284552 | Q4 | BAL Q1 | 33–19 |
2023 · Week 15 |
SF -12 | 48 | 21345174 | Q3 | SF Q3 | 45–29 |
2023 · Week 14 |
SF -14 | 45.5 | 17243744 | U | SEA Q1 | 16–28 |
2023 · Week 13 |
SF -3 | 46.5 | 6204161 | Q4 | SF Q2 | 42–19 |
2023 · Week 12 |
SF -7 | 43 | 10273744 | Q4 | SF Q2 | 31–13 |
2023 · Week 11 |
SF -13.5 | 42 | 7203441 | U | TB Q4 | 14–27 |
2023 · Week 10 |
SF -3 | 44.5 | 10163037 | U | SF Q1 | 34–3 |
2023 · Week 8 |
SF -4.5 | 44 | 21242748 | Q4 | CIN Q1 Late over |
31–17 |
2023 · Week 7 |
SF -6.5 | 44.5 | 7233639 | U | MIN Q1 | 17–22 |
2023 · Week 6 |
SF -9.5 | 35.5 | 7172336 | Q4 | CLE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
17–19 |
SF
KC
DET
GB
LAR
WSH
BAL
ARI
SEA
PHI
TB
JAX
CIN
MIN
CLEWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 53% 8
Q2 13% 2
Q3 13% 2
Q4 20% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 60% of 15 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 86% and covered 79% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 4 | 25% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.