When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
15 games · 2023 · Green Bay Packers · pick one to list those games
53% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 38% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 15 games
2023 · Green Bay Packers · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
SF -10.5 | 50.5 | 3133545 | U | GB Q1 Lead lost |
21–24 |
2023 · Postseason |
DAL -7 | 52 | 7345780 | Q3 | GB Q1 | 48–32 |
2023 · Week 18 |
GB -2.5 | 46 | 3132026 | U | GB Q3 | 9–17 |
2023 · Week 17 |
GB -1 | 42.5 | 10263343 | Q4 | GB Q1 | 33–10 |
2023 · Week 16 |
GB -3.5 | 39.5 | 10333963 | Q4 | CAR Q4 Late cover flip |
33–30 |
2023 · Week 15 |
GB -4 | 41 | 10234454 | Q3 | TB Q2 | 34–20 |
2023 · Week 14 |
GB -5.5 | 37 | 7173446 | Q4 | NYG Q2 Late over |
22–24 |
2023 · Week 13 |
KC -6 | 44 | 10203346 | Q4 | GB Q1 Late over |
19–27 |
2023 · Week 12 |
DET -8.5 | 47 | 26294351 | Q4 | GB Q1 Late over |
29–22 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LAC -3 | 44 | 3202943 | U | GB Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
20–23 |
2023 · Week 10 |
PIT -3 | 38 | 14303942 | Q3 | PIT Q4 | 19–23 |
2023 · Week 9 |
GB -3 | 39.5 | 0101323 | U | GB Q2 | 3–20 |
2023 · Week 8 |
MIN PK | 41.5 | 7133434 | U | MIN Q1 | 24–10 |
2023 · Week 7 |
DEN -2.5 | 43.5 | 392636 | U | GB Q4 Lead lost |
17–19 |
2023 · Week 5 |
LV -1 | 43.5 | 3132330 | U | LV Q4 | 13–17 |
GB
SF
DAL
CHI
MIN
CAR
TB
NYG
KC
DET
LAC
PIT
LAR
DEN
LVWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 40% 6
Q2 27% 4
Q3 7% 1
Q4 27% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 93% and covered 71% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 87% and covered 80% of 15 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.