When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
874 games · 2023–2026 · pick one to list those games
52% went over. Of the 450 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 21% of games.
Went over by halftime: 15 games
2023–2026 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 1 |
CHI -3 | 47.5 | 21557696 | Q2 | CHI Q1 | 59–37 |
2026 · Week 1 |
BUF -1.5 | 44.5 | 10454867 | Q2 | BUF Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
36–31 |
2025 · Week 18 |
HOU -9.5 | 37.5 | 16405368 | Q2 | IND Q1 | 30–38 |
2025 · Week 17 |
GB -2.5 | 37.5 | 14415165 | Q2 | BAL Q1 | 41–24 |
2025 · Week 15 |
JAX -13.5 | 40.5 | 21415468 | Q2 | JAX Q2 | 20–48 |
2025 · Week 10 |
SEA -7.5 | 44.5 | 21455366 | Q2 | SEA Q1 | 22–44 |
2025 · Week 3 |
SEA -6.5 | 41.5 | 21445057 | Q2 | SEA Q1 | 13–44 |
2024 · Week 13 |
CIN -3.5 | 46.5 | 21485882 | Q2 | PIT Q2 | 44–38 |
2024 · Week 8 |
DET -12.5 | 46.5 | 21496666 | Q2 | DET Q2 | 14–52 |
2024 · Week 6 |
TB -3.5 | 42.5 | 17515878 | Q2 | TB Q3 | 51–27 |
2024 · Week 2 |
DAL -6.5 | 47.5 | 17516063 | Q2 | NO Q1 | 44–19 |
2023 · Week 17 |
CLE -7 | 33.5 | 27515157 | Q2 | CLE Q1 | 20–37 |
2023 · Week 15 |
LV -3 | 36 | 21426384 | Q2 | LV Q1 | 21–63 |
2023 · Week 14 |
PIT -5.5 | 30.5 | 10313139 | Q2 | NE Q1 | 21–18 |
2023 · Week 7 |
CLE -3.5 | 40.5 | 21485877 | Q2 | IND Q3 Lead lost |
39–38 |
CHI
CAR
BUF
HOU
IND
BAL
GB
NYJ
JAX
ARI
SEA
NO
PIT
CIN
TEN
DET
TB
DAL
CLE
LAC
LV
NEWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 431
Q2 17% 152
Q3 11% 97
Q4 19% 168
OT 2% 15
Push 1% 11
The team leading at halftime won 77% and covered 71% of 816 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 76% of 833 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 111 | 100% 111 |
| 1–3 | 44 | 95% 42 |
| 4–7 | 102 | 87% 89 |
| 8–10 | 101 | 64% 65 |
| 11–14 | 117 | 60% 70 |
| 15–17 | 108 | 33% 36 |
| 18–21 | 121 | 19% 23 |
| 22+ | 170 | 8% 14 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.