When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
15 games · 2024 · Penn State · pick one to list those games
47% went over. Of the 7 overs, 14% had cashed by halftime and 14% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 20% of games.
All 15 games
2024 · Penn State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
PSU -1.5 | 45.5 | 0132051 | Q4 | ND Q3 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
27–24 |
2024 · Postseason |
PSU -11.5 | 54.5 | 14243845 | U | PSU Q4 Late cover flip |
31–14 |
2024 · Postseason |
PSU -7.5 | 50.5 | 7283448 | U | PSU Q2 | 10–38 |
2024 · Week 15 |
ORE -3.5 | 51.5 | 24556282 | Q2 | ORE Q1 | 37–45 |
2024 · Week 14 |
PSU -26.5 | 50.5 | 10383851 | Q4 | PSU Q4 Late over |
7–44 |
2024 · Week 13 |
PSU -11.5 | 45.5 | 7354551 | Q4 | MINN Q1 | 26–25 |
2024 · Week 12 |
PSU -30.5 | 51.5 | 14244559 | Q4 | PSU Q3 | 49–10 |
2024 · Week 11 |
PSU -13.5 | 48.5 | 7283141 | U | PSU Q2 | 6–35 |
2024 · Week 10 |
OSU -3.5 | 47.5 | 17243033 | U | OSU Q2 | 20–13 |
2024 · Week 9 |
PSU -6.5 | 45.5 | 3172741 | U | PSU Q4 | 28–13 |
2024 · Week 7 |
PSU -3.5 | 51.5 | 1026436063 | Q4 | USC Q1 Lead lost |
33–30 |
2024 · Week 6 |
PSU -29.5 | 47.5 | 0172738 | U | UCLA Q1 | 11–27 |
2024 · Week 5 |
PSU -19.5 | 48.5 | 14142128 | U | ILL Q1 | 7–21 |
2024 · Week 2 |
PSU -35.5 | 51.5 | 17445161 | Q4 | BGSU Q1 Late over |
27–34 |
2024 · Week 1 |
PSU -7.5 | 48.5 | 0263346 | U | PSU Q2 | 34–12 |
ND
PSU
BOIS
SMU
ORE
MD
MINN
PUR
WASH
OSU
WIS
USC
UCLA
ILL
BGSU
WVUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 40% 6
Q2 27% 4
Q3 13% 2
Q4 20% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 64% and covered 79% of 14 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 93% and covered 71% of 14 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 4 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 50% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.