When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
3,143 games · 2023–2026 · pick one to list those games
51% went over. Of the 1,606 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
Went over in overtime, leader lost the game in the last 5 minutes: 15 games
2023–2026 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 2 |
OHIO -1.5 | 48.5 | 731384856 | OT | OHIO OT Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
27–29 |
2025 · Postseason |
USC -4.5 | 56.5 | 327354857 | OT | TCU Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
27–30 |
2025 · Week 8 |
TXST -2.5 | 65.5 | 1430335477 | OT | MRSH Q3 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
37–40 |
2025 · Week 6 |
BUFF -9.5 | 53.5 | 1428424861 | OT | EMU Q1 Late over Lead lost |
30–31 |
2025 · Week 5 |
GT -11.5 | 53.5 | 320374659 | OT | WAKE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
30–29 |
2025 · Week 5 |
HOU -11.5 | 48.5 | 724274851 | OT | ORST Q1 Late over Lead lost |
27–24 |
2025 · Week 3 |
PITT -6.5 | 54.5 | 010284855 | OT | WVU Q1 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
24–31 |
2025 · Week 2 |
UNT -12.5 | 56.5 | 024415463 | OT | WMU Q1 Late over Lead lost |
33–30 |
2024 · Postseason |
USF -0.5 | 64.5 | 731415480 | OT | USF OT Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
41–39 |
2024 · Week 2 |
NU -2.5 | 37.5 | 1017202646 | OT | DUKE Q3 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
26–20 |
2023 · Postseason |
MICH -2 | 46 | 1423234047 | OT | MICH OT Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
20–27 |
2023 · Week 13 |
OKST -16.5 | 55.5 | 1330375474 | OT | BYU Q1 Late over Lead lost |
34–40 |
2023 · Week 12 |
EMU -3 | 39.5 | 028283457 | OT | Push Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
27–30 |
2023 · Week 8 |
CLEM -6 | 45 | 714243448 | OT | MIA Q4 Late over Lead lost |
20–28 |
2023 · Week 3 |
COLO -23 | 63 | 2835355678 | OT | CSU Q1 Late over Lead lost |
35–43 |
JXST
OHIO
USC
TCU
TXST
MRSH
EMU
BUFF
GT
WAKE
HOU
ORST
PITT
WVU
UNT
WMU
USF
SJSU
DUKE
NU
ALA
MICH
BYU
OKST
AKR
CLEM
MIA
CSU
COLOWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 1,568
Q2 16% 495
Q3 15% 471
Q4 18% 557
OT 1% 18
Push 1% 34
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 69% of 2,931 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 72% of 2,990 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 516 | 100% 516 |
| 1–3 | 192 | 95% 182 |
| 4–7 | 295 | 86% 255 |
| 8–10 | 261 | 70% 184 |
| 11–14 | 345 | 58% 200 |
| 15–17 | 270 | 41% 110 |
| 18–21 | 339 | 27% 92 |
| 22+ | 925 | 7% 67 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.