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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

MD Eastern @ Stony Brook

Stony Brook Arena · at Stony Brook
#364UMESMD Eastern
@
#191STBKStony Brook
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UMESThis seasonSTBK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects STBK 78–60 · win probability STBK 94%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 138.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STBK has more of the edges

UMES 1, STBK 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
STBKBig
UMES offense vs STBK defense
Offense 364th of 366 against a defense 164th, on the model’s ratings
STBKBig
STBK offense vs UMES defense
Offense 235th of 366 against a defense 350th, on the model’s ratings
STBKSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UMES 23.7%, STBK 16.7%. Forced: UMES 18.0%, STBK 17.2%
STBKSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UMES 9%, STBK 48%. Transfers in: UMES 1, STBK 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
STBKSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UMES 29.4, STBK 28.4. Allowed: UMES 43.0, STBK 35.4
UMESSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UMES 32.4%, STBK 28.0%. Defensive: UMES 66.4%, STBK 67.7%
STBKSmall
Home court
STBK at home. This season: STBK 0-0 at home, UMES 0-0 away
STBKSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UMES 47.8 and allows 50.8; STBK 50.2 and allows 50.7
STBKSmall
Three-pointers
UMES hits 29.0% and allows 33.5%; STBK hits 34.8% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 33.5% and 45.8% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
UMES has played the 240th-hardest schedule, STBK the 204th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UMES plays 65.8 a game (321st fastest), STBK 67.3 (269th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—STBK -18.0—
Total—138.8—
Projected score—UMES 60.4 · STBK 78.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSTBK -10.6—
1H total65.0—
1H projected scoreUMES 27.2 · STBK 37.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Stony Brook has the better starters

Position by position: MD Eastern 0, Stony Brook 1, even 4
MD EasternBetterStony Brook
G I. Hall NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G C. O'Connor8.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.8 ast Not ranked
F L. Beckwith1.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 1
STBKBig
G E. Simmon6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 46
F L. Gibson-Savadel TR2.3 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F B. Ndjonga TR13.8 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 45
F E. Berhanu NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F T. Valentiny4.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 18
F G. Tokody NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F Q. Gorman3.9 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 25
MD EasternBetterStony Brook
UMES offense364th of 366 · -15.3
STBKBig
STBK defense164th of 366 · -3.7
UMES defense350th of 366 · -9.7
STBKSmall
STBK offense235th of 366 · -7.2
BackcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-3.5 · 4 players
Even
Frontcourt-3.4 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUMES betterSTBK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MD Eastern
Guards
I. HallNewE. JohnsonNewI. GriffinNewS. MooreNewB. GardnerNewV. EzehNew
Forwards
L. Beckwith17 minL. Gibson-Savadel7 min · TRE. BerhanuNewG. TokodyNewA. ColeNewD. Hall-JohnsonNew
Centers
E. OgohNew
Stony Brook
Guards
C. O'Connor27 minE. Simmon17 minJ. Butler13 minM. Ugusuk11 min · TRK. Price7 min · TRL. Dagostino2 min
Forwards
B. Ndjonga33 min · TRT. Valentiny19 minQ. Gorman19 minJ. Daughtry16 min · TRE. Vatan3 min · TR
Centers
L. Van ElswykNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UMESSTBK
Scoring
62.4 #360Points per game70.7 #270
0.94 #358Points per possession1.05 #254
65.8 #321Pace (possessions)67.3 #269
Shooting
47.8 #319Effective FG%50.2 #227
29.0 #3543-point %34.8 #128
33.5 #3093-point attempt rate45.8 #50
29.4 #321Free throw rate28.4 #339
Possessions
23.7 #365Turnover rate16.7 #181
32.4 #112Offensive rebound rate28.0 #267
13.0 #213Assists per game12.9 #216
Defense
71.5 #91Points allowed72.5 #118
1.09 #207Points allowed per possession1.08 #168
50.8 #142Opponent effective FG%50.7 #138
33.5 #156Opponent 3-point %35.7 #291
18.0 #95Turnovers forced17.2 #135
66.4 #311Defensive rebound rate67.7 #275
5.7 #274Steals per game6.3 #201
2.5 #302Blocks per game3.6 #122
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

MD Eastern

7-23 in 2025-26 overall · 5-10 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs NC Central76–83
  • Lvs Delaware St56–57
  • Lvs NC Central73–77
  • Wvs SC State69–57
  • L@ Coppin St65–71

A week or more of rest.

Stony Brook

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Campbell89–96
  • Lvs Towson57–69
  • L@ Hofstra58–67
  • L@ Monmouth69–82
  • Wvs Hampton79–72

A week or more of rest.