Houston Christian Huskies at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 2, 8:00 PM ETCajundome · at Louisiana

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hou Christian and Louisiana
HCU	This season	UL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UL 70–65 · win probability UL 69%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 135.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UL has more of the edges

HCU 2, UL 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HCUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: HCU 36.0, UL 28.7. Allowed: HCU 30.7, UL 45.8

ULBig

HCU offense vs UL defense

Offense 342nd of 366 against a defense 157th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

HCU has played the 332nd-hardest schedule, UL the 226th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HCUSmall

UL offense vs HCU defense

Offense 292nd of 366 against a defense 203rd, on the model’s ratings

ULSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HCU 18.9%, UL 16.8%. Forced: HCU 17.6%, UL 18.3%

ULSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HCU 25%, UL 59%. Transfers in: HCU 5, UL 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

ULSmall

Home court

UL at home. This season: UL 0-0 at home, HCU 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

HCU hits 31.7% and allows 35.0%; UL hits 33.6% and allows 35.6%. Threes are 36.5% and 40.5% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HCU 29.9%, UL 28.4%. Defensive: HCU 67.5%, UL 67.7%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: HCU 49.7 and allows 54.2; UL 47.1 and allows 52.6

Context

Tempo

About 64 possessions: HCU plays 64.7 a game (352nd fastest), UL 64.1 (359th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UL -5.5	—
Total	—	135.3	—
Projected score	—	HCU 64.9 · UL 70.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UL -3.2	—
1H total	63.4	—
1H projected score	HCU 30.1 · UL 33.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HCU LWLWL	14-16	47%	8-9	—
UL WLLWL	15-18	45%	8-7	—

Venue/role: HCU away; UL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HCU UUUUU	14-16	47%	10-20
UL UOUOO	15-18	45%	11-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HCU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
UL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hou Christian

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ MCN	L69–73WO
Dec 7	@ SELA	L47–55LU

Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ TULN	L62–66WU
Dec 12	@ ORU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hou Christian

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L W L W L L W L L L L L L L L W W L W L L L L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W L W L W W L W L W L L L W W L L W W L L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U U U O O O O O O U O O U O O U O O U U O U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UCSD	L 60-78	+7.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 138
Nov 13	vsULM	W 72-61	-8.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 25	@BELL	L 69-74	-2.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 26	@CIT	W 72-65	-1.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 137
Nov 29	@GASO	L 62-80	+7.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 142
Dec 2	@UNT	L 75-77	+11.5	W +9.5	127.5	O 152
Dec 6	@NOLA	W 85-76	+4.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 161
Dec 13	vsSELA	L 71-74	-2.5	L −5.5	132.5	O 145
Dec 15	vsMCN	L 68-78	+14.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 146
Dec 17	@NICH	L 64-79	+3.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 143
Dec 29	@ISU	L 61-89	+35.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 3	@UIW	L 56-73	+6.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 5	vsAMCC	L 65-81	+3.5	L −12.5	132.5	O 146
Jan 10	@SFA	L 67-85	+12.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 152
Jan 12	@LAM	L 56-64	+8.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 120
Jan 17	vsETAM	W 81-70	-2.5	W +8.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 19	vsNWST	W 82-80	-2.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 162
Jan 24	vsRGV	L 51-68	+2.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 27	vsUIW	W 81-75	+1.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 31	@AMCC	L 71-73	+7.5	W +5.5	135.5	O 144
Feb 2	@RGV	L 57-74	+9.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 131
Feb 7	@SELA	L 47-55	+4.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 102
Feb 9	@MCN	L 69-73	+21.5	W +17.5	137.5	O 142
Feb 14	vsNOLA	W 61-60	-1.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 121
Feb 16	vsNICH	W 72-68	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 140
Feb 21	@NWST	L 53-71	+2.5	L −15.5	134.5	U 124
Feb 23	@ETAM	W 69-68	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 28	vsSFA	L 56-77	+8.5	L −12.5	138.5	U 133
Mar 2	vsLAM	W 75-53	+2.5	W +24.5	132.5	U 128
Mar 8	vsNOLA	L 60-73	+5.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCSD

L 60-78

−10.5

ULM

W 72-61

+2.5

BELL

L 69-74

−7.5

CIT

W 72-65

+5.5

GASO

L 62-80

−10.5

UNT

L 75-77

+9.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+13.5

SELA

L 71-74

−5.5

MCN

L 68-78

+4.5

NICH

L 64-79

−11.5

ISU

L 61-89

+7.5

UIW

L 56-73

−10.5

AMCC

L 65-81

−12.5

SFA

L 67-85

−5.5

LAM

L 56-64

+0.5

ETAM

W 81-70

+8.5

NWST

W 82-80

−0.5

RGV

L 51-68

−14.5

UIW

W 81-75

+7.5

AMCC

L 71-73

+5.5

RGV

L 57-74

−7.5

SELA

L 47-55

−3.5

MCN

L 69-73

+17.5

NOLA

W 61-60

−0.5

NICH

W 72-68

+2.5

NWST

L 53-71

−15.5

ETAM

W 69-68

+3.5

SFA

L 56-77

−12.5

LAM

W 75-53

+24.5

NOLA

L 60-73

−7.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCSD

L 60-78

−3.5

ULM

W 72-61

−10.5

BELL

L 69-74

−1.5

CIT

W 72-65

−0.5

GASO

L 62-80

−6.5

UNT

L 75-77

+24.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+20.5

SELA

L 71-74

+12.5

MCN

L 68-78

+8.5

NICH

L 64-79

+5.5

ISU

L 61-89

+4.5

UIW

L 56-73

−12.5

AMCC

L 65-81

+13.5

SFA

L 67-85

+14.5

LAM

L 56-64

−14.5

ETAM

W 81-70

+11.5

NWST

W 82-80

+22.5

RGV

L 51-68

−21.5

UIW

W 81-75

+15.5

AMCC

L 71-73

+8.5

RGV

L 57-74

−10.5

SELA

L 47-55

−31.5

MCN

L 69-73

+4.5

NOLA

W 61-60

−27.5

NICH

W 72-68

+3.5

NWST

L 53-71

−10.5

ETAM

W 69-68

−1.5

SFA

L 56-77

−5.5

LAM

W 75-53

−4.5

NOLA

L 60-73

−10.5

over 14under 16avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Louisiana

33 games played

Straight up

11-22

33% wins

Against the spread

15-18

45% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-18

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2233%

L W L L L L L L L L L L W W L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1845%

L W W L L L L L W W L W W W L L L L W W L W W W W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1845%

U U U O O U U U U O U U O U U O O O U U O O U U O O O U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BALL	L 64-75	+4.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 139
Nov 7	vsSELA	W 58-52	-3.5	W +2.5	135.5	U 110
Nov 11	vsTULN	L 62-66	+5.5	W +1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	@MCN	L 62-88	+15.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 150
Nov 18	@STAN	L 66-93	+20.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 159
Nov 21	@SCU	L 43-80	+19.5	L −17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 24	@UCD	L 56-77	+9.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsJKST	L 45-51	-5.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 3	@LAM	L 55-65	+10.5	W +0.5	129.5	U 120
Dec 6	vsUNCW	L 63-70	+12.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 133
Dec 13	@LT	L 44-65	+9.5	L −11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 18	@USM	L 54-62	+11.5	W +3.5	132.5	U 116
Dec 20	@ULM	W 76-62	-1.5	W +12.5	136.5	O 138
Dec 28	vsNORF	W 63-54	-3.5	W +5.5	126.5	U 117
Dec 31	vsUSA	L 58-63	+3.5	L −1.5	127.5	U 121
Jan 3	vsUSM	L 67-74	+3.5	L −3.5	129.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsULM	W 85-79	-7.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 164
Jan 10	vsTROY	L 70-90	+9.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 14	@TXST	L 54-59	+8.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 113
Jan 17	@USA	W 59-56	+9.5	W +12.5	129.5	U 115
Jan 22	@APP	L 58-72	+9.5	L −4.5	124.5	O 130
Jan 29	vsGAST	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsGASO	W 69-60	+2.5	W +11.5	144.5	U 129
Feb 4	@JMU	W 64-61	+9.5	W +12.5	132.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsCMU	W 85-80	-2.5	W +2.5	134.5	O 165
Feb 12	vsCCU	L 65-69	+1.5	L −2.5	132.5	O 134
Feb 16	@ODU	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 19	vsARST	L 62-79	+8.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 141
Feb 21	vsTXST	W 67-54	+3.5	W +16.5	134.5	U 121
Feb 24	@TROY	L 59-78	+11.5	L −7.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 27	@ARST	L 58-81	+13.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 139
Mar 3	vsGAST	W 84-75	+1.5	W +10.5	134.5	O 159
Mar 4	vsJMU	L 72-87	+6.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−6.5

SELA

W 58-52

+2.5

TULN

L 62-66

+1.5

MCN

L 62-88

−10.5

STAN

L 66-93

−6.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−11.5

JKST

L 45-51

−11.5

LAM

L 55-65

+0.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+5.5

L 44-65

−11.5

USM

L 54-62

+3.5

ULM

W 76-62

+12.5

NORF

W 63-54

+5.5

USA

L 58-63

−1.5

USM

L 67-74

−3.5

ULM

W 85-79

−1.5

TROY

L 70-90

−10.5

TXST

L 54-59

+3.5

USA

W 59-56

+12.5

APP

L 58-72

−4.5

GAST

W 82-72

+11.5

GASO

W 69-60

+11.5

JMU

W 64-61

+12.5

CMU

W 85-80

+2.5

CCU

L 65-69

−2.5

ODU

L 72-83

−4.5

ARST

L 62-79

−8.5

TXST

W 67-54

+16.5

TROY

L 59-78

−7.5

ARST

L 58-81

−9.5

GAST

W 84-75

+10.5

JMU

L 72-87

−8.5

covered 15didn’t cover 18avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BALL

L 64-75

−2.5

SELA

W 58-52

−25.5

TULN

L 62-66

−7.5

MCN

L 62-88

+15.5

STAN

L 66-93

+19.5

SCU

L 43-80

−17.5

UCD

L 56-77

−3.5

JKST

L 45-51

−40.5

LAM

L 55-65

−9.5

UNCW

L 63-70

+2.5

L 44-65

−17.5

USM

L 54-62

−16.5

ULM

W 76-62

+1.5

NORF

W 63-54

−9.5

USA

L 58-63

−6.5

USM

L 67-74

+11.5

ULM

W 85-79

+24.5

TROY

L 70-90

+23.5

TXST

L 54-59

−20.5

USA

W 59-56

−14.5

APP

L 58-72

+5.5

GAST

W 82-72

+24.5

GASO

W 69-60

−15.5

JMU

W 64-61

−7.5

CMU

W 85-80

+30.5

CCU

L 65-69

+1.5

ODU

L 72-83

+19.5

ARST

L 62-79

−3.5

TXST

W 67-54

−13.5

TROY

L 59-78

+2.5

ARST

L 58-81

−7.5

GAST

W 84-75

+24.5

JMU

L 72-87

+24.5

over 15under 18avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Hou Christian 1, Louisiana 1, even 3

Hou ChristianBetterLouisiana

G C. Mubiru TR6.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 37

Even

G D. Lavergne9.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 40

G D. Samuels8.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 2 ast Score 46

HCUBig

G M. Cooper5.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.5 ast Score 1

G E. Pippa-White TR4.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 5

ULBig

G T. Middleton TR12.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 3 ast Score 49

F S. Simmons TR6.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33

No call

G J. Keller17 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast Not ranked

F M. Mara5.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33

Even

F J. Harris TR9.3 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34

Hou ChristianBetterLouisiana

HCU offense342nd of 366 · -11.7

ULBig

UL defense157th of 366 · -3.4

HCU defense203rd of 366 · -5.0

HCUSmall

UL offense292nd of 366 · -9.0

Backcourt-4.6 · 3 players

HCUSmall

Backcourt-6.4 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

ULSmall

Frontcourt-1.2 · 1 player

Bench-3.9 · 3 players

ULBig

Bench-0.5 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestHCU betterUL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hou Christian

Guards

C. Mubiru27 min · TRD. Samuels23 minE. Pippa-White18 min · TRB. Alvarez15 min · TRK. Clark7 minM. AlexanderNew

Forwards

S. Simmons26 min · TRM. Mara20 minA. Miller15 min · TRI. SackoNewK. KeinysNewJ. PapeNew

Louisiana

Guards

D. Lavergne30 minM. Cooper30 minT. Middleton30 min · TRJ. Keller30 minL. Myers2 minD. WareNew

Forwards

J. Harris27 min · TRD. Pounds18 min · TRT. Jones17 minJ. Evans11 minR. OlajuwonNewT. DuncanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HCU66.3 #342

UL63.7 #354

Points per possession

HCU1.03 #297

UL0.99 #333

Pace (possessions)

HCU64.7 #352

UL64.1 #359

Shooting

Effective FG%

HCU49.7 #252

UL47.1 #334

3-point %

HCU31.7 #291

UL33.6 #189

3-point attempt rate

HCU36.5 #239

UL40.5 #160

Free throw rate

HCU36.0 #151

UL28.7 #334

Possessions

Turnover rate

HCU18.9 #317

UL16.8 #185

Offensive rebound rate

HCU29.9 #205

UL28.4 #251

Assists per game

HCU13.7 #164

UL10.3 #354

Defense

Points allowed

HCU72.4 #113

UL70.7 #69

Points allowed per possession

HCU1.12 #268

UL1.10 #227

Opponent effective FG%

HCU54.2 #304

UL52.6 #247

Opponent 3-point %

HCU35.0 #248

UL35.6 #286

Turnovers forced

HCU17.6 #117

UL18.3 #85

Defensive rebound rate

HCU67.5 #279

UL67.7 #272

Steals per game

HCU6.3 #200

UL5.8 #257

Blocks per game

HCU3.7 #111

UL3.5 #141

HCU		UL
Scoring
66.3 #342	Points per game	63.7 #354
1.03 #297	Points per possession	0.99 #333
64.7 #352	Pace (possessions)	64.1 #359
Shooting
49.7 #252	Effective FG%	47.1 #334
31.7 #291	3-point %	33.6 #189
36.5 #239	3-point attempt rate	40.5 #160
36.0 #151	Free throw rate	28.7 #334
Possessions
18.9 #317	Turnover rate	16.8 #185
29.9 #205	Offensive rebound rate	28.4 #251
13.7 #164	Assists per game	10.3 #354
Defense
72.4 #113	Points allowed	70.7 #69
1.12 #268	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #227
54.2 #304	Opponent effective FG%	52.6 #247
35.0 #248	Opponent 3-point %	35.6 #286
17.6 #117	Turnovers forced	18.3 #85
67.5 #279	Defensive rebound rate	67.7 #272
6.3 #200	Steals per game	5.8 #257
3.7 #111	Blocks per game	3.5 #141

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hou Christian

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs LSU N Orleans60–73
Wvs Lamar75–53
Lvs SF Austin56–77
W@ East Texas A&M69–68
L@ N'Western St53–71

A week or more of rest.

Louisiana

11-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs James Madison72–87
Wvs Georgia St84–75
L@ Arkansas St58–81
L@ Troy59–78
Wvs Texas St67–54

A week or more of rest.

Hou Christian @ Louisiana

What could decide it: UL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Hou Christian

Louisiana

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hou Christian

Louisiana