South Carolina Upstate Spartans at UNC Greensboro Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 11:00 AM ETFirst Horizon Coliseum · at UNC Greensboro

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SC Upstate and UNC Greensboro
UPST	This season	UNCG
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNCG 77–72 · win probability UNCG 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNCG has more of the edges

UPST 0, UNCG 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNCGBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: UPST 32.8, UNCG 42.0. Allowed: UPST 36.0, UNCG 30.6

UNCGSmall

Three-pointers

UPST hits 31.4% and allows 35.6%; UNCG hits 35.6% and allows 38.0%. Threes are 35.6% and 40.2% of their shots

UNCGSmall

UNCG offense vs UPST defense

Offense 260th of 366 against a defense 338th, on the model’s ratings

UNCGSmall

Home court

UNCG at home. This season: UNCG 0-0 at home, UPST 0-0 away

UNCGSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UPST 29.2%, UNCG 28.1%. Defensive: UPST 68.6%, UNCG 71.0%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: UPST plays 70.5 a game (97th fastest), UNCG 69.3 (157th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UPST 18.1%, UNCG 15.0%. Forced: UPST 16.5%, UNCG 13.6%

Context

Schedule so far

UPST has played the 281st-hardest schedule, UNCG the 256th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: UPST 48.3 and allows 51.0; UNCG 52.0 and allows 56.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UPST 9%, UNCG 5%. Transfers in: UPST 3, UNCG 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

UPST offense vs UNCG defense

Offense 299th of 366 against a defense 299th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNCG -5.0	—
Total	—	149.6	—
Projected score	—	UPST 72.3 · UNCG 77.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCG -2.8	—
1H total	70.0	—
1H projected score	UPST 33.6 · UNCG 36.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UPST WWLLL	13-16	45%	7-9	—
UNCG WLWWL	13-19	41%	5-7	—

Venue/role: UPST away; UNCG home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UPST UOUUU	14-15	48%	10-19
UNCG OOUUO	22-10	69%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UPST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
UNCG	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SC Upstate

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	@ CIT	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs WGA	L64–72LU
Dec 2	vs GASO	No recent meeting

UNC Greensboro

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	@ PEPP	No recent meeting
Nov 24	@ UCSB	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ VMI	W84–70WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC Upstate

29 games played

Straight up

10-19

34% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-1934%

L W L L L W L W W L W L L L L W L L L W L W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

W W W L L W W W W W L L L L L W L L L W L W L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

O U U O U O U O U U O U U O U O O O U U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CBU	L 75-87	+14.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 5	@FRES	W 67-66	+9.5	W +10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 15	@UNCW	L 60-73	+14.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 133
Nov 19	vsTNTC	L 84-88	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 172
Nov 21	@WGA	L 64-72	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsNCCU	W 82-67	-7.5	W +7.5	148.5	O 149
Nov 29	@NEB	L 63-72	+25.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsCCU	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	144.5	O 163
Dec 6	vsWCU	W 78-67	-2.5	W +8.5	149.5	U 145
Dec 13	@UNC	L 62-80	+29.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 142
Dec 16	@SCST	W 78-72	-10.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 20	@YSU	L 65-74	+6.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 31	vsRAD	L 69-76	-1.5	L −8.5	158.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PRES	L 77-86	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	O 163
Jan 10	vsWIN	L 50-71	+5.5	L −15.5	157.5	U 121
Jan 14	@CHSO	W 86-81	+6.5	W +11.5	155.5	O 167
Jan 17	@HPU	L 69-89	+16.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 158
Jan 21	vsUNCA	L 69-83	-1.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 23	@GWEB	L 65-67	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 132
Jan 29	vsLONG	W 65-60	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 125
Feb 4	@UNCA	L 67-76	+6.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 143
Feb 7	vsCHSO	W 100-94	+1.5	W +7.5	150.5	O 194
Feb 12	vsHPU	L 70-95	+14.5	L −10.5	154.5	O 165
Feb 14	@LONG	L 75-82	+6.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@WIN	L 64-68	+13.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsPRES	W 76-74	+1.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 26	@RAD	L 59-71	+7.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 130
Feb 28	vsGWEB	W 71-61	-11.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 132
Mar 4	vsGWEB	L 64-65	-10.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+2.5

FRES

W 67-66

+10.5

UNCW

L 60-73

+1.5

TNTC

L 84-88

−6.5

WGA

L 64-72

−5.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+7.5

NEB

L 63-72

+16.5

CCU

W 85-78

+4.5

WCU

W 78-67

+8.5

UNC

L 62-80

+11.5

SCST

W 78-72

−4.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−8.5

PRES

L 77-86

−7.5

WIN

L 50-71

−15.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

−3.5

UNCA

L 69-83

−15.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−11.5

LONG

W 65-60

+6.5

UNCA

L 67-76

−2.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+7.5

HPU

L 70-95

−10.5

LONG

L 75-82

−0.5

WIN

L 64-68

+9.5

PRES

W 76-74

+3.5

RAD

L 59-71

−4.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−1.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−11.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 75-87

+9.5

FRES

W 67-66

−31.5

UNCW

L 60-73

−22.5

TNTC

L 84-88

+21.5

WGA

L 64-72

−17.5

NCCU

W 82-67

+0.5

NEB

L 63-72

−22.5

CCU

W 85-78

+18.5

WCU

W 78-67

−4.5

UNC

L 62-80

−9.5

SCST

W 78-72

+2.5

YSU

L 65-74

−2.5

RAD

L 69-76

−13.5

PRES

L 77-86

+25.5

WIN

L 50-71

−36.5

CHSO

W 86-81

+11.5

HPU

L 69-89

+5.5

UNCA

L 69-83

+6.5

GWEB

L 65-67

−21.5

LONG

W 65-60

−22.5

UNCA

L 67-76

+3.5

CHSO

W 100-94

+43.5

HPU

L 70-95

+10.5

LONG

L 75-82

+9.5

WIN

L 64-68

−26.5

PRES

W 76-74

+8.5

RAD

L 59-71

−22.5

GWEB

W 71-61

−14.5

GWEB

L 64-65

−14.5

over 14under 15avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNC Greensboro

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

13-19

41% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-10

69% overs · avg +8.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

L L L L L W L L L W L W W L L W L W L L L W W W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1941%

L L L L W W L L L W L W W L L L L W L L L W W W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

22-1069%

O O O U O U U O O O U O O O U U O O O O U O U O O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@KSU	L 64-93	+18.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsELON	L 90-92	-4.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 182
Nov 12	@NCSU	L 64-110	+30.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsAPSU	L 63-69	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 132
Nov 20	@QUC	L 94-101	+7.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 195
Nov 23	vsYSU	W 68-62	+5.5	W +11.5	152.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsDEL	L 60-73	-1.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 133
Nov 26	vsM-OH	L 71-82	+10.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 2	vsUNCA	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	143.5	O 159
Dec 6	@ECU	W 82-78	+7.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 160
Dec 16	vsNCAT	L 65-71	-6.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 1	vsUTC	W 77-72	+2.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsSAM	W 89-82	+2.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 7	@WOF	L 85-97	+7.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 182
Jan 10	@ETSU	L 60-86	+11.5	L −14.5	148.5	U 146
Jan 15	vsCIT	W 69-66	-9.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 135
Jan 17	vsMER	L 92-102	+5.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 194
Jan 21	@VMI	W 85-78	-2.5	W +4.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 23	vsFUR	L 66-89	+4.5	L −18.5	150.5	O 155
Jan 29	@MER	L 77-95	+10.5	L −7.5	158.5	O 172
Jan 31	@CIT	L 66-71	-2.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 4	vsWCU	W 81-78	+1.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 159
Feb 8	@FUR	W 67-64	+10.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsVMI	W 92-71	-8.5	W +12.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsWOF	W 99-89	+2.5	W +12.5	154.5	O 188
Feb 18	@WCU	L 77-91	+5.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 21	vsETSU	L 75-87	+6.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 26	@UTC	W 85-80	+4.5	W +9.5	157.5	O 165
Feb 28	@SAM	L 78-87	+8.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 165
Mar 6	vsVMI	W 84-70	-7.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 154
Mar 7	vsWOF	W 75-72	+4.5	W +7.5	155.5	U 147
Mar 8	vsFUR	L 75-81	+5.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

−10.5

ELON

L 90-92

−6.5

NCSU

L 64-110

−15.5

APSU

L 63-69

−7.5

QUC

L 94-101

+0.5

YSU

W 68-62

+11.5

DEL

L 60-73

−14.5

M-OH

L 71-82

−0.5

UNCA

L 77-82

−0.5

ECU

W 82-78

+11.5

NCAT

L 65-71

−12.5

UTC

W 77-72

+7.5

SAM

W 89-82

+9.5

WOF

L 85-97

−4.5

ETSU

L 60-86

−14.5

CIT

W 69-66

−6.5

MER

L 92-102

−4.5

VMI

W 85-78

+4.5

FUR

L 66-89

−18.5

MER

L 77-95

−7.5

CIT

L 66-71

−7.5

WCU

W 81-78

+4.5

FUR

W 67-64

+13.5

VMI

W 92-71

+12.5

WOF

W 99-89

+12.5

WCU

L 77-91

−8.5

ETSU

L 75-87

−5.5

UTC

W 85-80

+9.5

SAM

L 78-87

−0.5

VMI

W 84-70

+6.5

WOF

W 75-72

+7.5

FUR

L 75-81

−0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 19avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

+8.5

ELON

L 90-92

+39.5

NCSU

L 64-110

+20.5

APSU

L 63-69

−13.5

QUC

L 94-101

+44.5

YSU

W 68-62

−22.5

DEL

L 60-73

−9.5

M-OH

L 71-82

+2.5

UNCA

L 77-82

+15.5

ECU

W 82-78

+20.5

NCAT

L 65-71

−11.5

UTC

W 77-72

+1.5

SAM

W 89-82

+19.5

WOF

L 85-97

+28.5

ETSU

L 60-86

−2.5

CIT

W 69-66

−13.5

MER

L 92-102

+38.5

VMI

W 85-78

+11.5

FUR

L 66-89

+4.5

MER

L 77-95

+13.5

CIT

L 66-71

−10.5

WCU

W 81-78

+3.5

FUR

W 67-64

−18.5

VMI

W 92-71

+12.5

WOF

W 99-89

+33.5

WCU

L 77-91

+12.5

ETSU

L 75-87

+13.5

UTC

W 85-80

+7.5

SAM

L 78-87

+8.5

VMI

W 84-70

−0.5

WOF

W 75-72

−8.5

FUR

L 75-81

+8.5

over 22under 10avg +8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SC Upstate has the better starters

Position by position: SC Upstate 1, UNC Greensboro 0, even 4

SC UpstateBetterUNC Greensboro

G C. Rich0 pts · 0 reb · 2 ast Not ranked

No call

G B. Stacker TR11.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 47

F M. Webb TR9.9 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 56

UPSTBig

G C. Grant TR2.2 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 9

F D. Tubek TR2 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F Z. Fitch TR6.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31

F Z. Johnson TR0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F V. Collins TR1 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

C C. Collier1.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 10

No call

F A. Beljan TR2.2 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

SC UpstateBetterUNC Greensboro

UPST offense299th of 366 · -9.2

Even

UNCG defense299th of 366 · -7.7

UPST defense338th of 366 · -8.9

UNCGSmall

UNCG offense260th of 366 · -8.0

Backcourt-0.1 · 1 player

UPSTSmall

Backcourt-2.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.0 · 4 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.9 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.5 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestUPST betterUNCG betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SC Upstate

Guards

C. Rich5 minA. Allen-JohnsonNewW. TessemaNewR. NaugleNewJ. PattersonNewN. MvulaNew

Forwards

M. Webb27 min · TRD. Tubek7 min · TRZ. Johnson2 min · TRK. PayneNewD. EdmondNewA. PerottiNew

Centers

C. Collier14 min

UNC Greensboro

Guards

B. Stacker29 min · TRC. Grant11 min · TRC. Bailey6 minR. Greer6 min · TRB. MishakNewJ. ManiNew

Forwards

Z. Fitch23 min · TRV. Collins7 min · TRA. Beljan7 min · TRC. Bynum4 minC. LaFrentzNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UPST71.0 #265

UNCG76.6 #128

Points per possession

UPST1.00 #324

UNCG1.11 #125

Pace (possessions)

UPST70.5 #97

UNCG69.3 #157

Shooting

Effective FG%

UPST48.3 #307

UNCG52.0 #146

3-point %

UPST31.4 #308

UNCG35.6 #80

3-point attempt rate

UPST35.6 #256

UNCG40.2 #165

Free throw rate

UPST32.8 #239

UNCG42.0 #31

Possessions

Turnover rate

UPST18.1 #274

UNCG15.0 #63

Offensive rebound rate

UPST29.2 #231

UNCG28.1 #259

Assists per game

UPST11.7 #304

UNCG12.1 #283

Defense

Points allowed

UPST75.7 #210

UNCG81.9 #341

Points allowed per possession

UPST1.08 #170

UNCG1.18 #347

Opponent effective FG%

UPST51.0 #156

UNCG56.2 #347

Opponent 3-point %

UPST35.6 #289

UNCG38.0 #357

Turnovers forced

UPST16.5 #185

UNCG13.6 #343

Defensive rebound rate

UPST68.6 #224

UNCG71.0 #104

Steals per game

UPST6.1 #220

UNCG5.5 #301

Blocks per game

UPST4.7 #24

UNCG1.9 #350

UPST		UNCG
Scoring
71.0 #265	Points per game	76.6 #128
1.00 #324	Points per possession	1.11 #125
70.5 #97	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #157
Shooting
48.3 #307	Effective FG%	52.0 #146
31.4 #308	3-point %	35.6 #80
35.6 #256	3-point attempt rate	40.2 #165
32.8 #239	Free throw rate	42.0 #31
Possessions
18.1 #274	Turnover rate	15.0 #63
29.2 #231	Offensive rebound rate	28.1 #259
11.7 #304	Assists per game	12.1 #283
Defense
75.7 #210	Points allowed	81.9 #341
1.08 #170	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #347
51.0 #156	Opponent effective FG%	56.2 #347
35.6 #289	Opponent 3-point %	38.0 #357
16.5 #185	Turnovers forced	13.6 #343
68.6 #224	Defensive rebound rate	71.0 #104
6.1 #220	Steals per game	5.5 #301
4.7 #24	Blocks per game	1.9 #350

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SC Upstate

10-19 in 2025-26 overall · 5-12 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Gardner-Webb64–65
Wvs Gardner-Webb71–61
L@ Radford59–71
Wvs Presbyterian76–74
L@ Winthrop64–68

A week or more of rest.

UNC Greensboro

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Furman75–81
Wvs Wofford75–72
Wvs VMI84–70
L@ Samford78–87
W@ Chattanooga85–80

A week or more of rest.

SC Upstate @ UNC Greensboro

What could decide it: UNCG has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

SC Upstate

UNC Greensboro

SC Upstate has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SC Upstate

UNC Greensboro