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NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

UC Irvine vs San Diego

Acrisure Arena · Neutral site
#149UCIUC Irvine
vs
#146USDSan Diego
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UCIThis seasonUSD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCI 74–73 · win probability UCI 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCI has more of the edges

UCI 4, USD 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UCIBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UCI 36.0, USD 25.8. Allowed: UCI 26.7, USD 38.8
UCIBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UCI 49.5 and allows 45.9; USD 51.2 and allows 54.7
UCISmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UCI 30.9%, USD 28.1%. Defensive: UCI 68.8%, USD 65.5%
Context
Schedule so far
UCI has played the 214th-hardest schedule, USD the 130th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCISmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UCI 44%, USD 7%. Transfers in: UCI 2, USD 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
USDSmall
Three-pointers
UCI hits 33.6% and allows 33.7%; USD hits 34.6% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 28.0% and 43.7% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: UCI plays 71.5 a game (51st fastest), USD 69.6 (139th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UCI 17.8%, USD 17.6%. Forced: UCI 18.8%, USD 18.8%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
UCI offense vs USD defense
Offense 187th of 366 against a defense 189th, on the model’s ratings
Even
USD offense vs UCI defense
Offense 127th of 366 against a defense 127th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCI -1.1—
Total—146.6—
Projected score—UCI 73.8 · USD 72.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCI -0.8—
1H total68.6—
1H projected scoreUCI 34.7 · USD 33.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UC Irvine 2, San Diego 2, even 1
UC IrvineBetterSan Diego
G T. Isaac6 pts · 3.1 reb · 3.5 ast Score 17
USDBig
G M. Worthy TR16.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 3 ast Score 72
G N. Cooper TR11.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 89
Even
G D. Hill TR14.2 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 92
G J. Jester6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 63
UCISmall
G D. Stromer TR6.4 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 29
F H. Carrington7.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 84
UCIBig
F T. McMorris TR7.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 47
F E. Chol4.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 28
USDSmall
F A. Munoz TR12.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 56
UC IrvineBetterSan Diego
UCI offense187th of 366 · -5.8
Even
USD defense189th of 366 · -4.4
UCI defense127th of 366 · -2.3
Even
USD offense127th of 366 · -3.5
Backcourt-0.5 · 3 players
USDSmall
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.4 · 2 players
Bench-1.3 · 3 players
USDSmall
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUCI betterUSD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UC Irvine
Guards
T. Isaac27 minN. Cooper25 min · TRJ. Jester16 minB. Egbo4 minL. RedfieldNewT. LeeNew
Forwards
H. Carrington17 minE. Chol17 minM. HodgesNewP. SpeesNewD. BenthoNew
Centers
N. Emeneke8 minO. Rioux2 min · TR
San Diego
Guards
M. Worthy35 min · TRD. Hill27 min · TRD. Stromer23 min · TRC. Versher2 minN. Del Bosque1 minB. RomanNew
Forwards
T. McMorris26 min · TRA. Munoz25 min · TRJ. Roberto Tanchyn19 min · TRS. Konneh13 min · TRA. Aviles11 minJ. HillNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UCIUSD
Scoring
74.2 #188Points per game72.8 #228
1.04 #278Points per possession1.05 #251
71.5 #51Pace (possessions)69.6 #139
Shooting
49.5 #268Effective FG%51.2 #185
33.6 #1913-point %34.6 #141
28.0 #3593-point attempt rate43.7 #96
36.0 #152Free throw rate25.8 #358
Possessions
17.8 #257Turnover rate17.6 #242
30.9 #166Offensive rebound rate28.1 #262
14.8 #103Assists per game15.4 #68
Defense
69.4 #54Points allowed78.8 #290
0.97 #7Points allowed per possession1.13 #286
45.9 #9Opponent effective FG%54.7 #320
33.7 #167Opponent 3-point %32.7 #100
18.8 #56Turnovers forced18.8 #55
68.8 #213Defensive rebound rate65.5 #328
7.8 #51Steals per game7.7 #65
5.8 #5Blocks per game2.6 #294
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UC Irvine

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 16-6 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNLV72–75
  • Lvs Hawai'i64–71
  • Wvs CSU Northridge93–78
  • Wvs UC Davis79–69
  • Wvs Cal Poly107–85

A week or more of rest.

San Diego

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Seattle U56–58
  • Wvs LMU66–62
  • L@ Portland74–87
  • L@ Oregon St82–92
  • Lvs LMU65–77

A week or more of rest.