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NCAAB · Wed, Dec 2

AR-Pine Bluff @ Saint Louis

Chaifetz Arena · at Saint Louis
#363UAPBAR-Pine Bluff
@
#69SLUSaint Louis
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UAPBThis seasonSLU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SLU 94–63 · win probability SLU 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SLU has more of the edges

UAPB 0, SLU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SLUBig
SLU offense vs UAPB defense
Offense 61st of 366 against a defense 365th, on the model’s ratings
SLUBig
UAPB offense vs SLU defense
Offense 336th of 366 against a defense 87th, on the model’s ratings
SLUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UAPB 50.0 and allows 52.6; SLU 59.7 and allows 45.2
Context
Schedule so far
UAPB has played the 300th-hardest schedule, SLU the 99th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SLUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UAPB 27.9%, SLU 30.7%. Defensive: UAPB 65.8%, SLU 72.8%
SLUBig
Three-pointers
UAPB hits 33.6% and allows 33.2%; SLU hits 39.9% and allows 30.3%. Threes are 37.1% and 45.1% of their shots
SLUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UAPB 8%, SLU 63%. Transfers in: UAPB 3, SLU 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
SLUSmall
Home court
SLU at home. This season: SLU 0-0 at home, UAPB 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UAPB 18.7%, SLU 17.2%. Forced: UAPB 16.4%, SLU 15.9%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UAPB 38.4, SLU 33.7. Allowed: UAPB 43.6, SLU 37.1
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: UAPB plays 71.5 a game (53rd fastest), SLU 72.1 (32nd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSLU -30.9
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model156.0
Model edge—
Projected score
UAPB 62.5 · SLU 93.5
Win probability
SLU 100%
1st half
Spread
SLU -18.3
Total
72.9
Projected score
UAPB 27.3 · SLU 45.6
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Saint Louis has the better starters

Position by position: AR-Pine Bluff 0, Saint Louis 1, even 4
AR-Pine BluffBetterSaint Louis
G J. Tatum TR7.7 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 25
SLUSmall
G Q. Jones9 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 51
G J. Hayes4.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G T. Green11.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 86
G D. Giddens TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G A. McCottry10.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 84
G H. Pickett0 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F I. Sharma9.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 67
F C. Smith TR0.6 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F A. Michaeli TR7.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 1 ast Score 58
AR-Pine BluffBetterSaint Louis
UAPB offense336th of 366 · -11.1
SLUBig
SLU defense87th of 366 · -0.1
UAPB defense365th of 366 · -12.7
SLUBig
SLU offense61st of 366 · +2.6
Backcourt-5.1 · 4 players
SLUBig
Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 1 player
SLUSmall
Frontcourt+0.6 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+3.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUAPB betterSLU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
AR-Pine Bluff
Guards
J. Tatum27 min · TRJ. Hayes15 minD. Giddens9 min · TRH. Pickett1 minD. CapriottiNewE. HernandezNew
Forwards
C. Smith7 min · TRC. WilliamsonNewM. WilliamsNewJ. NyakundiNew
Saint Louis
Guards
Q. Jones27 minT. Green24 minA. McCottry23 minK. Thames17 minC. Hutson4 minI. Holmes2 min
Forwards
I. Sharma22 minA. Michaeli18 min · TRE. Strong17 min · TRJ. Kerr6 minS. PearsonNewB. DiakiteNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UAPBSLU
Scoring
74.0 #195Points per game86.4 #7
1.04 #277Points per possession1.20 #14
71.5 #53Pace (possessions)72.1 #32
Shooting
50.0 #233Effective FG%59.7 #2
33.6 #1903-point %39.9 #2
37.1 #2273-point attempt rate45.1 #64
38.4 #91Free throw rate33.7 #221
Possessions
18.7 #310Turnover rate17.2 #218
27.9 #271Offensive rebound rate30.7 #173
14.1 #136Assists per game18.3 #8
Defense
81.9 #340Points allowed71.6 #94
1.14 #309Points allowed per possession0.99 #21
52.6 #249Opponent effective FG%45.2 #3
33.2 #136Opponent 3-point %30.3 #14
16.4 #192Turnovers forced15.9 #224
65.8 #321Defensive rebound rate72.8 #43
6.8 #142Steals per game7.1 #117
2.9 #244Blocks per game3.4 #168
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

AR-Pine Bluff

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern81–84
  • W@ Alcorn St83–48
  • L@ Jackson St78–81
  • Lvs Miss Valley St69–70
  • Wvs Prairie View84–82

A week or more of rest.

Saint Louis

28-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-4 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan72–95
  • Wvs Georgia102–77
  • Lvs Dayton69–70
  • Wvs G Washington88–81
  • L@ George Mason57–86

A week or more of rest.