Harrah's Cherokee Center · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
UNCG -7.5✓ UNCG covered by 6.5
UNCG -7.5✓ UNCG covered by 6.5Closing total154.5Under by 0.5
 VMI | This season | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| 3-25 | Record | 11-18 |
| 9-19 | ATS | 11-18 |
| 13-15 | O/U | 21-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VMI 74–81 UNCG · ✓ UNCG (74%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 27 | 43 | 70 |
| UNCG | 39 | 45 | 84 |
1st half: VMI 27, UNCG 39 (UNCG by 12). The model had UNCG by 4.3 and a total of 72.4 (actual 66).
Team stats
| VMI | UNCG | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-60 42% | Field goals | 34-68 50% |
| 10-30 33% | 3-pointers | 6-23 26% |
| 10-15 67% | Free throws | 10-10 100% |
| 29 10 off | Rebounds | 40 15 off |
| 13 | Assists | 19 |
| 5 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| VMI | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Johnson F | 40 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6-14 | 3-9 |
| Tan Yildizoglu G | 39 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 4-14 | 1-3 |
| Mario Tatum Jr. G | 30 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-4 |
| Linus Holmstrom G | 30 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 9-15 | 6-11 |
| Cal Liston F | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kaden Stuckey F | 33 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Walker Andrews G | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Mason Lawson, Branford Edmonds III, Alexander Daushvili, Rickey Bradley Jr., AJ Clark, Jaylen Pazon, Robert Peters, Mason Hagedorn
| UNCG | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilian Marville G | 33 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| KJ Younger G | 28 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 10-16 | 3-7 |
| Valentino Pinedo F | 27 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Justin Neely F | 22 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 6-11 | 0-2 |
| Noah Norgaard G | 19 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Donald Whitehead Jr. G | 29 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 5-15 | 1-6 |
| Clinton Efinda F | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Clyde Bailey II G | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Domas Kauzonas F | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Assane Mandian G | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Landon King, Braylen Bowman, Chane Bynum, Jordan Brown, Antwann Jones
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUNCG -7.5
ModelUNCG -7.4
Model edgeVMI +0.1
L UNCG covered
Total
Market154.5
Model154.9
Model edgeOver 0.4
L Under
Projected score
VMI 73.7 · UNCG 81.1
VMI 70 · UNCG 84
Win probability
UNCG 74%
1st half
Spread
UNCG -4.3
UNCG -12.0
Total
72.4
66 points
Projected score
VMI 34.1 · UNCG 38.3
VMI 27 · UNCG 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNCG -7.5
no move
CloseUNCG -7.5
No change since the open
Total
Open155.5
▼ 1
Close154.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
VMI +250 · UNCG -310
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNCG -7.5 · unchangedmodel UNCG -7.5 matches the line
model UNCG -7.5 = line ✓
Opened 155.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 1 downmodel 155
model 155
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 0-10 0% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
| UNCG | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
VMI 2–9 UNCGUNCG leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · UNCG has won the last 2 meetings · VMI 5-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2025-26 | VMI 71 @ UNCG 92 | UNCG -8.5 | UNCG W |
| Jan 21, 2025-26 | UNCG 85 @ VMI 78 | VMI +2.5 | UNCG W |
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | VMI 64 vs UNCG 57 | UNCG -9.5 | VMI W |
| Feb 12, 2024-25 | VMI 54 @ UNCG 80 | UNCG -8.5 | UNCG W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | UNCG 60 @ VMI 57 | VMI +8.5 | VMI W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
VMI
28 games played
Straight up
3-25
11% wins
Against the spread
9-19
32% covers · avg −5.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-15
46% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ USI | W 78-74 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 9 | @ MIZ | L 68-106 | +23.5 | L −14.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 15 | vs JAX | L 67-69 | +1.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 19 | @ RICH | L 54-87 | +14.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 22 | @ STET | L 80-99 | -2.5 | L −21.5 | 148.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 24 | vs BUF | L 70-78 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BGSU | L 48-81 | +11.5 | L −21.5 | 148.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 29 | @ UCF | L 57-82 | +25.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 9 | vs L-MD | W 86-70 | +2.5 | W +18.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 21 | @ RAD | L 90-97 | +11.5 | W +4.5 | 158.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 1 | vs SAM | L 58-78 | +6.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 3 | vs UTC | W 79-71 | +6.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 7 | @ ETSU | L 67-81 | +16.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @ FUR | L 48-69 | +12.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 15 | vs MER | L 67-77 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs CIT | L 68-82 | -6.5 | L −20.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 21 | vsUNCG | L 78-85 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 151.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 24 | @ WCU | L 58-88 | +8.5 | L −21.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 29 | @CIT | L 56-80 | +2.5 | L −21.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 31 | @MER | L 81-95 | +18.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | O 176 |
| Feb 4 | vs WOF | L 67-81 | +8.5 | L −5.5 | 149.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 7 | vsETSU | L 70-87 | +14.5 | L −2.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 11 | @UNCG | L 71-92 | +8.5 | L −12.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 14 | vsFUR | L 72-90 | +11.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 18 | @WOF | L 76-82 | +13.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | U 158 |
| Feb 21 | vsWCU | L 62-81 | +8.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 26 | @SAM | L 61-80 | +17.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 28 | @UTC | L 79-86 | +11.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@USI
USIW 78-74
+1.5
9
@MIZ
MIZL 68-106
−14.5
15
vsJAX
JAXL 67-69
−0.5
19
@RICH
RICHL 54-87
−18.5
22
@STET
STETL 80-99
−21.5
24
vsBUF
BUFL 70-78
−2.5
26
vsBGSU
BGSUL 48-81
−21.5
29
@UCF
UCFL 57-82
+0.5
9
vsL-MD
L-MDW 86-70
+18.5
21
@RAD
RADL 90-97
+4.5
1
vsSAM
SAML 58-78
−13.5
3
vsUTC
UTCW 79-71
+14.5
7
@ETSU
ETSUL 67-81
+2.5
10
@FUR
FURL 48-69
−8.5
15
vsMER
MERL 67-77
−1.5
17
vsCIT
CITL 68-82
−20.5
21
vsUNCG
UNCGL 78-85
−4.5
24
@WCU
WCUL 58-88
−21.5
29
@CIT
CITL 56-80
−21.5
31
@MER
MERL 81-95
+4.5
4
vsWOF
WOFL 67-81
−5.5
7
vsETSU
ETSUL 70-87
−2.5
11
@UNCG
UNCGL 71-92
−12.5
14
vsFUR
FURL 72-90
−6.5
18
@WOF
WOFL 76-82
+7.5
21
vsWCU
WCUL 62-81
−10.5
26
@SAM
SAML 61-80
−1.5
28
@UTC
UTCL 79-86
+4.5
covered 9didn’t cover 19avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@USI
USIW 78-74
−1.5
9
@MIZ
MIZL 68-106
+12.5
15
vsJAX
JAXL 67-69
−15.5
19
@RICH
RICHL 54-87
−11.5
22
@STET
STETL 80-99
+30.5
24
vsBUF
BUFL 70-78
−2.5
26
vsBGSU
BGSUL 48-81
−19.5
29
@UCF
UCFL 57-82
−20.5
9
vsL-MD
L-MDW 86-70
+4.5
21
@RAD
RADL 90-97
+28.5
1
vsSAM
SAML 58-78
−18.5
3
vsUTC
UTCW 79-71
+0.5
7
@ETSU
ETSUL 67-81
+1.5
10
@FUR
FURL 48-69
−32.5
15
vsMER
MERL 67-77
−9.5
17
vsCIT
CITL 68-82
+6.5
21
vsUNCG
UNCGL 78-85
+11.5
24
@WCU
WCUL 58-88
−6.5
29
@CIT
CITL 56-80
−6.5
31
@MER
MERL 81-95
+22.5
4
vsWOF
WOFL 67-81
−1.5
7
vsETSU
ETSUL 70-87
+13.5
11
@UNCG
UNCGL 71-92
+12.5
14
vsFUR
FURL 72-90
+13.5
18
@WOF
WOFL 76-82
−0.5
21
vsWCU
WCUL 62-81
−11.5
26
@SAM
SAML 61-80
−14.5
28
@UTC
UTCL 79-86
+10.5
over 13under 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
UNC Greensboro
29 games played
Straight up
11-18
38% wins
Against the spread
11-18
38% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
21-8
72% overs · avg +8.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @ KSU | L 64-93 | +18.5 | L −10.5 | 148.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 8 | vs ELON | L 90-92 | -4.5 | L −6.5 | 142.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 12 | @ NCSU | L 64-110 | +30.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 15 | vs APSU | L 63-69 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 20 | @ QUC | L 94-101 | +7.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 23 | vs YSU | W 68-62 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 25 | vs DEL | L 60-73 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 142.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs M-OH | L 71-82 | +10.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNCA | L 77-82 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ ECU | W 82-78 | +7.5 | W +11.5 | 139.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 16 | vs NCAT | L 65-71 | -6.5 | L −12.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 1 | vsUTC | W 77-72 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 3 | vsSAM | W 89-82 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 7 | @WOF | L 85-97 | +7.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 10 | @ETSU | L 60-86 | +11.5 | L −14.5 | 148.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 15 | vsCIT | W 69-66 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 17 | vsMER | L 92-102 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | O 194 |
| Jan 21 | @VMI | W 85-78 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 151.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 23 | vsFUR | L 66-89 | +4.5 | L −18.5 | 150.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 29 | @MER | L 77-95 | +10.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 31 | @CIT | L 66-71 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 4 | vsWCU | W 81-78 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | O 159 |
| Feb 8 | @FUR | W 67-64 | +10.5 | W +13.5 | 149.5 | U 131 |
| Feb 11 | vsVMI | W 92-71 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 14 | vsWOF | W 99-89 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 154.5 | O 188 |
| Feb 18 | @WCU | L 77-91 | +5.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 21 | vsETSU | L 75-87 | +6.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 26 | @UTC | W 85-80 | +4.5 | W +9.5 | 157.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 28 | @SAM | L 78-87 | +8.5 | L −0.5 | 156.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@KSU
KSUL 64-93
−10.5
8
vsELON
ELONL 90-92
−6.5
12
@NCSU
NCSUL 64-110
−15.5
15
vsAPSU
APSUL 63-69
−7.5
20
@QUC
QUCL 94-101
+0.5
23
vsYSU
YSUW 68-62
+11.5
25
vsDEL
DELL 60-73
−14.5
26
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-82
−0.5
2
vsUNCA
UNCAL 77-82
−0.5
6
@ECU
ECUW 82-78
+11.5
16
vsNCAT
NCATL 65-71
−12.5
1
vsUTC
UTCW 77-72
+7.5
3
vsSAM
SAMW 89-82
+9.5
7
@WOF
WOFL 85-97
−4.5
10
@ETSU
ETSUL 60-86
−14.5
15
vsCIT
CITW 69-66
−6.5
17
vsMER
MERL 92-102
−4.5
21
@VMI
VMIW 85-78
+4.5
23
vsFUR
FURL 66-89
−18.5
29
@MER
MERL 77-95
−7.5
31
@CIT
CITL 66-71
−7.5
4
vsWCU
WCUW 81-78
+4.5
8
@FUR
FURW 67-64
+13.5
11
vsVMI
VMIW 92-71
+12.5
14
vsWOF
WOFW 99-89
+12.5
18
@WCU
WCUL 77-91
−8.5
21
vsETSU
ETSUL 75-87
−5.5
26
@UTC
UTCW 85-80
+9.5
28
@SAM
SAML 78-87
−0.5
covered 11didn’t cover 18avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@KSU
KSUL 64-93
+8.5
8
vsELON
ELONL 90-92
+39.5
12
@NCSU
NCSUL 64-110
+20.5
15
vsAPSU
APSUL 63-69
−13.5
20
@QUC
QUCL 94-101
+44.5
23
vsYSU
YSUW 68-62
−22.5
25
vsDEL
DELL 60-73
−9.5
26
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-82
+2.5
2
vsUNCA
UNCAL 77-82
+15.5
6
@ECU
ECUW 82-78
+20.5
16
vsNCAT
NCATL 65-71
−11.5
1
vsUTC
UTCW 77-72
+1.5
3
vsSAM
SAMW 89-82
+19.5
7
@WOF
WOFL 85-97
+28.5
10
@ETSU
ETSUL 60-86
−2.5
15
vsCIT
CITW 69-66
−13.5
17
vsMER
MERL 92-102
+38.5
21
@VMI
VMIW 85-78
+11.5
23
vsFUR
FURL 66-89
+4.5
29
@MER
MERL 77-95
+13.5
31
@CIT
CITL 66-71
−10.5
4
vsWCU
WCUW 81-78
+3.5
8
@FUR
FURW 67-64
−18.5
11
vsVMI
VMIW 92-71
+12.5
14
vsWOF
WOFW 99-89
+33.5
18
@WCU
WCUL 77-91
+12.5
21
vsETSU
ETSUL 75-87
+13.5
26
@UTC
UTCW 85-80
+7.5
28
@SAM
SAML 78-87
+8.5
over 21under 8avg +8.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
VMI
3-25 overall · 1-17 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Chattanooga79–86
- L@ Samford61–80
- Lvs W Carolina62–81
- L@ Wofford76–82
- Lvs Furman72–90
6 days since their last game.
UNC Greensboro
11-18 overall · 9-9 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Samford78–87
- W@ Chattanooga85–80
- Lvs ETSU75–87
- L@ W Carolina77–91
- Wvs Wofford99–89
6 days since their last game.