University Credit Union Pavilion · at Saint Mary's · Conference game
Closing line
GONZ -2.5✓ SMC covered by 13.5
GONZ -2.5✓ SMC covered by 13.5Closing total143.5Under by 14.5
| GONZ | This season | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| 28-2 | Record | 25-4 |
| 17-13 | ATS | 18-11 |
| 11-19 | O/U | 14-15 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: GONZ 76–70 SMC · ✗ GONZ (68%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GONZ | 36 | 23 | 59 |
| SMC | 29 | 41 | 70 |
1st half: GONZ 36, SMC 29 (GONZ by 7). The model had GONZ by 3.3 and a total of 68.4 (actual 65).
Team stats
| GONZ | SMC | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-56 39% | Field goals | 23-66 35% |
| 5-17 29% | 3-pointers | 16-33 48% |
| 10-12 83% | Free throws | 8-11 73% |
| 37 7 off | Rebounds | 42 15 off |
| 13 | Assists | 15 |
| 1 | Steals | 5 |
| 4 | Blocks | 4 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 14 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| GONZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Innocenti G | 37 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Graham Ike F | 35 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 7-14 | 2-5 |
| Adam Miller G | 30 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5-13 | 1-5 |
| Tyon Grant-Foster G | 28 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Mario Saint-Supery G | 20 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Davis Fogle G | 27 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 4-9 | 1-3 |
| Braeden Smith G | 20 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ismaila Diagne C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Alonzo Metz, Parker Jefferson, Noah Haaland, Cade Orness, Joaquim ArauzMoore, Braden Huff, Jalen Warley, Steele Venters
| SMC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dent G | 40 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 5-12 | 4-6 |
| Mikey Lewis G | 37 | 31 | 5 | 4 | 10-21 | 7-13 |
| Dillan Shaw G | 36 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 0-6 | 0-4 |
| Paulius Murauskas F | 31 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 2-10 | 1-4 |
| Harry Wessels C | 27 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Andrew McKeever C | 12 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-0 |
| Mantas Juzenas G | 10 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Rory Hawke G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Liam Campbell G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tony Duckett, Oliver Faubert, Trent MacLean, Kevin Gad, Cade Bennett, Jazz Gardner
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketGONZ -2.5
ModelGONZ -5.3
Model edgeGONZ +2.8
L SMC covered
Total
Market143.5
Model146.1
Model edgeOver 2.6
L Under
Projected score
GONZ 75.7 · SMC 70.4
GONZ 59 · SMC 70
Win probability
GONZ 68%
1st half
Spread
GONZ -3.3
GONZ -7.0
Total
68.4
65 points
Projected score
GONZ 35.8 · SMC 32.5
GONZ 36 · SMC 29
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenGONZ -1.5
1 → GONZ
CloseGONZ -2.5
1 pt toward GONZ
Total
Open143.5
no move
Close143.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
GONZ -135 · SMC +114
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened GONZ -1.5 · closed GONZ -2.5 · moved 1 toward GONZmodel GONZ -5.5
model GONZ -5.5
Opened 143.5 · unchangedmodel 146
model 146
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GONZ | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
| SMC | 9-1 90% | 8-2 80% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 13 since 2021-22
GONZ 7–6 SMCGONZ leads · 13 games since 2021-22 · GONZ has won the last 2 meetings · GONZ 5-7-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2025-26 | SMC 65 @ GONZ 73 | GONZ -8.5 | SMC W |
| Mar 11, 2024-25 | GONZ 58 vs SMC 51 | SMC +3.5 | GONZ W |
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | SMC 74 @ GONZ 67 | GONZ -6.5 | SMC W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | GONZ 58 @ SMC 62 | SMC +2.5 | SMC W |
| Mar 12, 2023-24 | GONZ 60 vs SMC 69 | SMC +3.5 | SMC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Gonzaga
30 games played
Straight up
28-2
93% wins
Against the spread
17-13
57% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-19
37% overs · avg −3.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs TXSO | W 98-43 | -29.5 | W +25.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 8 | vs OU | W 83-68 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 166.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 11 | vs CREI | W 90-63 | -12.5 | W +14.5 | 164.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 14 | @ ASU | W 77-65 | -13.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 17 | vs SUU | W 122-50 | -35.5 | W +36.5 | 160.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 24 | vs ALA | W 95-85 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 178.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs MD | W 100-61 | -14.5 | W +24.5 | 157.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 26 | vs MICH | L 61-101 | -3.5 | L −43.5 | 165.5 | U 162 |
| Dec 5 | vs UK | W 94-59 | -5.5 | W +29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 7 | vs UNF | W 109-58 | -42.5 | W +8.5 | 166.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 13 | vs UCLA | W 82-72 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 17 | vs CAM | W 98-70 | -36.5 | L −8.5 | 160.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 21 | vs ORE | W 91-82 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 155.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 28 | @ PEPP | W 96-56 | -29.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 30 | @ USD | W 99-93 | -29.5 | L −23.5 | 160.5 | O 192 |
| Jan 2 | vs SEA | W 80-72 | -24.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 4 | vs LMU | W 82-47 | -25.5 | W +9.5 | 154.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 8 | vs SCU | W 89-77 | -17.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 15 | @ WSU | W 86-65 | -16.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 17 | @SEA | W 71-50 | -9.5 | W +11.5 | 150.5 | U 121 |
| Jan 21 | vsPEPP | W 84-60 | -28.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 24 | vs SF | W 68-66 | -15.5 | L −13.5 | 149.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 31 | vsSMC | W 73-65 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 4 | @ PORT | L 80-87 | -22.5 | L −29.5 | 152.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 7 | @ ORST | W 81-61 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 10 | vsWSU | W 83-53 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 14 | @SCU | W 94-86 | -4.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 18 | @SF | W 80-59 | -15.5 | W +5.5 | 151.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 21 | vs PAC | W 71-62 | -22.5 | L −13.5 | 144.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 25 | vsPORT | W 89-48 | -26.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsTXSO
TXSOW 98-43
+25.5
8
vsOU
OUW 83-68
+4.5
11
vsCREI
CREIW 90-63
+14.5
14
@ASU
ASUW 77-65
−1.5
17
vsSUU
SUUW 122-50
+36.5
24
vsALA
ALAW 95-85
+5.5
25
vsMD
MDW 100-61
+24.5
26
vsMICH
MICHL 61-101
−43.5
5
vsUK
UKW 94-59
+29.5
7
vsUNF
UNFW 109-58
+8.5
13
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-72
−0.5
17
vsCAM
CAMW 98-70
−8.5
21
vsORE
OREW 91-82
−3.5
28
@PEPP
PEPPW 96-56
+10.5
30
@USD
USDW 99-93
−23.5
2
vsSEA
SEAW 80-72
−16.5
4
vsLMU
LMUW 82-47
+9.5
8
vsSCU
SCUW 89-77
−5.5
15
@WSU
WSUW 86-65
+4.5
17
@SEA
SEAW 71-50
+11.5
21
vsPEPP
PEPPW 84-60
−4.5
24
vsSF
SFW 68-66
−13.5
31
vsSMC
SMCW 73-65
−0.5
4
@PORT
PORTL 80-87
−29.5
7
@ORST
ORSTW 81-61
+0.5
10
vsWSU
WSUW 83-53
+8.5
14
@SCU
SCUW 94-86
+3.5
18
@SF
SFW 80-59
+5.5
21
vsPAC
PACW 71-62
−13.5
25
vsPORT
PORTW 89-48
+14.5
covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTXSO
TXSOW 98-43
−16.5
8
vsOU
OUW 83-68
−15.5
11
vsCREI
CREIW 90-63
−11.5
14
@ASU
ASUW 77-65
−16.5
17
vsSUU
SUUW 122-50
+11.5
24
vsALA
ALAW 95-85
+1.5
25
vsMD
MDW 100-61
+3.5
26
vsMICH
MICHL 61-101
−3.5
5
vsUK
UKW 94-59
−6.5
7
vsUNF
UNFW 109-58
+0.5
13
vsUCLA
UCLAW 82-72
+6.5
17
vsCAM
CAMW 98-70
+7.5
21
vsORE
OREW 91-82
+17.5
28
@PEPP
PEPPW 96-56
−0.5
30
@USD
USDW 99-93
+31.5
2
vsSEA
SEAW 80-72
−3.5
4
vsLMU
LMUW 82-47
−25.5
8
vsSCU
SCUW 89-77
+2.5
15
@WSU
WSUW 86-65
−4.5
17
@SEA
SEAW 71-50
−29.5
21
vsPEPP
PEPPW 84-60
−6.5
24
vsSF
SFW 68-66
−15.5
31
vsSMC
SMCW 73-65
−6.5
4
@PORT
PORTL 80-87
+14.5
7
@ORST
ORSTW 81-61
−7.5
10
vsWSU
WSUW 83-53
−20.5
14
@SCU
SCUW 94-86
+21.5
18
@SF
SFW 80-59
−12.5
21
vsPAC
PACW 71-62
−11.5
25
vsPORT
PORTW 89-48
−13.5
over 11under 19avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Saint Mary's
29 games played
Straight up
25-4
86% wins
Against the spread
18-11
62% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-15
48% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs STMN | W 84-58 | -13.5 | W +12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 7 | vs UTC | W 87-66 | -15.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 11 | vs OHIO | W 90-60 | -17.5 | W +12.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 14 | vs UNT | W 80-49 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 128.5 | O 129 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARST | W 85-72 | -20.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 26 | vs WICH | W 70-65 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 139.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 27 | vs VT | W 77-66 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 28 | vs VAN | L 71-96 | +4.5 | L −20.5 | 149.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 7 | @ DAV | W 70-61 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 137.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 14 | vs BOIS | L 67-68 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 139.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 19 | vs FAU | W 88-75 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs UNI | W 63-58 | -11.5 | L −6.5 | 132.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 28 | @LMU | W 78-73 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 30 | @PEPP | W 72-45 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 2 | vsPORT | W 78-57 | -18.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 4 | vsSEA | W 93-76 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 10 | vsWSU | W 88-82 | -15.5 | L −9.5 | 143.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 13 | @SF | W 82-68 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @SCU | L 54-62 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 116 |
| Jan 21 | vsORST | W 81-51 | -19.5 | W +10.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 24 | @PORT | W 75-69 | -14.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 31 | @GONZ | L 65-73 | +8.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 4 | vsUSD | W 87-60 | -20.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 7 | vsSF | W 79-54 | -11.5 | W +13.5 | 142.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 11 | vsPEPP | W 88-60 | -24.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 148 |
| Feb 14 | @PAC | W 72-61 | -7.5 | W +3.5 | 135.5 | U 133 |
| Feb 18 | @SEA | W 72-70 | -9.5 | L −7.5 | 133.5 | O 142 |
| Feb 21 | @WSU | W 83-67 | -8.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 25 | vsSCU | W 86-67 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 153.5 | U 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 84-58
+12.5
7
vsUTC
UTCW 87-66
+5.5
11
vsOHIO
OHIOW 90-60
+12.5
14
vsUNT
UNTW 80-49
+16.5
19
vsARST
ARSTW 85-72
−7.5
26
vsWICH
WICHW 70-65
−4.5
27
vsVT
VTW 77-66
+5.5
28
vsVAN
VANL 71-96
−20.5
7
@DAV
DAVW 70-61
+0.5
14
vsBOIS
BOISL 67-68
−3.5
19
vsFAU
FAUW 88-75
−0.5
22
vsUNI
UNIW 63-58
−6.5
28
@LMU
LMUW 78-73
−4.5
30
@PEPP
PEPPW 72-45
+7.5
2
vsPORT
PORTW 78-57
+2.5
4
vsSEA
SEAW 93-76
+5.5
10
vsWSU
WSUW 88-82
−9.5
13
@SF
SFW 82-68
+8.5
17
@SCU
SCUL 54-62
−6.5
21
vsORST
ORSTW 81-51
+10.5
24
@PORT
PORTW 75-69
−8.5
31
@GONZ
GONZL 65-73
+0.5
4
vsUSD
USDW 87-60
+6.5
7
vsSF
SFW 79-54
+13.5
11
vsPEPP
PEPPW 88-60
+3.5
14
@PAC
PACW 72-61
+3.5
18
@SEA
SEAW 72-70
−7.5
21
@WSU
WSUW 83-67
+7.5
25
vsSCU
SCUW 86-67
+13.5
covered 18didn’t cover 11avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 84-58
+0.5
7
vsUTC
UTCW 87-66
+7.5
11
vsOHIO
OHIOW 90-60
+5.5
14
vsUNT
UNTW 80-49
+0.5
19
vsARST
ARSTW 85-72
+7.5
26
vsWICH
WICHW 70-65
−4.5
27
vsVT
VTW 77-66
−1.5
28
vsVAN
VANL 71-96
+17.5
7
@DAV
DAVW 70-61
−6.5
14
vsBOIS
BOISL 67-68
−4.5
19
vsFAU
FAUW 88-75
+17.5
22
vsUNI
UNIW 63-58
−11.5
28
@LMU
LMUW 78-73
+7.5
30
@PEPP
PEPPW 72-45
−24.5
2
vsPORT
PORTW 78-57
−11.5
4
vsSEA
SEAW 93-76
+29.5
10
vsWSU
WSUW 88-82
+26.5
13
@SF
SFW 82-68
+8.5
17
@SCU
SCUL 54-62
−36.5
21
vsORST
ORSTW 81-51
−10.5
24
@PORT
PORTW 75-69
−0.5
31
@GONZ
GONZL 65-73
−6.5
4
vsUSD
USDW 87-60
−1.5
7
vsSF
SFW 79-54
−9.5
11
vsPEPP
PEPPW 88-60
+3.5
14
@PAC
PACW 72-61
−2.5
18
@SEA
SEAW 72-70
+8.5
21
@WSU
WSUW 83-67
+0.5
25
vsSCU
SCUW 86-67
−0.5
over 14under 15avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Gonzaga
28-2 overall · 16-1 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Portland89–48
- Wvs Pacific71–62
- W@ San Francisco80–59
- W@ Santa Clara94–86
- Wvs Washington St83–53
3 days since their last game.
Saint Mary's
25-4 overall · 15-2 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Santa Clara86–67
- W@ Washington St83–67
- W@ Seattle U72–70
- W@ Pacific72–61
- Wvs Pepperdine88–60
3 days since their last game.