Fifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati · Conference game
Closing line
ISU -5.5✓ CIN covered by 14.5
ISU -5.5✓ CIN covered by 14.5Closing total141.5Over by 7.5
| ISU | This season | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16-1 | Record | 9-8 |
| 9-8 | ATS | 7-10 |
| 8-9 | O/U | 4-13 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ISU 75–67 CIN · ✗ ISU (76%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISU | 31 | 39 | 70 |
| CIN | 35 | 44 | 79 |
1st half: ISU 31, CIN 35 (CIN by 4). The model had ISU by 4.9 and a total of 66.3 (actual 66).
Team stats
| ISU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-51 43% | Field goals | 30-69 43% |
| 9-21 43% | 3-pointers | 10-34 29% |
| 17-27 63% | Free throws | 9-12 75% |
| 32 11 off | Rebounds | 39 15 off |
| 11 | Assists | 15 |
| 4 | Steals | 8 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| ISU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Jefferson F | 35 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 4-12 | 0-1 |
| Milan Momcilovic F | 34 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 9-18 | 8-14 |
| Tamin Lipsey G | 33 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Blake Buchanan F | 26 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Killyan Toure G | 23 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nate Heise G | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Dominick Nelson G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Dominykas Pleta F | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jamarion Batemon G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Anthony Rise, Mason Williams, Cade Kelderman, Eric Mulder, Xzavion Mitchell
| CIN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baba Miller F | 34 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Jizzle James G | 30 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 6-12 | 1-3 |
| Day Day Thomas G | 26 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 8-18 | 3-10 |
| Moustapha Thiam C | 22 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Sencire Harris G | 20 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Celestine G | 26 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 4-10 | 4-10 |
| Keyshuan Tillery G | 19 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Tyler McKinley F | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Shon Abaev F | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Bryson Buckingham, Lucas Atauri, Jordi Rodriguez-Stegemeijer, Halvine Dzellat, Grant Darbyshire, Jalen Haynes, Kerr Kriisa
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketISU -5.5
ModelISU -8.0
Model edgeISU +2.5
L CIN covered
Total
Market141.5
Model141.5
Model edge—
Over
Projected score
ISU 74.7 · CIN 66.7
ISU 70 · CIN 79
Win probability
ISU 76%
1st half
Spread
ISU -4.9
CIN -4.0
Total
66.3
66 points
Projected score
ISU 35.6 · CIN 30.7
ISU 31 · CIN 35
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenISU -6.5
1 → CIN
CloseISU -5.5
1 pt toward CIN
Total
Open138.5
▲ 3
Close141.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
ISU -245 · CIN +200
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ISU -6.5 · closed ISU -5.5 · moved 1 toward CINmodel ISU -8
model ISU -8
Opened 138.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 3 upmodel 141.5 matches the line
model 141.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISU | 9-1 90% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
| CIN | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
ISU 3–0 CINISU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · ISU has won the last 3 meetings · ISU 2-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024-25 | CIN 56 vs ISU 76 | ISU -8.5 | ISU W |
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | CIN 70 @ ISU 81 | ISU -11.5 | CIN W |
| Feb 13, 2023-24 | ISU 68 @ CIN 59 | CIN -1.5 | ISU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Iowa State
17 games played
Straight up
16-1
94% wins
Against the spread
9-8
53% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-9
47% overs · avg +0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FDU | W 88-50 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 6 | vs GRAM | W 102-62 | -33.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 10 | vs MSST | W 96-80 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 17 | vs STO | W 96-57 | -40.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 24 | vs SJU | W 83-82 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 25 | vs CREI | W 78-60 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 26 | vs SYR | W 95-64 | -10.5 | W +20.5 | 145.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 3 | vs ALCN | W 132-68 | -42.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | O 200 |
| Dec 6 | @ PUR | W 81-58 | +4.5 | W +27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 11 | vs IOWA | W 66-62 | -11.5 | L −7.5 | 141.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 14 | vs EIU | W 78-53 | -43.5 | L −18.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 21 | vs LBSU | W 91-60 | -37.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 29 | vs HCU | W 89-61 | -35.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 2 | vs WVU | W 80-59 | -16.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 7 | @ BAY | W 70-60 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | vs OKST | W 83-71 | -19.5 | L −7.5 | 165.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 13 | @ KU | L 63-84 | -3.5 | L −24.5 | 152.5 | U 147 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFDU
FDUW 88-50
+0.5
6
vsGRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+6.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 96-80
+10.5
17
vsSTO
STOW 96-57
−1.5
24
vsSJU
SJUW 83-82
−1.5
25
vsCREI
CREIW 78-60
+8.5
26
vsSYR
SYRW 95-64
+20.5
3
vsALCN
ALCNW 132-68
+21.5
6
@PUR
PURW 81-58
+27.5
11
vsIOWA
IOWAW 66-62
−7.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 78-53
−18.5
21
vsLBSU
LBSUW 91-60
−6.5
29
vsHCU
HCUW 89-61
−7.5
2
vsWVU
WVUW 80-59
+4.5
7
@BAY
BAYW 70-60
+6.5
10
vsOKST
OKSTW 83-71
−7.5
13
@KU
KUL 63-84
−24.5
covered 9didn’t cover 8avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFDU
FDUW 88-50
−9.5
6
vsGRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+19.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 96-80
+25.5
17
vsSTO
STOW 96-57
+6.5
24
vsSJU
SJUW 83-82
+6.5
25
vsCREI
CREIW 78-60
−14.5
26
vsSYR
SYRW 95-64
+13.5
3
vsALCN
ALCNW 132-68
+48.5
6
@PUR
PURW 81-58
−15.5
11
vsIOWA
IOWAW 66-62
−13.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 78-53
−13.5
21
vsLBSU
LBSUW 91-60
+1.5
29
vsHCU
HCUW 89-61
+4.5
2
vsWVU
WVUW 80-59
−3.5
7
@BAY
BAYW 70-60
−25.5
10
vsOKST
OKSTW 83-71
−11.5
13
@KU
KUL 63-84
−5.5
over 8under 9avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cincinnati
17 games played
Straight up
9-8
53% wins
Against the spread
7-10
41% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-13
24% overs · avg −6.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs WCU | W 94-63 | -22.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 7 | vs GAST | W 74-64 | -29.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 11 | vs DAY | W 74-62 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | vs MSM | W 72-55 | -25.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | vs LOU | L 64-74 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs NJIT | W 94-67 | -34.5 | L −7.5 | 141.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 26 | vs EMU | L 56-64 | -22.5 | L −30.5 | 146.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 1 | vs TAR | W 76-58 | -24.5 | L −6.5 | 142.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 5 | @ XAV | L 74-79 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 13 | vs UGA | L 65-84 | +5.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 17 | vs ALST | W 88-51 | -21.5 | W +15.5 | 145.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | vs CLEM | L 65-68 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 29 | vs LIP | W 89-62 | -13.5 | W +13.5 | 150.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 3 | vs HOU | L 60-67 | +4.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 6 | @WVU | L 60-62 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 11 | @ UCF | L 72-73 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 14 | vs COLO | W 77-68 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWCU
WCUW 94-63
+8.5
7
vsGAST
GASTW 74-64
−19.5
11
vsDAY
DAYW 74-62
+6.5
16
vsMSM
MSMW 72-55
−8.5
21
vsLOU
LOUL 64-74
−1.5
24
vsNJIT
NJITW 94-67
−7.5
26
vsEMU
EMUL 56-64
−30.5
1
vsTAR
TARW 76-58
−6.5
5
@XAV
XAVL 74-79
−6.5
13
vsUGA
UGAL 65-84
−13.5
17
vsALST
ALSTW 88-51
+15.5
21
vsCLEM
CLEML 65-68
+0.5
29
vsLIP
LIPW 89-62
+13.5
3
vsHOU
HOUL 60-67
−2.5
6
@WVU
WVUL 60-62
−3.5
11
@UCF
UCFL 72-73
+1.5
14
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
+0.5
covered 7didn’t cover 10avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWCU
WCUW 94-63
+13.5
7
vsGAST
GASTW 74-64
−13.5
11
vsDAY
DAYW 74-62
−11.5
16
vsMSM
MSMW 72-55
−18.5
21
vsLOU
LOUL 64-74
−25.5
24
vsNJIT
NJITW 94-67
+19.5
26
vsEMU
EMUL 56-64
−26.5
1
vsTAR
TARW 76-58
−8.5
5
@XAV
XAVL 74-79
+5.5
13
vsUGA
UGAL 65-84
−8.5
17
vsALST
ALSTW 88-51
−6.5
21
vsCLEM
CLEML 65-68
−7.5
29
vsLIP
LIPW 89-62
+0.5
3
vsHOU
HOUL 60-67
−8.5
6
@WVU
WVUL 60-62
−10.5
11
@UCF
UCFL 72-73
−5.5
14
vsCOLO
COLOW 77-68
−0.5
over 4under 13avg −6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Iowa State
16-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Kansas63–84
- Wvs Oklahoma St83–71
- W@ Baylor70–60
- Wvs West Virginia80–59
- Wvs Hou Christian89–61
4 days since their last game.
Cincinnati
9-8 overall · 1-3 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Colorado77–68
- L@ UCF72–73
- L@ West Virginia60–62
- Lvs Houston60–67
- Wvs Lipscomb89–62
3 days since their last game.