Mackey Arena · at Purdue · Conference game
Closing line
PUR -5.5✓ ILL covered by 11.5
PUR -5.5✓ ILL covered by 11.5Closing total152.5Over by 17.5
 ILL | This season | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| 16-3 | Record | 17-2 |
| 12-7 | ATS | 9-10 |
| 7-12 | O/U | 7-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ILL 74–79 PUR · ✗ PUR (66%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 39 | 49 | 88 |
| PUR | 43 | 39 | 82 |
1st half: ILL 39, PUR 43 (PUR by 4). The model had PUR by 2.8 and a total of 72.0 (actual 82).
Team stats
| ILL | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-56 48% | Field goals | 33-58 57% |
| 18-38 47% | 3-pointers | 7-19 37% |
| 16-22 73% | Free throws | 9-11 82% |
| 33 13 off | Rebounds | 19 3 off |
| 10 | Assists | 19 |
| 0 | Steals | 2 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 14 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 39 | 46 | 0 | 4 | 13-17 | 9-11 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 37 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2-9 | 0-3 |
| Jake Davis F | 30 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-7 |
| David Mirkovic F | 28 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 24 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Ben Humrichous F | 20 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Brandon Lee G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Mihailo Petrovic G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Blake Fagbemi, Kylan Boswell, Jason Jakstys, AJ Redd, Ty Rodgers
| PUR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Smith G | 37 | 27 | 3 | 12 | 11-16 | 2-3 |
| Oscar Cluff C | 29 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| C.J. Cox G | 27 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-3 |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn F | 26 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Fletcher Loyer G | 20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Omer Mayer G | 21 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4-8 | 3-6 |
| Jack Benter G | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Gicarri Harris G | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Daniel Jacobsen C | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jack Lusk, Aaron Fine, Jace Rayl, Antione West Jr, Sam King, Raleigh Burgess, Liam Murphy
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPUR -5.5
ModelPUR -4.8
Model edgeILL +0.7
W ILL covered
Total
Market152.5
Model153.7
Model edgeOver 1.2
W Over
Projected score
ILL 74.4 · PUR 79.3
ILL 88 · PUR 82
Win probability
PUR 66%
1st half
Spread
PUR -2.8
PUR -4.0
Total
72.0
82 points
Projected score
ILL 34.6 · PUR 37.4
ILL 39 · PUR 43
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPUR -2.5
3 → PUR
ClosePUR -5.5
3 pts toward PUR
Total
Open150.5
▲ 2
Close152.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
ILL +220 · PUR -270
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PUR -2.5 · closed PUR -5.5 · moved 3 toward PURmodel PUR -5
model PUR -5
Opened 150.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 2 upmodel 153.5
model 153.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| PUR | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
ILL 1–5 PURPUR leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · ILL 3-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024-25 | PUR 80 @ ILL 88 | ILL -4.5 | ILL W |
| Mar 5, 2023-24 | PUR 77 @ ILL 71 | ILL -2.5 | PUR W |
| Jan 5, 2023-24 | ILL 78 @ PUR 83 | PUR -10.5 | ILL W |
| Mar 5, 2022-23 | ILL 71 @ PUR 76 | PUR -6.5 | ILL W |
| Feb 8, 2021-22 | ILL 68 @ PUR 84 | PUR -5.5 | PUR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Illinois
19 games played
Straight up
16-3
84% wins
Against the spread
12-7
63% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-12
37% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs NEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vs RUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @ IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @ NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vs MINN | W 77-67 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 21 | vs MD | W 89-70 | -18.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−5.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+0.5
covered 12didn’t cover 7avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
+1.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+6.5
over 7under 12avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Purdue
19 games played
Straight up
17-2
89% wins
Against the spread
9-10
47% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-12
37% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EVAN | W 82-51 | -33.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vs OAK | W 87-77 | -31.5 | L −21.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 13 | @ALA | W 87-80 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 16 | vs AKR | W 97-79 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 20 | vs MEM | W 80-71 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 21 | vsTTU | W 86-56 | -3.5 | W +26.5 | 153.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 28 | vs EIU | W 109-62 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 2 | @RUTG | W 81-65 | -13.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | vs ISU | L 58-81 | -4.5 | L −27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 10 | vsMINN | W 85-57 | -19.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs MARQ | W 79-59 | -16.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs AUB | W 88-60 | -7.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs KENT | W 101-60 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 155.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 3 | @ WIS | W 89-73 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 7 | vs WASH | W 81-73 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 10 | vsPSU | W 93-85 | -22.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 14 | vsIOWA | W 79-72 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 17 | @ USC | W 69-64 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 20 | @ UCLA | L 67-69 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−2.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
−21.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
+10.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
−0.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
+26.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+6.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
+2.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−27.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
+8.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
+3.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
+20.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+16.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+10.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−8.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
−14.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
−3.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−4.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−7.5
covered 9didn’t cover 10avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−17.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
+5.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
−5.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
+12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
−11.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+29.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
−0.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−15.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
−1.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
−16.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
−4.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+5.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+8.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−0.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
+25.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
+5.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−22.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−11.5
over 7under 12avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Illinois
16-3 overall · 7-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Maryland89–70
- Wvs Minnesota77–67
- W@ Northwestern79–68
- W@ Iowa75–69
- Wvs Rutgers81–55
3 days since their last game.
Purdue
17-2 overall · 7-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UCLA67–69
- W@ USC69–64
- Wvs Iowa79–72
- Wvs Penn State93–85
- Wvs Washington81–73
4 days since their last game.