Welsh-Ryan Arena · at Northwestern · Conference game
Closing line
ILL -9.5✓ ILL covered by 1.5
ILL -9.5✓ ILL covered by 1.5Closing total151.5Under by 4.5
| ILL | This season | NU |
|---|---|---|
| 13-3 | Record | 8-8 |
| 10-6 | ATS | 7-9 |
| 5-11 | O/U | 10-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ILL 82–73 NU · ✓ ILL (77%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 38 | 41 | 79 |
| NU | 33 | 35 | 68 |
1st half: ILL 38, NU 33 (ILL by 5). The model had ILL by 5.3 and a total of 72.4 (actual 71).
Team stats
| ILL | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-63 48% | Field goals | 22-56 39% |
| 11-30 37% | 3-pointers | 9-25 36% |
| 8-8 100% | Free throws | 15-17 88% |
| 33 14 off | Rebounds | 30 13 off |
| 11 | Assists | 12 |
| 6 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 18 |
| 3 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylan Boswell G | 37 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 6-11 | 0-2 |
| Keaton Wagler G | 33 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 8-17 | 3-7 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 26 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 8-15 | 4-10 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 23 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Ben Humrichous F | 15 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| David Mirkovic F | 29 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Jake Davis F | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Brandon Lee G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ty Rodgers, Mihailo Petrovic, Blake Fagbemi, AJ Redd, Jason Jakstys
| NU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinelli F | 37 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 5-12 | 2-4 |
| Tre Singleton F | 34 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3-11 | 0-4 |
| Arrinten Page F | 30 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Jake West G | 21 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Jordan Clayton G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayden Reid G | 32 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 9-15 | 4-6 |
| Angelo Ciaravino G | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Max Green G | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Tyler Kropp F | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: K.J. Windham, Phoenix Gill, Blake Smith, Gus Hurlburt, Cade Bennerman, Justin Mullins
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketILL -9.5
ModelILL -8.6
Model edgeNU +0.9
L ILL covered
Total
Market151.5
Model154.7
Model edgeOver 3.2
L Under
Projected score
ILL 81.7 · NU 73
ILL 79 · NU 68
Win probability
ILL 77%
1st half
Spread
ILL -5.3
ILL -5.0
Total
72.4
71 points
Projected score
ILL 38.9 · NU 33.6
ILL 38 · NU 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -8.5
1 → ILL
CloseILL -9.5
1 pt toward ILL
Total
Open151.5
no move
Close151.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
ILL -455 · NU +350
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -8.5 · closed ILL -9.5 · moved 1 toward ILLmodel ILL -8.5
model ILL -8.5
Opened 151.5 · unchangedmodel 154.5
model 154.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| NU | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
ILL 5–3 NUILL leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · ILL 2-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2024-25 | NU 74 @ ILL 83 | ILL -7.5 | ILL W |
| Dec 6, 2024-25 | ILL 66 @ NU 70 | NU +3.5 | NU W |
| Jan 24, 2023-24 | ILL 91 @ NU 96 | NU +4.5 | NU W |
| Jan 2, 2023-24 | NU 66 @ ILL 96 | ILL -5.5 | ILL W |
| Feb 23, 2022-23 | NU 62 @ ILL 66 | ILL -7.5 | NU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Illinois
16 games played
Straight up
13-3
81% wins
Against the spread
10-6
63% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-11
31% overs · avg −5.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs NEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vs RUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @ IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
covered 10didn’t cover 6avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
over 5under 11avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Northwestern
16 games played
Straight up
8-8
50% wins
Against the spread
7-9
44% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-6
63% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MERC | W 70-47 | -26.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | U 117 |
| Nov 7 | vs BU | W 76-52 | -17.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 10 | vs CLE | W 110-63 | -23.5 | W +23.5 | 151.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 14 | @ DEP | W 81-79 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs UVA | L 78-83 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs SC | W 79-77 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 27 | vs OKST | L 81-86 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 3 | @ WIS | L 73-85 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 155.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 6 | vsOSU | L 82-86 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vsJKST | W 93-53 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 16 | vs VAL | W 86-70 | -14.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs BTLR | L 58-61 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | U 119 |
| Dec 30 | vs HOW | W 80-60 | -19.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 3 | vs MINN | L 78-84 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 8 | @ MSU | L 66-76 | +13.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 11 | @RUTG | L 75-77 | -4.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−3.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
+6.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+23.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
−3.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
−0.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
−2.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
−7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
−1.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
−2.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
+9.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+1.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
+0.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
+0.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
−10.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
+3.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
−6.5
covered 7didn’t cover 9avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMERC
MERCW 70-47
−23.5
7
vsBU
BUW 76-52
−8.5
10
vsCLE
CLEW 110-63
+21.5
14
@DEP
DEPW 81-79
+14.5
21
vsUVA
UVAL 78-83
+11.5
23
vsSC
SCW 79-77
+9.5
27
vsOKST
OKSTL 81-86
+7.5
3
@WIS
WISL 73-85
+2.5
6
vsOSU
OSUL 82-86
+12.5
13
vsJKST
JKSTW 93-53
−0.5
16
vsVAL
VALW 86-70
+10.5
20
vsBTLR
BTLRL 58-61
−35.5
30
vsHOW
HOWW 80-60
−8.5
3
vsMINN
MINNL 78-84
+23.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-76
−1.5
11
@RUTG
RUTGL 75-77
+7.5
over 10under 6avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Illinois
13-3 overall · 4-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Iowa75–69
- Wvs Rutgers81–55
- W@ Penn State73–65
- Wvs Southern90–55
- Wvs Missouri91–48
3 days since their last game.
Northwestern
8-8 overall · 0-5 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Rutgers75–77
- L@ Michigan St66–76
- Lvs Minnesota78–84
- Wvs Howard80–60
- Lvs Butler58–61
3 days since their last game.