Tucker Center · at Florida St · Conference game
Closing line
FSU -3.5✓ CAL covered by 1.5
FSU -3.5✓ CAL covered by 1.5Closing total157.5Under by 33.5
 CAL | This season | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| 14-5 | Record | 8-12 |
| 10-9 | ATS | 11-9 |
| 8-11 | O/U | 8-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CAL 78–79 FSU · ✓ FSU (54%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 23 | 38 | 61 |
| FSU | 36 | 27 | 63 |
1st half: CAL 23, FSU 36 (FSU by 13). The model had FSU by 0.6 and a total of 73.5 (actual 59).
Team stats
| CAL | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-58 34% | Field goals | 23-63 37% |
| 10-28 36% | 3-pointers | 6-28 21% |
| 11-15 73% | Free throws | 11-21 52% |
| 41 8 off | Rebounds | 42 12 off |
| 8 | Assists | 11 |
| 3 | Steals | 5 |
| 0 | Blocks | 3 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 14 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 3 |
Players
| CAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dai Dai Ames G | 35 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 5-15 | 1-5 |
| John Camden F | 33 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3-9 | 2-6 |
| Justin Pippen G | 31 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 5-13 | 4-9 |
| Milos Ilic C | 29 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Chris Bell F | 24 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 5-11 | 3-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| DeJuan Campbell G | 17 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Semetri Carr G | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Nolan Dorsey G | 8 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Mantas Kocanas C | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Rytis Petraitis, Jovani Ruff, Luke Butler, Jorell Clark, BJ Fisher, Sammie Yeanay, Stephon Marbury II, Lee Dort
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 31 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 7-9 | 3-4 |
| Lajae Jones G | 31 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 3-14 | 0-4 |
| Robert McCray V G | 25 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 5-10 | 0-3 |
| Alex Steen F | 21 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 21 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Martin Somerville G | 28 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-5 |
| AJ Swinton F | 23 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-4 |
| Kobe MaGee G | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Cam Miles G | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Jasen Lopez, Xavier Osceola, Max Garcia-Plata, Alier Maluk, Jalen Crawford, Shah Muhammad
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFSU -3.5
ModelFSU -1.2
Model edgeCAL +2.3
W CAL covered
Total
Market157.5
Model157.0
Model edgeUnder 0.5
W Under
Projected score
CAL 77.9 · FSU 79.1
CAL 61 · FSU 63
Win probability
FSU 54%
1st half
Spread
FSU -0.6
FSU -13.0
Total
73.5
59 points
Projected score
CAL 36.4 · FSU 37.1
CAL 23 · FSU 36
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFSU -1.5
2 → FSU
CloseFSU -3.5
2 pts toward FSU
Total
Open152.5
▲ 5
Close157.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
CAL +145 · FSU -175
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FSU -1.5 · closed FSU -3.5 · moved 2 toward FSUmodel FSU -1
model FSU -1
Opened 152.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 5 upmodel 157
model 157
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| FSU | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
CAL 1–0 FSUCAL leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CAL 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2024-25 | FSU 68 @ CAL 77 | CAL +3.5 | CAL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
California
19 games played
Straight up
14-5
74% wins
Against the spread
10-9
53% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-11
42% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CSUB | W 87-60 | -15.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 6 | vs WRST | W 77-67 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 10 | vs CSUF | W 93-65 | -22.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 13 | @ KSU | L 96-99 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 18 | vs PRES | W 67-57 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 124.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAC | W 91-67 | -21.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | +7.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTAH | W 79-72 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 6 | vs PAC | W 67-61 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs NWST | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 19 | vs MORG | W 97-50 | -26.5 | W +20.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLU | W 74-56 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 30 | vs LOU | L 70-90 | +7.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | vs ND | W 72-71 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 7 | @ UVA | L 60-84 | +14.5 | L −9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @ VT | L 75-78 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 14 | vs DUKE | L 56-71 | +14.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | vs UNC | W 84-78 | +7.5 | W +13.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 24 | @ STAN | W 78-66 | +4.5 | W +16.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
+11.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
+5.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+3.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+2.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+15.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−0.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−1.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
−10.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
+20.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
+9.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
−12.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
−2.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 60-84
−9.5
10
@VT
VTL 75-78
+2.5
14
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-71
−0.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 84-78
+13.5
24
@STAN
STANW 78-66
+16.5
covered 10didn’t cover 9avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
−0.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
−4.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+30.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+3.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+8.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−1.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−16.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
+3.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
−4.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
−23.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
+0.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
+4.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 60-84
−4.5
10
@VT
VTL 75-78
+4.5
14
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-71
−22.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 84-78
+10.5
24
@STAN
STANW 78-66
−2.5
over 8under 11avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida St
20 games played
Straight up
8-12
40% wins
Against the spread
11-9
55% covers · avg −4.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-12
40% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs ALCN | W 108-76 | -27.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | vs ALST | W 101-64 | -24.5 | W +12.5 | 166.5 | U 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ FLA | L 76-78 | +17.5 | W +15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs UTM | W 87-73 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 165.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 21 | vs GASO | W 98-72 | -18.5 | W +7.5 | 175.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vsCSUB | W 89-59 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs TA&M | L 59-95 | -1.5 | L −37.5 | 174.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 2 | vs UGA | L 73-107 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 176.5 | O 180 |
| Dec 6 | vs HOU | L 67-82 | +12.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 13 | vs MASS | L 95-103 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 16 | @ DAY | L 69-97 | +6.5 | L −21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 19 | vs MVSU | W 96-49 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 22 | vs JAX | W 87-63 | -23.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 30 | @UNC | L 66-79 | +12.5 | L −0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | vsDUKE | L 87-91 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 10 | vs NCSU | L 69-113 | +4.5 | L −39.5 | 160.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 13 | @ SYR | L 86-94 | +4.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 17 | vs WAKE | L 68-69 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 20 | @ MIA | W 65-63 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ SMU | L 80-83 | +11.5 | W +8.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
+15.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
+7.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
+3.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−37.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
−35.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
−2.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
−20.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
−21.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
+6.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
+0.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−0.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+12.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
−39.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
−3.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
+0.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
+12.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
+8.5
covered 11didn’t cover 9avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
11
@FLA
FLAL 76-78
−26.5
18
vsUTM
UTMW 87-73
−5.5
21
vsGASO
GASOW 98-72
−5.5
25
vsCSUB
CSUBW 89-59
−11.5
28
vsTA&M
TA&ML 59-95
−20.5
2
vsUGA
UGAL 73-107
+3.5
6
vsHOU
HOUL 67-82
+0.5
13
vsMASS
MASSL 95-103
+32.5
16
@DAY
DAYL 69-97
+3.5
19
vsMVSU
MVSUW 96-49
−19.5
22
vsJAX
JAXW 87-63
−9.5
30
@UNC
UNCL 66-79
−21.5
3
vsDUKE
DUKEL 87-91
+14.5
10
vsNCSU
NCSUL 69-113
+21.5
13
@SYR
SYRL 86-94
+19.5
17
vsWAKE
WAKEL 68-69
−31.5
20
@MIA
MIAW 65-63
−35.5
24
@SMU
SMUL 80-83
−0.5
over 8under 12avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
California
14-5 overall · 3-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Stanford78–66
- Wvs North Carolina84–78
- Lvs Duke56–71
- L@ Virginia Tech75–78
- L@ Virginia60–84
4 days since their last game.
Florida St
8-12 overall · 1-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ SMU80–83
- W@ Miami65–63
- Lvs Wake Forest68–69
- L@ Syracuse86–94
- Lvs NC State69–113
4 days since their last game.