JMA Wireless Dome · at Syracuse · Conference game
Closing line
MIA -1.5✓ MIA covered by 7.5
MIA -1.5✓ MIA covered by 7.5Closing total149.5Over by 11.5
| MIA | This season | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| 15-4 | Record | 12-7 |
| 10-9 | ATS | 9-10 |
| 12-7 | O/U | 9-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIA 77–75 SYR · ✓ MIA (59%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 41 | 44 | 85 |
| SYR | 36 | 40 | 76 |
1st half: MIA 41, SYR 36 (MIA by 5). The model had MIA by 1.7 and a total of 71.3 (actual 77).
Team stats
| MIA | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 33-54 61% | Field goals | 30-61 49% |
| 7-13 54% | 3-pointers | 6-21 29% |
| 12-15 80% | Free throws | 10-15 67% |
| 37 8 off | Rebounds | 21 5 off |
| 20 | Assists | 13 |
| 4 | Steals | 11 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 52 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelton Henderson F | 38 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 6-9 | 0-2 |
| Malik Reneau F | 34 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 8-12 | 1-2 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 31 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Tru Washington G | 29 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 6-13 | 1-2 |
| Dante Allen G | 18 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tre Donaldson G | 29 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 5-8 | 2-3 |
| Timo Malovec F | 14 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Noam Dovrat G | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
Did not play: JJ Laboy, Marcus Allen, Jordyn Kee, Treyvon Maddox
| SYR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donnie Freeman F | 32 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 7-11 | 0-2 |
| Naithan George G | 31 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4-11 | 2-6 |
| William Kyle III F | 29 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| J.J. Starling G | 27 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 3-10 | 0-3 |
| Nate Kingz G | 25 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4-7 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kiyan Anthony G | 21 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 5-8 | 2-4 |
| Tyler Betsey F | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Sadiq White Jr. F | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Akir Souare F | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Aaron Womack III, Calvin Russell III, Tiefing Diawara, Luke Fennell, Noah Lobdell, Bryce Zephir
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIA -1.5
ModelMIA -2.6
Model edgeMIA +1.1
W MIA covered
Total
Market149.5
Model152.3
Model edgeOver 2.8
W Over
Projected score
MIA 77.4 · SYR 74.8
MIA 85 · SYR 76
Win probability
MIA 59%
1st half
Spread
MIA -1.7
MIA -5.0
Total
71.3
77 points
Projected score
MIA 36.5 · SYR 34.8
MIA 41 · SYR 36
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -1.5
no move
CloseMIA -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open150.5
▼ 1
Close149.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
MIA -130 · SYR +110
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -1.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -2.5
model MIA -2.5
Opened 150.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 1 downmodel 152.5
model 152.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% |
| SYR | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MIA 4–1 SYRMIA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · MIA 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2024-25 | SYR 84 @ MIA 91 | MIA -2.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | MIA 69 @ SYR 72 | SYR -3.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 16, 2022-23 | SYR 78 @ MIA 82 | MIA -7.5 | SYR W |
| Mar 5, 2021-22 | MIA 75 @ SYR 72 | SYR -1.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 5, 2021-22 | SYR 87 @ MIA 88 | MIA -2 | SYR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Miami
19 games played
Straight up
15-4
79% wins
Against the spread
10-9
53% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-7
63% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 16 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -22.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNF | W 105-67 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 171.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 30 | vs PITT | W 76-69 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 7 | @ WAKE | W 81-77 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | vs GT | W 91-81 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 13 | @ ND | W 81-69 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ CLEM | L 59-69 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 20 | vs FSU | L 63-65 | -10.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−5.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
−2.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+5.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
−5.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−5.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−12.5
covered 10didn’t cover 9avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+17.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
+0.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+0.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
+15.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−15.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−35.5
over 12under 7avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Syracuse
19 games played
Straight up
12-7
63% wins
Against the spread
9-10
47% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-10
47% overs · avg −1.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BING | W 85-47 | -21.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vsDSU | W 83-43 | -26.5 | W +13.5 | 157.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 15 | vs DREX | W 80-50 | -11.5 | W +18.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 18 | vs MONM | W 78-73 | -21.5 | L −16.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 24 | vs HOU | L 74-78 | +14.5 | W +10.5 | 140.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs KU | L 60-71 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs ISU | L 64-95 | +10.5 | L −20.5 | 145.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 2 | vs TENN | W 62-60 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 11 | vs JOES | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 13 | vs HOF | L 69-70 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 139.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 17 | vs MERC | W 76-62 | -24.5 | L −10.5 | 131.5 | O 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs NE | W 91-83 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 22 | vs STO | W 77-48 | -22.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 31 | vsCLEM | L 61-64 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 6 | @GT | W 82-72 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 10 | @PITT | W 83-72 | +1.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 13 | vsFSU | W 94-86 | -4.5 | W +3.5 | 160.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 17 | @ BC | L 73-81 | -5.5 | L −13.5 | 141.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 21 | vs VT | L 74-76 | -3.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBING
BINGW 85-47
+16.5
8
vsDSU
DSUW 83-43
+13.5
15
vsDREX
DREXW 80-50
+18.5
18
vsMONM
MONMW 78-73
−16.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 74-78
+10.5
25
vsKU
KUL 60-71
−6.5
26
vsISU
ISUL 64-95
−20.5
2
vsTENN
TENNW 62-60
+9.5
11
vsJOES
JOESW 71-63
−3.5
13
vsHOF
HOFL 69-70
−10.5
17
vsMERC
MERCW 76-62
−10.5
20
vsNE
NEW 91-83
−6.5
22
vsSTO
STOW 77-48
+6.5
31
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-64
−1.5
6
@GT
GTW 82-72
+7.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 83-72
+12.5
13
vsFSU
FSUW 94-86
+3.5
17
@BC
BCL 73-81
−13.5
21
vsVT
VTL 74-76
−5.5
covered 9didn’t cover 10avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBING
BINGW 85-47
−21.5
8
vsDSU
DSUW 83-43
−31.5
15
vsDREX
DREXW 80-50
−13.5
18
vsMONM
MONMW 78-73
+5.5
24
vsHOU
HOUL 74-78
+11.5
25
vsKU
KUL 60-71
−13.5
26
vsISU
ISUL 64-95
+13.5
2
vsTENN
TENNW 62-60
−25.5
11
vsJOES
JOESW 71-63
−12.5
13
vsHOF
HOFL 69-70
−0.5
17
vsMERC
MERCW 76-62
+6.5
20
vsNE
NEW 91-83
+33.5
22
vsSTO
STOW 77-48
−15.5
31
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-64
−15.5
6
@GT
GTW 82-72
+7.5
10
@PITT
PITTW 83-72
+12.5
13
vsFSU
FSUW 94-86
+19.5
17
@BC
BCL 73-81
+12.5
21
vsVT
VTL 74-76
−2.5
over 9under 10avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Miami
15-4 overall · 4-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Florida St63–65
- L@ Clemson59–69
- W@ Notre Dame81–69
- Wvs Georgia Tech91–81
- W@ Wake Forest81–77
4 days since their last game.
Syracuse
12-7 overall · 3-3 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Virginia Tech74–76
- L@ Boston College73–81
- Wvs Florida St94–86
- W@ Pitt83–72
- W@ Georgia Tech82–72
3 days since their last game.