Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame · Conference game
Closing line
MIA -5.5✓ MIA covered by 6.5
MIA -5.5✓ MIA covered by 6.5Closing total143.5Over by 6.5
| MIA | This season | ND |
|---|---|---|
| 14-2 | Record | 10-6 |
| 9-7 | ATS | 10-6 |
| 11-5 | O/U | 9-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIA 76–73 ND · ✓ MIA (62%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 39 | 42 | 81 |
| ND | 39 | 30 | 69 |
1st half: MIA 39, ND 39 (tied). The model had MIA by 2.2 and a total of 69.7 (actual 78).
Team stats
| MIA | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-58 50% | Field goals | 25-53 47% |
| 6-22 27% | 3-pointers | 7-23 30% |
| 17-21 81% | Free throws | 12-18 67% |
| 28 8 off | Rebounds | 35 12 off |
| 10 | Assists | 7 |
| 13 | Steals | 4 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson G | 38 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 8-14 | 1-4 |
| Malik Reneau F | 35 | 17 | 10 | 1 | 7-15 | 0-3 |
| Tru Washington G | 33 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4-11 | 1-4 |
| Shelton Henderson F | 26 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 6-8 | 1-3 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dante Allen G | 25 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| Timo Malovec F | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Noam Dovrat G | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Marcus Allen, Jordyn Kee, JJ Laboy, Treyvon Maddox
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Haralson G | 34 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 6-13 | 0-1 |
| Garrett Sundra F | 31 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Logan Imes G | 31 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 25 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| Carson Towt F | 22 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cole Certa G | 24 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Sir Mohammed G | 12 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 6-8 | 0-2 |
| Ryder Frost F | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Brady Koehler F | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Kebba Njie F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tommy Ahneman, Luke Devine, Matthew MacLellan, Brady Stevens, Mark Zackery IV, Markus Burton
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIA -5.5
ModelMIA -3.5
Model edgeND +2.0
L MIA covered
Total
Market143.5
Model148.9
Model edgeOver 5.4
W Over
Projected score
MIA 76.2 · ND 72.7
MIA 81 · ND 69
Win probability
MIA 62%
1st half
Spread
MIA -2.2
tied
Total
69.7
78 points
Projected score
MIA 36 · ND 33.7
MIA 39 · ND 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -2.5
3 → MIA
CloseMIA -5.5
3 pts toward MIA
Total
Open144.5
▼ 1
Close143.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
MIA -218 · ND +180
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -2.5 · closed MIA -5.5 · moved 3 toward MIAmodel MIA -3.5
model MIA -3.5
Opened 144.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 1 downmodel 149
model 149
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
| ND | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MIA 4–1 NDMIA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · MIA has won the last 4 meetings · MIA 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | ND 57 @ MIA 63 | MIA +7.5 | MIA W |
| Jan 24, 2023-24 | MIA 73 @ ND 61 | ND +5.5 | MIA W |
| Dec 2, 2023-24 | ND 49 @ MIA 62 | MIA -13.5 | ND W |
| Dec 30, 2022-23 | MIA 76 @ ND 65 | ND +2.5 | MIA W |
| Feb 2, 2021-22 | ND 68 @ MIA 64 | MIA -4.5 | ND W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Miami
16 games played
Straight up
14-2
88% wins
Against the spread
9-7
56% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-5
69% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 16 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -22.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNF | W 105-67 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 171.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 30 | vs PITT | W 76-69 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 7 | @ WAKE | W 81-77 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | vs GT | W 91-81 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 172 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−5.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
−2.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+5.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
−5.5
covered 9didn’t cover 7avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+17.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
+0.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+0.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
+15.5
over 11under 5avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Notre Dame
16 games played
Straight up
10-6
63% wins
Against the spread
10-6
63% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-7
56% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vs DETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @ OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vs KU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs HOU | L 56-66 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIZ | W 76-71 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 5 | @ TCU | W 87-85 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs IDHO | W 80-65 | -11.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 13 | vs EVAN | W 82-58 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 21 | vs PFW | L 69-72 | -11.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 30 | @ STAN | W 47-40 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 143.5 | U 87 |
| Jan 2 | @ CAL | L 71-72 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | vs CLEM | L 61-76 | +3.5 | L −11.5 | 133.5 | O 137 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
+1.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+6.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+8.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+3.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+9.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−14.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
+13.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+2.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
−11.5
covered 10didn’t cover 6avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
−10.5
2
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-71
+0.5
5
@TCU
TCUW 87-85
+30.5
10
vsIDHO
IDHOW 80-65
+0.5
13
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-58
+3.5
21
vsPFW
PFWL 69-72
−8.5
30
@STAN
STANW 47-40
−56.5
2
@CAL
CALL 71-72
+4.5
10
vsCLEM
CLEML 61-76
+3.5
over 9under 7avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Miami
14-2 overall · 3-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Georgia Tech91–81
- W@ Wake Forest81–77
- Wvs Pitt76–69
- Wvs North Florida105–67
- Wvs FIU98–81
3 days since their last game.
Notre Dame
10-6 overall · 1-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Clemson61–76
- L@ California71–72
- W@ Stanford47–40
- Lvs Purdue FW69–72
- Wvs Evansville82–58
3 days since their last game.