Moody Coliseum (Dallas) · at SMU · Conference game
Closing line
SMU -1.5✓ SMU covered by 12.5
SMU -1.5✓ SMU covered by 12.5Closing total155.5Over by 24.5
 UNC | This season | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| 13-1 | Record | 11-2 |
| 9-5 | ATS | 6-7 |
| 4-10 | O/U | 8-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNC 79–79 SMU · ✓ SMU (52%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 39 | 44 | 83 |
| SMU | 39 | 58 | 97 |
1st half: UNC 39, SMU 39 (tied). The model had SMU by 0.2 and a total of 73.8 (actual 78).
Team stats
| UNC | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-60 48% | Field goals | 36-60 60% |
| 12-28 43% | 3-pointers | 14-27 52% |
| 13-19 68% | Free throws | 11-16 69% |
| 30 9 off | Rebounds | 29 6 off |
| 21 | Assists | 23 |
| 4 | Steals | 4 |
| 1 | Blocks | 5 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Trimble G | 36 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 8-16 | 3-7 |
| Caleb Wilson F | 34 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 6-11 | 0-1 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 32 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 4-11 | 2-4 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 29 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Kyan Evans G | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jarin Stevenson F | 21 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 5-6 | 3-4 |
| Derek Dixon G | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Jonathan Powell G | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Jaydon Young G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Zayden High F | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Elijah Davis, Isaiah Denis, John Holbrook, James Brown, Ivan Matlekovic, Evan Smith
| SMU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.J. Edwards G | 39 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 6-9 | 2-4 |
| Jaron Pierre Jr. G | 33 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 5-13 | 1-6 |
| Boopie Miller G | 33 | 27 | 4 | 12 | 10-13 | 3-5 |
| Corey Washington F | 31 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 7-10 | 5-7 |
| Samet Yigitoglu C | 27 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaden Toombs F | 19 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 5-7 | 2-3 |
| Jermaine O'Neal Jr. F | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| B.J. Davis-Ray G | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Sam Walters F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Chance Puryear, Mitchell Holmes, Niccolo Kalischer-Stork, Billy White III, Nigel Walls, Trey Utter
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSMU -1.5
ModelSMU -0.6
Model edgeUNC +0.9
L SMU covered
Total
Market155.5
Model157.5
Model edgeOver 2.0
W Over
Projected score
UNC 78.5 · SMU 79
UNC 83 · SMU 97
Win probability
SMU 52%
1st half
Spread
SMU -0.2
tied
Total
73.8
78 points
Projected score
UNC 36.8 · SMU 37
UNC 39 · SMU 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -1.5
3 → SMU
CloseSMU -1.5
3 pts toward SMU
Total
Open151.5
▲ 4
Close155.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
UNC -102 · SMU -118
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -1.5 · closed SMU -1.5 · moved 3 toward SMUmodel SMU -0.5
model SMU -0.5
Opened 151.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 4 upmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% |
| SMU | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UNC 1–0 SMUUNC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UNC 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2024-25 | SMU 67 @ UNC 82 | UNC -6.5 | UNC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
North Carolina
14 games played
Straight up
13-1
93% wins
Against the spread
9-5
64% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-10
29% overs · avg −11.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs OSU | W 71-70 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | vs ECU | W 99-51 | -25.5 | W +22.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 30 | vs FSU | W 79-66 | -12.5 | W +0.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−1.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+22.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
+0.5
covered 9didn’t cover 5avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−16.5
22
vsECU
ECUW 99-51
+5.5
30
vsFSU
FSUW 79-66
−21.5
over 4under 10avg −11.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
SMU
13 games played
Straight up
11-2
85% wins
Against the spread
6-7
46% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-5
62% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs TAR | W 96-76 | -21.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 6 | vs AMCC | W 69-58 | -23.5 | L −12.5 | 160.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 11 | vs MUR | W 102-91 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 193 |
| Nov 15 | vs BTLR | W 87-85 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 18 | vs UAPB | W 106-60 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 168.5 | U 166 |
| Nov 21 | vs ARST | W 100-69 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Nov 24 | vsRAD | W 89-72 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 165.5 | U 161 |
| Nov 28 | @ MSST | W 87-81 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ VAN | L 69-88 | +10.5 | L −8.5 | 165.5 | U 157 |
| Dec 7 | vs TA&M | W 93-80 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 164.5 | O 173 |
| Dec 13 | vs LSU | L 77-89 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 21 | vsCARK | W 99-82 | -24.5 | L −7.5 | 156.5 | O 181 |
| Dec 28 | vs CSUF | W 110-63 | -21.5 | W +25.5 | 170.5 | O 173 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsTAR
TARW 96-76
−1.5
6
vsAMCC
AMCCW 69-58
−12.5
11
vsMUR
MURW 102-91
+0.5
15
vsBTLR
BTLRW 87-85
−5.5
18
vsUAPB
UAPBW 106-60
+10.5
21
vsARST
ARSTW 100-69
+16.5
24
vsRAD
RADW 89-72
−6.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 87-81
+7.5
3
@VAN
VANL 69-88
−8.5
7
vsTA&M
TA&MW 93-80
+14.5
13
vsLSU
LSUL 77-89
−10.5
21
vsCARK
CARKW 99-82
−7.5
28
vsCSUF
CSUFW 110-63
+25.5
covered 6didn’t cover 7avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTAR
TARW 96-76
+27.5
6
vsAMCC
AMCCW 69-58
−33.5
11
vsMUR
MURW 102-91
+28.5
15
vsBTLR
BTLRW 87-85
+8.5
18
vsUAPB
UAPBW 106-60
−2.5
21
vsARST
ARSTW 100-69
−3.5
24
vsRAD
RADW 89-72
−4.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 87-81
+5.5
3
@VAN
VANL 69-88
−8.5
7
vsTA&M
TA&MW 93-80
+8.5
13
vsLSU
LSUL 77-89
+7.5
21
vsCARK
CARKW 99-82
+24.5
28
vsCSUF
CSUFW 110-63
+2.5
over 8under 5avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
North Carolina
13-1 overall · 1-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Florida St79–66
- Wvs East Carolina99–51
- Wvs Ohio State71–70
- Wvs ETSU77–58
- Wvs SC Upstate80–62
4 days since their last game.
SMU
11-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Fullerton110–63
- Wvs C Arkansas99–82
- Lvs LSU77–89
- Wvs Texas A&M93–80
- L@ Vanderbilt69–88
6 days since their last game.