Millett Hall · at Miami OH · Conference game
Closing line
M-OH -7.5✓ TOL covered by 5.5
M-OH -7.5✓ TOL covered by 5.5Closing total162.5Under by 16.5
 TOL | This season | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| 14-13 | Record | 26-0 |
| 15-12 | ATS | 18-8 |
| 11-16 | O/U | 17-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TOL 78–86 M-OH · ✓ M-OH (74%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 35 | 37 | 72 |
| M-OH | 40 | 34 | 74 |
1st half: TOL 35, M-OH 40 (M-OH by 5). The model had M-OH by 4.3 and a total of 76.7 (actual 75).
Team stats
| TOL | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-67 48% | Field goals | 27-54 50% |
| 6-21 29% | 3-pointers | 12-32 38% |
| 2-2 100% | Free throws | 8-14 57% |
| 35 10 off | Rebounds | 31 6 off |
| 14 | Assists | 12 |
| 13 | Steals | 9 |
| 1 | Blocks | 5 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 48 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson G | 37 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6-15 | 1-5 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 36 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 9-16 | 1-5 |
| Sean Craig F | 28 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Mynor Strong G | 25 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-9 | 2-4 |
| Austin Parks C | 22 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 23 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3-9 | 1-3 |
| Will James Jr. G | 20 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Phoenix Glassnor, London Praytor, Chris Riddle, Toby Nwokolo, Tyler Ode
| M-OH | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brant Byers F | 34 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 4-8 | 3-6 |
| Peter Suder G | 34 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 7-10 | 4-7 |
| Eian Elmer G | 32 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2-10 | 2-8 |
| Luke Skaljac G | 29 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 4-7 | 1-4 |
| Antwone Woolfolk F | 22 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 6-10 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Almar Atlason F | 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Justin Kirby G | 19 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Trey Perry G | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Tyler Robbins F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Evan Ipsaro, Kyle Waltz, Leshawn Stowers, Brady Ganley, Eli Yofan, Ethan Wright, Blake Anderson, Jackson Kotecki
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketM-OH -7.5
ModelM-OH -7.4
Model edgeTOL +0.1
W TOL covered
Total
Market162.5
Model164.2
Model edgeOver 1.7
L Under
Projected score
TOL 78.4 · M-OH 85.8
TOL 72 · M-OH 74
Win probability
M-OH 74%
1st half
Spread
M-OH -4.3
M-OH -5.0
Total
76.7
75 points
Projected score
TOL 36.2 · M-OH 40.5
TOL 35 · M-OH 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenM-OH -8.5
1 → TOL
CloseM-OH -7.5
1 pt toward TOL
Total
Open162.5
no move
Close162.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
TOL +320 · M-OH -410
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened M-OH -8.5 · closed M-OH -7.5 · moved 1 toward TOLmodel M-OH -7.5 matches the line
model M-OH -7.5 = line ✓
Opened 162.5 · unchangedmodel 164
model 164
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| M-OH | 10-0 100% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
TOL 7–2 M-OHTOL leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · M-OH has won the last 2 meetings · TOL 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2025-26 | M-OH 87 @ TOL 73 | TOL -1.5 | M-OH W |
| Feb 11, 2024-25 | TOL 80 @ M-OH 92 | M-OH -4.5 | M-OH W |
| Mar 5, 2023-24 | TOL 97 @ M-OH 63 | M-OH +2.5 | TOL W |
| Jan 5, 2023-24 | M-OH 64 @ TOL 68 | TOL -11.5 | M-OH W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | M-OH 75 vs TOL 91 | TOL -13.5 | TOL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Toledo
27 games played
Straight up
14-13
52% wins
Against the spread
15-12
56% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-16
41% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs MRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | vs WMU | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @ CMU | W 78-75 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 6 | @ NIU | W 75-61 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 9 | vsM-OH | L 73-87 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs OHIO | W 101-85 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @ KENT | L 84-87 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 20 | @ MASS | L 82-84 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 24 | vs BGSU | W 73-72 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 27 | @ AKR | L 81-91 | +12.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 31 | vs BALL | W 73-55 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 3 | vsKENT | L 72-75 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 161.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 7 | @ JMU | L 71-73 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 11 | @WMU | W 90-79 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 14 | @BGSU | L 70-80 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Feb 21 | vs EMU | W 94-75 | -8.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 24 | vsNIU | W 79-69 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 28 | @OHIO | W 79-67 | +1.5 | W +13.5 | 158.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
−5.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−4.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
+6.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−15.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+13.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+0.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
+2.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+2.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
+9.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−1.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−3.5
11
@WMU
WMUW 90-79
+4.5
14
@BGSU
BGSUL 70-80
−6.5
21
vsEMU
EMUW 94-75
+10.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 79-69
−2.5
28
@OHIO
OHIOW 79-67
+13.5
covered 15didn’t cover 12avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
+2.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−5.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
−25.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−6.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+24.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+1.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
−10.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+3.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
−18.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−14.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−9.5
11
@WMU
WMUW 90-79
+14.5
14
@BGSU
BGSUL 70-80
−0.5
21
vsEMU
EMUW 94-75
+23.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 79-69
−2.5
28
@OHIO
OHIOW 79-67
−12.5
over 11under 16avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miami OH
26 games played
Straight up
26-0
100% wins
Against the spread
18-8
69% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-9
65% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ODU | W 87-72 | -16.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 15 | @ AF | W 76-61 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 20 | vs MERC | W 76-71 | -15.5 | L −10.5 | 139.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 23 | vs UAPB | W 111-84 | -21.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 26 | vs UNCG | W 82-71 | -10.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 6 | vs ME | W 93-61 | -17.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 10 | @ UNCA | W 90-87 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | O 177 |
| Dec 13 | @ EKU | W 79-69 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 158.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 16 | @WRST | W 83-76 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 149.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | @BALL | W 86-77 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 30 | @BGSU | W 93-83 | +6.5 | W +16.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 3 | vsAKR | W 76-73 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 177.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 6 | vsWMU | W 87-76 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 9 | @TOL | W 87-73 | +1.5 | W +15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 13 | vsCMU | W 100-61 | -15.5 | W +23.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 17 | vs BUF | W 105-102 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
| Jan 20 | @KENT | W 107-101 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 167.5 | O 208 |
| Jan 27 | vsMASS | W 86-84 | -9.5 | L −7.5 | 164.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 31 | vsNIU | W 85-61 | -16.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 3 | @BUF | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 7 | @MRSH | W 90-74 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 13 | vsOHIO | W 90-74 | -7.5 | W +8.5 | 163.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 17 | @MASS | W 86-77 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
| Feb 20 | vsBGSU | W 91-77 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 154.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 24 | @EMU | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 27 | @WMU | W 69-67 | -12.5 | L −10.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsODU
ODUW 87-72
−1.5
15
@AF
AFW 76-61
+4.5
20
vsMERC
MERCW 76-71
−10.5
23
vsUAPB
UAPBW 111-84
+5.5
26
vsUNCG
UNCGW 82-71
+0.5
6
vsME
MEW 93-61
+14.5
10
@UNCA
UNCAW 90-87
−3.5
13
@EKU
EKUW 79-69
+4.5
16
@WRST
WRSTW 83-76
+5.5
20
@BALL
BALLW 86-77
+1.5
30
@BGSU
BGSUW 93-83
+16.5
3
vsAKR
AKRW 76-73
+7.5
6
vsWMU
WMUW 87-76
−3.5
9
@TOL
TOLW 87-73
+15.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 100-61
+23.5
17
vsBUF
BUFW 105-102
−7.5
20
@KENT
KENTW 107-101
+7.5
27
vsMASS
MASSW 86-84
−7.5
31
vsNIU
NIUW 85-61
+7.5
3
@BUF
BUFW 73-71
−2.5
7
@MRSH
MRSHW 90-74
+14.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 90-74
+8.5
17
@MASS
MASSW 86-77
+5.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUW 91-77
+5.5
24
@EMU
EMUW 74-64
+1.5
27
@WMU
WMUW 69-67
−10.5
covered 18didn’t cover 8avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsODU
ODUW 87-72
+5.5
15
@AF
AFW 76-61
−6.5
20
vsMERC
MERCW 76-71
+7.5
23
vsUAPB
UAPBW 111-84
+34.5
26
vsUNCG
UNCGW 82-71
+2.5
6
vsME
MEW 93-61
+14.5
10
@UNCA
UNCAW 90-87
+24.5
13
@EKU
EKUW 79-69
−10.5
16
@WRST
WRSTW 83-76
+9.5
20
@BALL
BALLW 86-77
+15.5
30
@BGSU
BGSUW 93-83
+25.5
3
vsAKR
AKRW 76-73
−28.5
6
vsWMU
WMUW 87-76
+2.5
9
@TOL
TOLW 87-73
−6.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 100-61
+2.5
17
vsBUF
BUFW 105-102
+44.5
20
@KENT
KENTW 107-101
+40.5
27
vsMASS
MASSW 86-84
+5.5
31
vsNIU
NIUW 85-61
−12.5
3
@BUF
BUFW 73-71
−21.5
7
@MRSH
MRSHW 90-74
+1.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 90-74
+0.5
17
@MASS
MASSW 86-77
−0.5
20
vsBGSU
BGSUW 91-77
+13.5
24
@EMU
EMUW 74-64
−13.5
27
@WMU
WMUW 69-67
−25.5
over 17under 9avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Toledo
14-13 overall · 10-6 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Ohio79–67
- Wvs N Illinois79–69
- Wvs E Michigan94–75
- L@ Bowling Green70–80
- W@ W Michigan90–79
3 days since their last game.
Miami OH
26-0 overall · 16-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ W Michigan69–67
- W@ E Michigan74–64
- Wvs Bowling Green91–77
- W@ UMass86–77
- Wvs Ohio90–74
4 days since their last game.