The Palestra · at Penn · Conference game
Closing line
YALE -6.5✓ YALE covered by 10.5
YALE -6.5✓ YALE covered by 10.5Closing total157.5Under by 20.5
| YALE | This season | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| 12-3 | Record | 8-8 |
| 8-7 | ATS | 11-5 |
| 9-6 | O/U | 6-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: YALE 82–74 PENN · ✓ YALE (75%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| YALE | 40 | 37 | 77 |
| PENN | 30 | 30 | 60 |
1st half: YALE 40, PENN 30 (YALE by 10). The model had YALE by 4.6 and a total of 73.2 (actual 70).
Team stats
| YALE | PENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-61 46% | Field goals | 21-55 38% |
| 7-17 41% | 3-pointers | 7-25 28% |
| 14-16 88% | Free throws | 11-18 61% |
| 42 14 off | Rebounds | 28 9 off |
| 15 | Assists | 13 |
| 4 | Steals | 4 |
| 4 | Blocks | 8 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 3 |
Players
| YALE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Celiscar F | 35 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 4-12 | 0-0 |
| Nick Townsend F | 35 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5-9 | 2-3 |
| Casey Simmons G | 30 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 7-11 | 0-0 |
| Trevor Mullin G | 27 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 5-11 | 2-6 |
| Samson Aletan C | 23 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Brathwaite G | 21 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Riley Fox F | 16 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Devon Arlington G | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Daniel Ogunyemi, Jack Sullivan, Alvin Loving, Jacob Tsai, Courtney Wallace, Jeannot Basima
| PENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Power F | 35 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 4-14 | 2-7 |
| AJ Levine G | 35 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 5-9 | 1-4 |
| Ethan Roberts G | 31 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4-10 | 2-4 |
| Michael Zanoni G | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-11 | 1-7 |
| Augustus Gerhart F | 21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dalton Scantlebury F | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Cam Thrower G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Lucas Lueth F | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Niklas Polonowski G | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Jay Jones G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Alex Massung G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Payton Kamin, William Kruse, Ryan Altman, Michelangelo Oberti, Bradyn Foster, Dylan Williams, Johnnie Walter, Chris Ubochi
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketYALE -6.5
ModelYALE -7.6
Model edgeYALE +1.1
W YALE covered
Total
Market157.5
Model156.3
Model edgeUnder 1.2
W Under
Projected score
YALE 82 · PENN 74.4
YALE 77 · PENN 60
Win probability
YALE 75%
1st half
Spread
YALE -4.6
YALE -10.0
Total
73.2
70 points
Projected score
YALE 38.9 · PENN 34.3
YALE 40 · PENN 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenYALE -7.5
1 → PENN
CloseYALE -6.5
1 pt toward PENN
Total
Open158.5
▼ 1
Close157.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
YALE -290 · PENN +235
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened YALE -7.5 · closed YALE -6.5 · moved 1 toward PENNmodel YALE -7.5
model YALE -7.5
Opened 158.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 1 downmodel 156.5
model 156.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| YALE | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| PENN | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
YALE 7–2 PENNYALE leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · YALE has won the last 4 meetings · YALE 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2024-25 | PENN 71 @ YALE 72 | YALE -16.5 | PENN W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | YALE 90 @ PENN 61 | PENN +11.5 | YALE W |
| Feb 16, 2023-24 | YALE 76 @ PENN 62 | PENN +5.5 | YALE W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | PENN 58 @ YALE 74 | YALE -13.5 | YALE W |
| Feb 17, 2022-23 | YALE 64 @ PENN 66 | PENN +2.5 | PENN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Yale
15 games played
Straight up
12-3
80% wins
Against the spread
8-7
53% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-6
60% overs · avg +5.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ NAVY | W 97-68 | -5.5 | W +23.5 | 147.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 11 | @ QUIN | W 97-60 | -6.5 | W +30.5 | 156.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 15 | vs STBK | W 86-79 | -20.5 | L −13.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 18 | vs URI | L 77-86 | -8.5 | L −17.5 | 153.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 21 | vs GB | W 73-67 | -17.5 | L −11.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 23 | vs COFC | W 74-63 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 24 | vs AKR | W 97-94 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 30 | @ UVM | W 77-74 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 7 | vs UIC | W 80-66 | -12.5 | W +1.5 | 148.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 10 | vs UALB | W 93-82 | -17.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 29 | @ ALA | L 78-102 | +15.5 | L −8.5 | 171.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 5 | @ BRWN | W 70-53 | -8.5 | W +8.5 | 142.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 10 | @ PRIN | L 60-76 | -7.5 | L −23.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 17 | vs COR | W 102-68 | -9.5 | W +24.5 | 174.5 | U 170 |
| Jan 19 | vs COLU | W 91-74 | -9.5 | W +7.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@NAVY
NAVYW 97-68
+23.5
11
@QUIN
QUINW 97-60
+30.5
15
vsSTBK
STBKW 86-79
−13.5
18
vsURI
URIL 77-86
−17.5
21
vsGB
GBW 73-67
−11.5
23
vsCOFC
COFCW 74-63
+4.5
24
vsAKR
AKRW 97-94
+4.5
30
@UVM
UVMW 77-74
−3.5
7
vsUIC
UICW 80-66
+1.5
10
vsUALB
UALBW 93-82
−6.5
29
@ALA
ALAL 78-102
−8.5
5
@BRWN
BRWNW 70-53
+8.5
10
@PRIN
PRINL 60-76
−23.5
17
vsCOR
CORW 102-68
+24.5
19
vsCOLU
COLUW 91-74
+7.5
covered 8didn’t cover 7avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@NAVY
NAVYW 97-68
+17.5
11
@QUIN
QUINW 97-60
+0.5
15
vsSTBK
STBKW 86-79
+14.5
18
vsURI
URIL 77-86
+9.5
21
vsGB
GBW 73-67
−8.5
23
vsCOFC
COFCW 74-63
−11.5
24
vsAKR
AKRW 97-94
+34.5
30
@UVM
UVMW 77-74
+3.5
7
vsUIC
UICW 80-66
−2.5
10
vsUALB
UALBW 93-82
+29.5
29
@ALA
ALAL 78-102
+8.5
5
@BRWN
BRWNW 70-53
−19.5
10
@PRIN
PRINL 60-76
−6.5
17
vsCOR
CORW 102-68
−4.5
19
vsCOLU
COLUW 91-74
+14.5
over 9under 6avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Penn
16 games played
Straight up
8-8
50% wins
Against the spread
11-5
69% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-10
38% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | @ AMER | L 78-84 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 11 | @ PROV | L 81-106 | +19.5 | L −5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 17 | vs JOES | W 83-74 | +5.5 | W +14.5 | 163.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ DREX | W 84-68 | +4.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 28 | vs MRMK | W 77-65 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | vs LAS | W 73-71 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 30 | vs HOF | L 60-77 | +1.5 | L −15.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 6 | @ VILL | L 63-90 | +18.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 8 | vs LAF | W 74-72 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 20 | @ RUTG | L 69-70 | +11.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 28 | @ GMU | L 79-83 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 146.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 31 | vs NJIT | W 80-61 | -14.5 | W +4.5 | 151.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 5 | @PRIN | L 76-78 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 10 | vsBRWN | W 81-73 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ DART | W 84-74 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 19 | @ HARV | L 63-64 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
9
@AMER
AMERL 78-84
−7.5
11
@PROV
PROVL 81-106
−5.5
17
vsJOES
JOESW 83-74
+14.5
21
@DREX
DREXW 84-68
+20.5
28
vsMRMK
MRMKW 77-65
+9.5
29
vsLAS
LASW 73-71
+0.5
30
vsHOF
HOFL 60-77
−15.5
6
@VILL
VILLL 63-90
−8.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 74-72
−5.5
20
@RUTG
RUTGL 69-70
+10.5
28
@GMU
GMUL 79-83
+12.5
31
vsNJIT
NJITW 80-61
+4.5
5
@PRIN
PRINL 76-78
+1.5
10
vsBRWN
BRWNW 81-73
+2.5
17
@DART
DARTW 84-74
+12.5
19
@HARV
HARVL 63-64
+4.5
covered 11didn’t cover 5avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
9
@AMER
AMERL 78-84
+7.5
11
@PROV
PROVL 81-106
+14.5
17
vsJOES
JOESW 83-74
−6.5
21
@DREX
DREXW 84-68
−0.5
28
vsMRMK
MRMKW 77-65
−10.5
29
vsLAS
LASW 73-71
−5.5
30
vsHOF
HOFL 60-77
−12.5
6
@VILL
VILLL 63-90
+2.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 74-72
−4.5
20
@RUTG
RUTGL 69-70
−11.5
28
@GMU
GMUL 79-83
+15.5
31
vsNJIT
NJITW 80-61
−10.5
5
@PRIN
PRINL 76-78
+8.5
10
vsBRWN
BRWNW 81-73
+8.5
17
@DART
DARTW 84-74
−5.5
19
@HARV
HARVL 63-64
−23.5
over 6under 10avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Yale
12-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Ivy League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Columbia91–74
- Wvs Cornell102–68
- L@ Princeton60–76
- W@ Brown70–53
- L@ Alabama78–102
5 days since their last game.
Penn
8-8 overall · 2-2 in conference · Ivy League
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Harvard63–64
- W@ Dartmouth84–74
- Wvs Brown81–73
- L@ Princeton76–78
- Wvs NJIT80–61
5 days since their last game.