LionTree Arena · at UC San Diego · Conference game
Closing line
UCSD -4.5✓ UCSB covered by 18.5
UCSD -4.5✓ UCSB covered by 18.5Closing total145.5Under by 35.5
 UCSB | This season | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| 11-7 | Record | 13-6 |
| 6-12 | ATS | 11-8 |
| 10-8 | O/U | 10-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UCSB 71–78 UCSD · ✗ UCSD (73%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSB | 35 | 27 | 62 |
| UCSD | 22 | 26 | 48 |
1st half: UCSB 35, UCSD 22 (UCSB by 13). The model had UCSD by 4.0 and a total of 69.7 (actual 57).
Team stats
| UCSB | UCSD | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-51 37% | Field goals | 18-50 36% |
| 10-26 38% | 3-pointers | 5-16 31% |
| 14-20 70% | Free throws | 7-12 58% |
| 33 7 off | Rebounds | 36 9 off |
| 13 | Assists | 7 |
| 9 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 1 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 19 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 16 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| UCSB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Mahaney G | 37 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 4-9 | 2-4 |
| Miro Little G | 35 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 3-12 | 1-5 |
| Colin Smith F | 32 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-8 | 3-5 |
| Zion Sensley G | 23 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-6 |
| Evans Kipruto C | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| CJ Shaw G | 26 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Hosana Kitenge F | 18 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Marvin McGhee IV G | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Michael Simcoe F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Koat Keat Tong F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jason Fontenet II, Bryce Bedgood, ZZ Clark, Isaac Shingange, Luke Zuffelato, John Simcoe, Kyle Haughy
| UCSD | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Beattie G | 36 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4-11 | 0-4 |
| Alex Chaikin G | 33 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Leo Beath F | 28 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Bol Dengdit C | 26 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 6-9 | 2-3 |
| Hudson Mayes G | 22 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3-10 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Aidan Burke G | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Vance F | 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-2 |
| Trap Johnson G | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Cade Pendleton F | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Dimitrije Vukicevic C | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ryder Elisaldez, Christopher Cox, Tyson Dunn, Yaqub Mir, Jasen Brooks, Emanuel Prospere II
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUCSD -4.5
ModelUCSD -6.9
Model edgeUCSD +2.4
L UCSB covered
Total
Market145.5
Model148.8
Model edgeOver 3.3
L Under
Projected score
UCSB 71 · UCSD 77.9
UCSB 62 · UCSD 48
Win probability
UCSD 73%
1st half
Spread
UCSD -4.0
UCSB -13.0
Total
69.7
57 points
Projected score
UCSB 32.8 · UCSD 36.8
UCSB 35 · UCSD 22
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUCSD -4.5
no move
CloseUCSD -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open144.5
▲ 1
Close145.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
UCSB +150 · UCSD -180
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UCSD -4.5 · unchangedmodel UCSD -7
model UCSD -7
Opened 144.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 1 upmodel 149
model 149
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCSB | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
| UCSD | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
UCSB 3–6 UCSDUCSD leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UCSD has won the last 5 meetings · UCSB 3-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024-25 | UCSB 51 vs UCSD 69 | UCSD -11.5 | UCSD W |
| Jan 23, 2024-25 | UCSB 63 @ UCSD 77 | UCSD -9.5 | UCSD W |
| Dec 5, 2024-25 | UCSD 84 @ UCSB 76 | UCSB -2.5 | UCSD W |
| Feb 15, 2023-24 | UCSB 46 @ UCSD 61 | UCSD -5.5 | UCSD W |
| Jan 4, 2023-24 | UCSD 79 @ UCSB 72 | UCSB -5.5 | UCSD W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Santa Barbara
18 games played
Straight up
11-7
61% wins
Against the spread
6-12
33% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-8
56% overs · avg +5.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs SJSU | W 85-74 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ SAC | W 92-87 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 17 | vs LMU | L 74-78 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 22 | @ NEV | L 64-77 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 28 | vs LEH | W 72-70 | -10.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | vs SEA | W 74-71 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 4 | vs LBSU | W 84-77 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 6 | vs CSUB | W 109-84 | -12.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 13 | vs UVU | L 53-68 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 17 | @ GB | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 22 | vs PORT | W 79-61 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 1 | @ CSUF | L 84-95 | -3.5 | L −14.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | @ CSUN | L 65-74 | +2.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 8 | vs UCD | L 86-93 | -4.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 15 | @CSUB | W 75-69 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs HAW | W 77-62 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 22 | vs CP | W 107-67 | -8.5 | W +31.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 24 | @LBSU | W 74-71 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vsSJSU
SJSUW 85-74
+1.5
11
@SAC
SACW 92-87
−2.5
17
vsLMU
LMUL 74-78
−7.5
22
@NEV
NEVL 64-77
−7.5
28
vsLEH
LEHW 72-70
−8.5
29
vsSEA
SEAW 74-71
+5.5
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 84-77
−6.5
6
vsCSUB
CSUBW 109-84
+12.5
13
vsUVU
UVUL 53-68
−9.5
17
@GB
GBL 64-67
−10.5
22
vsPORT
PORTW 79-61
+8.5
1
@CSUF
CSUFL 84-95
−14.5
3
@CSUN
CSUNL 65-74
−6.5
8
vsUCD
UCDL 86-93
−11.5
15
@CSUB
CSUBW 75-69
−1.5
17
vsHAW
HAWW 77-62
+17.5
22
vsCP
CPW 107-67
+31.5
24
@LBSU
LBSUW 74-71
−1.5
covered 6didn’t cover 12avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsSJSU
SJSUW 85-74
+12.5
11
@SAC
SACW 92-87
+17.5
17
vsLMU
LMUL 74-78
+6.5
22
@NEV
NEVL 64-77
−6.5
28
vsLEH
LEHW 72-70
−4.5
29
vsSEA
SEAW 74-71
+2.5
4
vsLBSU
LBSUW 84-77
+19.5
6
vsCSUB
CSUBW 109-84
+47.5
13
vsUVU
UVUL 53-68
−25.5
17
@GB
GBL 64-67
−9.5
22
vsPORT
PORTW 79-61
−7.5
1
@CSUF
CSUFL 84-95
+23.5
3
@CSUN
CSUNL 65-74
−17.5
8
vsUCD
UCDL 86-93
+31.5
15
@CSUB
CSUBW 75-69
−0.5
17
vsHAW
HAWW 77-62
−4.5
22
vsCP
CPW 107-67
+14.5
24
@LBSU
LBSUW 74-71
+0.5
over 10under 8avg +5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
UC San Diego
19 games played
Straight up
13-6
68% wins
Against the spread
11-8
58% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-9
53% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | vs HCU | W 78-60 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 12 | @ FRES | W 78-73 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs IDHO | W 75-67 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 24 | vs TEM | W 91-76 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 25 | vs BRAD | W 87-77 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 26 | vs TOW | W 87-73 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 2 | @NEV | L 70-76 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @LBSU | W 80-74 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 13 | vs TULN | W 93-67 | -5.5 | W +20.5 | 149.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 16 | @LMU | W 67-57 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 19 | vs USD | L 80-82 | -12.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 1 | @CP | L 65-67 | -8.5 | L −10.5 | 174.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 3 | vsHAW | W 83-73 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 8 | vsCSUF | L 71-88 | -13.5 | L −30.5 | 166.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 10 | @ UCR | W 69-66 | -10.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 15 | vsCSUN | L 79-84 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 17 | @CSUB | W 83-62 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 22 | @UCD | W 80-74 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 24 | vs UCI | L 59-61 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 146.5 | U 120 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
vsHCU
HCUW 78-60
+10.5
12
@FRES
FRESW 78-73
+6.5
15
vsIDHO
IDHOW 75-67
+2.5
24
vsTEM
TEMW 91-76
+16.5
25
vsBRAD
BRADW 87-77
+11.5
26
vsTOW
TOWW 87-73
+12.5
2
@NEV
NEVL 70-76
−0.5
6
@LBSU
LBSUW 80-74
−2.5
13
vsTULN
TULNW 93-67
+20.5
16
@LMU
LMUW 67-57
+8.5
19
vsUSD
USDL 80-82
−14.5
1
@CP
CPL 65-67
−10.5
3
vsHAW
HAWW 83-73
+7.5
8
vsCSUF
CSUFL 71-88
−30.5
10
@UCR
UCRW 69-66
−7.5
15
vsCSUN
CSUNL 79-84
−12.5
17
@CSUB
CSUBW 83-62
+12.5
22
@UCD
UCDW 80-74
+4.5
24
vsUCI
UCIL 59-61
−4.5
covered 11didn’t cover 8avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
vsHCU
HCUW 78-60
−3.5
12
@FRES
FRESW 78-73
+2.5
15
vsIDHO
IDHOW 75-67
−6.5
24
vsTEM
TEMW 91-76
+18.5
25
vsBRAD
BRADW 87-77
+18.5
26
vsTOW
TOWW 87-73
+21.5
2
@NEV
NEVL 70-76
−3.5
6
@LBSU
LBSUW 80-74
+8.5
13
vsTULN
TULNW 93-67
+10.5
16
@LMU
LMUW 67-57
−26.5
19
vsUSD
USDL 80-82
+5.5
1
@CP
CPL 65-67
−42.5
3
vsHAW
HAWW 83-73
+7.5
8
vsCSUF
CSUFL 71-88
−7.5
10
@UCR
UCRW 69-66
−14.5
15
vsCSUN
CSUNL 79-84
+3.5
17
@CSUB
CSUBW 83-62
−2.5
22
@UCD
UCDW 80-74
+1.5
24
vsUCI
UCIL 59-61
−26.5
over 10under 9avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Santa Barbara
11-7 overall · 6-3 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Long Beach St74–71
- Wvs Cal Poly107–67
- Wvs Hawai'i77–62
- W@ Bakersfield75–69
- Lvs UC Davis86–93
5 days since their last game.
UC San Diego
13-6 overall · 5-4 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UC Irvine59–61
- W@ UC Davis80–74
- W@ Bakersfield83–62
- Lvs CSU Northridge79–84
- W@ UC Riverside69–66
5 days since their last game.