Cajundome · at Louisiana · Conference game
Closing line
USM -3.5✓ USM covered by 3.5
USM -3.5✓ USM covered by 3.5Closing total129.5Over by 11.5
| USM | This season | UL |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7 | Record | 3-12 |
| 5-8 | ATS | 7-8 |
| 7-6 | O/U | 4-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USM 69–65 UL · ✓ USM (66%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 33 | 41 | 74 |
| UL | 27 | 40 | 67 |
1st half: USM 33, UL 27 (USM by 6). The model had USM by 3.0 and a total of 62.7 (actual 60).
Team stats
| USM | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-45 51% | Field goals | 24-55 44% |
| 3-13 23% | 3-pointers | 7-20 35% |
| 25-30 83% | Free throws | 12-16 75% |
| 30 8 off | Rebounds | 24 9 off |
| 11 | Assists | 10 |
| 9 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Brumfield G | 40 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 7-10 | 0-0 |
| Djahi Binet F | 35 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 7-9 | 0-0 |
| Tylik Weeks F | 28 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 3-9 | 0-1 |
| Brewer Carruth G | 19 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Curt Lewis G | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Israel Hart G | 27 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 2-7 | 2-6 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Fallou Diagne C | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Tegra Izay C | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chandler Watts, Felipe Patino, Dalyn Brandon, Jett Montgomery, EJ Paymon, Isaac Taveras, Blake Lander, Robert Cowherd, IJ Ezuma
| UL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'vion Lavergne G | 35 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 8-13 | 2-3 |
| Dorian Finister G | 33 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 5-12 | 2-5 |
| Joshua Lewis F | 26 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-3 |
| Milan Mejia G | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Todd Jones Jr. F | 20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaxon Olvera G | 28 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 3-15 | 1-8 |
| Jeremiah Evans F | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Dariyus Woodson F | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Karris Bilal G | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kyran Ratliff F | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Mike Collins G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Logan Myers, Rahman Olajuwon, Sean Elkinton, Michael Mouton, Christian Landry, Zeke Cook, Jamyron Keller
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSM -3.5
ModelUSM -4.8
Model edgeUSM +1.3
W USM covered
Total
Market129.5
Model133.7
Model edgeOver 4.2
W Over
Projected score
USM 69.2 · UL 64.5
USM 74 · UL 67
Win probability
USM 66%
1st half
Spread
USM -3.0
USM -6.0
Total
62.7
60 points
Projected score
USM 32.8 · UL 29.8
USM 33 · UL 27
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSM -4.5
1 → UL
CloseUSM -3.5
1 pt toward UL
Total
Open129.5
no move
Close129.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
USM -170 · UL +142
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USM -4.5 · closed USM -3.5 · moved 1 toward ULmodel USM -5
model USM -5
Opened 129.5 · unchangedmodel 133.5
model 133.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| UL | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
USM 4–4 ULSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · USM 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025-26 | UL 54 @ USM 62 | USM -11.5 | UL W |
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | UL 62 @ USM 60 | USM -4.5 | UL W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | USM 67 @ UL 59 | UL +1.5 | USM W |
| Mar 1, 2023-24 | USM 61 @ UL 77 | UL -8.5 | UL W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | UL 71 @ USM 82 | USM +2.5 | USM W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern Miss
13 games played
Straight up
6-7
46% wins
Against the spread
5-8
38% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BUF | L 79-85 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 9 | @ SC | L 79-83 | +17.5 | W +13.5 | 147.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 13 | @ GRAM | L 70-75 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 22 | vs UNF | W 92-83 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 23 | vs UTM | W 70-60 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 3 | @ RAD | W 82-75 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | @ MIA | L 64-88 | +19.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 8 | vsGRAM | W 68-60 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs MISS | L 67-71 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vsUL | W 62-54 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARST | L 86-93 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | @ LSU | L 62-90 | +21.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 1 | @ ULM | W 87-73 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
+11.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+10.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
−4.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−0.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
+8.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−3.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
−5.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−6.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+4.5
covered 5didn’t cover 8avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
23
vsUTM
UTMW 70-60
−16.5
3
@RAD
RADW 82-75
+4.5
6
@MIA
MIAL 64-88
+6.5
8
vsGRAM
GRAMW 68-60
−14.5
13
vsMISS
MISSL 67-71
−0.5
18
vsUL
ULW 62-54
−16.5
20
vsARST
ARSTL 86-93
+23.5
29
@LSU
LSUL 62-90
−2.5
1
@ULM
ULMW 87-73
+7.5
over 7under 6avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisiana
15 games played
Straight up
3-12
20% wins
Against the spread
7-8
47% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-11
27% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BALL | L 64-75 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 7 | vs SELA | W 58-52 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 135.5 | U 110 |
| Nov 11 | vs TULN | L 62-66 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 135.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 14 | @ MCN | L 62-88 | +15.5 | L −10.5 | 134.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 18 | @ STAN | L 66-93 | +20.5 | L −6.5 | 139.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 21 | @ SCU | L 43-80 | +19.5 | L −17.5 | 140.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 24 | @ UCD | L 56-77 | +9.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 28 | vs JKST | L 45-51 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | U 96 |
| Dec 3 | @ LAM | L 55-65 | +10.5 | W +0.5 | 129.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCW | L 63-70 | +12.5 | W +5.5 | 130.5 | O 133 |
| Dec 13 | @ LT | L 44-65 | +9.5 | L −11.5 | 126.5 | U 109 |
| Dec 18 | @USM | L 54-62 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 132.5 | U 116 |
| Dec 20 | @ULM | W 76-62 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 136.5 | O 138 |
| Dec 28 | vs NORF | W 63-54 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 126.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 31 | vs USA | L 58-63 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 127.5 | U 121 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BALL
BALLL 64-75
−6.5
7
vsSELA
SELAW 58-52
+2.5
11
vsTULN
TULNL 62-66
+1.5
14
@MCN
MCNL 62-88
−10.5
18
@STAN
STANL 66-93
−6.5
21
@SCU
SCUL 43-80
−17.5
24
@UCD
UCDL 56-77
−11.5
28
vsJKST
JKSTL 45-51
−11.5
3
@LAM
LAML 55-65
+0.5
6
vsUNCW
UNCWL 63-70
+5.5
13
@LT
LTL 44-65
−11.5
18
@USM
USML 54-62
+3.5
20
@ULM
ULMW 76-62
+12.5
28
vsNORF
NORFW 63-54
+5.5
31
vsUSA
USAL 58-63
−1.5
covered 7didn’t cover 8avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BALL
BALLL 64-75
−2.5
7
vsSELA
SELAW 58-52
−25.5
11
vsTULN
TULNL 62-66
−7.5
14
@MCN
MCNL 62-88
+15.5
18
@STAN
STANL 66-93
+19.5
21
@SCU
SCUL 43-80
−17.5
24
@UCD
UCDL 56-77
−3.5
28
vsJKST
JKSTL 45-51
−40.5
3
@LAM
LAML 55-65
−9.5
6
vsUNCW
UNCWL 63-70
+2.5
13
@LT
LTL 44-65
−17.5
18
@USM
USML 54-62
−16.5
20
@ULM
ULMW 76-62
+1.5
28
vsNORF
NORFW 63-54
−9.5
31
vsUSA
USAL 58-63
−6.5
over 4under 11avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern Miss
6-7 overall · 2-1 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UL Monroe87–73
- L@ LSU62–90
- Lvs Arkansas St86–93
- Wvs Louisiana62–54
- Lvs Ole Miss67–71
2 days since their last game.
Louisiana
3-12 overall · 1-2 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs South Alabama58–63
- Wvs Norfolk St63–54
- W@ UL Monroe76–62
- L@ Southern Miss54–62
- L@ Louisiana Tech44–65
3 days since their last game.