Worthington Arena · at Montana St · Conference game
Closing line
MTST -6.5✓ MTST covered by 14.5
MTST -6.5✓ MTST covered by 14.5Closing total158.5Under by 15.5
 SAC | This season | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| 6-19 | Record | 13-13 |
| 11-14 | ATS | 15-11 |
| 15-10 | O/U | 15-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SAC 74–83 MTST · ✓ MTST (77%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 33 | 28 | 61 |
| MTST | 37 | 45 | 82 |
1st half: SAC 33, MTST 37 (MTST by 4). The model had MTST by 5.0 and a total of 73.4 (actual 70).
Team stats
| SAC | MTST | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-60 35% | Field goals | 32-61 52% |
| 8-21 38% | 3-pointers | 13-33 39% |
| 11-17 65% | Free throws | 5-12 42% |
| 21 4 off | Rebounds | 50 14 off |
| 7 | Assists | 11 |
| 9 | Steals | 2 |
| 0 | Blocks | 5 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 16 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| SAC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Lavrenov F | 35 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Arman Madi G | 35 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 6-10 | 1-3 |
| Prophet Johnson G | 33 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 5-12 | 3-5 |
| Romari Robinson G | 22 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Shaqir O'Neal F | 20 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayden Teat G | 28 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 5-11 | 2-4 |
| Jahni Summers G | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-2 |
| Taj Glover G | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Bear Cherry, Zach Anderson, Isaiah Bronson, Davis Ambuehl, Jeremiah Nyarko, Brandon Gardner, Mikey Williams
| MTST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Davis G | 38 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 7-13 | 1-5 |
| Seth Amunrud G | 38 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 8-12 | 5-7 |
| Jed Miller G | 38 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 7-18 | 4-11 |
| Chris Hodges F | 27 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Christian King F | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Howie Keene G | 29 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 4-7 | 2-5 |
| Jaden Steppe F | 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Grayson Gaddis F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Calum Rutherfurd F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: James Steward, Cavin Holden, CJ Purdie, Davian Brown, Waka Mbatch, Patrick McMahon
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMTST -6.5
ModelMTST -8.6
Model edgeMTST +2.1
W MTST covered
Total
Market158.5
Model157.0
Model edgeUnder 1.5
W Under
Projected score
SAC 74.2 · MTST 82.8
SAC 61 · MTST 82
Win probability
MTST 77%
1st half
Spread
MTST -5.0
MTST -4.0
Total
73.4
70 points
Projected score
SAC 34.2 · MTST 39.2
SAC 33 · MTST 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMTST -9.5
3 → SAC
CloseMTST -6.5
3 pts toward SAC
Total
Open157.5
▲ 1
Close158.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
SAC +250 · MTST -310
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MTST -9.5 · closed MTST -6.5 · moved 3 toward SACmodel MTST -8.5
model MTST -8.5
Opened 157.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 1 upmodel 157
model 157
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| MTST | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
SAC 2–9 MTSTMTST leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · SAC 6-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025-26 | MTST 80 @ SAC 83 | SAC +4.5 | SAC W |
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | MTST 87 @ SAC 60 | SAC +5.5 | MTST W |
| Jan 30, 2024-25 | SAC 58 @ MTST 70 | MTST -10.5 | MTST W |
| Mar 12, 2023-24 | SAC 71 vs MTST 74 | MTST -4.5 | SAC W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | SAC 66 @ MTST 63 | MTST -7.5 | SAC W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Sacramento St
25 games played
Straight up
6-19
24% wins
Against the spread
11-14
44% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-10
60% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | vs UCSB | L 87-92 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 14 | @ UCD | L 73-77 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 151.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 16 | vs PRES | W 64-62 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 18 | @ UCLA | L 48-79 | +27.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | @ CAL | L 67-91 | +21.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 29 | @ PAC | L 54-68 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | @ BAY | L 88-110 | +29.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 20 | @ CBU | L 67-74 | +14.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | @ CSUN | L 88-100 | +8.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | O 188 |
| Jan 1 | @ IDST | L 84-97 | +8.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 3 | @ WEB | L 82-95 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 168.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 10 | @ PRST | L 69-96 | +9.5 | L −17.5 | 160.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 15 | vs NAU | W 83-69 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 17 | vs UNCO | W 93-89 | +6.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 22 | @ IDHO | L 76-86 | +10.5 | W +0.5 | 161.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 24 | @ EWU | L 67-75 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 163.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 29 | vsMTST | W 83-80 | +4.5 | W +7.5 | 153.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 31 | vs MONT | W 86-79 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 2 | vsWEB | W 104-90 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 162.5 | O 194 |
| Feb 7 | vsPRST | L 73-74 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 12 | @UNCO | L 79-95 | +11.5 | L −4.5 | 164.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 14 | @NAU | L 74-79 | +2.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 19 | vsEWU | L 94-102 | +2.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 196 |
| Feb 21 | vsIDHO | L 80-86 | +4.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 26 | @MONT | L 73-81 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 161.5 | U 154 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
11
vsUCSB
UCSBL 87-92
+2.5
14
@UCD
UCDL 73-77
+0.5
16
vsPRES
PRESW 64-62
−4.5
18
@UCLA
UCLAL 48-79
−3.5
21
@CAL
CALL 67-91
−2.5
29
@PAC
PACL 54-68
−3.5
2
@BAY
BAYL 88-110
+7.5
20
@CBU
CBUL 67-74
+7.5
22
@CSUN
CSUNL 88-100
−3.5
1
@IDST
IDSTL 84-97
−4.5
3
@WEB
WEBL 82-95
−6.5
10
@PRST
PRSTL 69-96
−17.5
15
vsNAU
NAUW 83-69
+12.5
17
vsUNCO
UNCOW 93-89
+10.5
22
@IDHO
IDHOL 76-86
+0.5
24
@EWU
EWUL 67-75
−2.5
29
vsMTST
MTSTW 83-80
+7.5
31
vsMONT
MONTW 86-79
+10.5
2
vsWEB
WEBW 104-90
+12.5
7
vsPRST
PRSTL 73-74
+2.5
12
@UNCO
UNCOL 79-95
−4.5
14
@NAU
NAUL 74-79
−2.5
19
vsEWU
EWUL 94-102
−5.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-86
−1.5
26
@MONT
MONTL 73-81
−0.5
covered 11didn’t cover 14avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
11
vsUCSB
UCSBL 87-92
+17.5
14
@UCD
UCDL 73-77
−1.5
16
vsPRES
PRESW 64-62
−24.5
18
@UCLA
UCLAL 48-79
−19.5
21
@CAL
CALL 67-91
+3.5
29
@PAC
PACL 54-68
−24.5
2
@BAY
BAYL 88-110
+39.5
20
@CBU
CBUL 67-74
−17.5
22
@CSUN
CSUNL 88-100
+23.5
1
@IDST
IDSTL 84-97
+27.5
3
@WEB
WEBL 82-95
+8.5
10
@PRST
PRSTL 69-96
+4.5
15
vsNAU
NAUW 83-69
−1.5
17
vsUNCO
UNCOW 93-89
+18.5
22
@IDHO
IDHOL 76-86
+0.5
24
@EWU
EWUL 67-75
−21.5
29
vsMTST
MTSTW 83-80
+9.5
31
vsMONT
MONTW 86-79
+9.5
2
vsWEB
WEBW 104-90
+31.5
7
vsPRST
PRSTL 73-74
−3.5
12
@UNCO
UNCOL 79-95
+9.5
14
@NAU
NAUL 74-79
−1.5
19
vsEWU
EWUL 94-102
+35.5
21
vsIDHO
IDHOL 80-86
+2.5
26
@MONT
MONTL 73-81
−7.5
over 15under 10avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Montana St
26 games played
Straight up
13-13
50% wins
Against the spread
15-11
58% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-11
58% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ COLO | L 78-84 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 9 | vs DEN | L 73-75 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 12 | @ STAN | L 68-77 | +14.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 15 | @ BOIS | L 58-62 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 147.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 21 | @ LBSU | W 78-72 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 140.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 29 | @ USU | L 81-84 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 3 | vs STMN | W 82-74 | -2.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 6 | @ ORU | L 68-72 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | @ ORST | L 57-67 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 140.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 16 | @ CP | W 83-80 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 1 | vsUNCO | W 89-75 | -2.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | vsNAU | W 77-68 | -10.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 8 | @EWU | W 68-64 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 10 | @IDHO | L 89-92 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 17 | vsMONT | W 76-67 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 19 | @UNCO | W 73-68 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 153.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 22 | vsIDST | W 74-62 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 24 | vsWEB | W 91-88 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 29 | @SAC | L 80-83 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 153.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 31 | @PRST | L 54-63 | +4.5 | L −4.5 | 138.5 | U 117 |
| Feb 5 | vsIDHO | W 73-66 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 7 | vsEWU | L 71-72 | -5.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 14 | @MONT | W 82-71 | +2.5 | W +13.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 19 | @WEB | L 79-82 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 148.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 21 | @IDST | L 76-91 | -1.5 | L −16.5 | 144.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 26 | vsPRST | W 84-69 | -2.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@COLO
COLOL 78-84
+5.5
9
vsDEN
DENL 73-75
−9.5
12
@STAN
STANL 68-77
+5.5
15
@BOIS
BOISL 58-62
+12.5
21
@LBSU
LBSUW 78-72
+2.5
29
@USU
USUL 81-84
+14.5
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 82-74
+5.5
6
@ORU
ORUL 68-72
−10.5
13
@ORST
ORSTL 57-67
−8.5
16
@CP
CPW 83-80
+0.5
1
vsUNCO
UNCOW 89-75
+11.5
3
vsNAU
NAUW 77-68
−1.5
8
@EWU
EWUW 68-64
+1.5
10
@IDHO
IDHOL 89-92
−1.5
17
vsMONT
MONTW 76-67
+3.5
19
@UNCO
UNCOW 73-68
+7.5
22
vsIDST
IDSTW 74-62
+6.5
24
vsWEB
WEBW 91-88
−3.5
29
@SAC
SACL 80-83
−7.5
31
@PRST
PRSTL 54-63
−4.5
5
vsIDHO
IDHOW 73-66
+4.5
7
vsEWU
EWUL 71-72
−6.5
14
@MONT
MONTW 82-71
+13.5
19
@WEB
WEBL 79-82
−1.5
21
@IDST
IDSTL 76-91
−16.5
26
vsPRST
PRSTW 84-69
+12.5
covered 15didn’t cover 11avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@COLO
COLOL 78-84
+13.5
9
vsDEN
DENL 73-75
+1.5
12
@STAN
STANL 68-77
−3.5
15
@BOIS
BOISL 58-62
−27.5
21
@LBSU
LBSUW 78-72
+9.5
29
@USU
USUL 81-84
+16.5
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 82-74
+8.5
6
@ORU
ORUL 68-72
−10.5
13
@ORST
ORSTL 57-67
−16.5
16
@CP
CPW 83-80
+3.5
1
vsUNCO
UNCOW 89-75
+9.5
3
vsNAU
NAUW 77-68
+1.5
8
@EWU
EWUW 68-64
−24.5
10
@IDHO
IDHOL 89-92
+36.5
17
vsMONT
MONTW 76-67
−7.5
19
@UNCO
UNCOW 73-68
−12.5
22
vsIDST
IDSTW 74-62
−8.5
24
vsWEB
WEBW 91-88
+31.5
29
@SAC
SACL 80-83
+9.5
31
@PRST
PRSTL 54-63
−21.5
5
vsIDHO
IDHOW 73-66
−8.5
7
vsEWU
EWUL 71-72
−5.5
14
@MONT
MONTW 82-71
+7.5
19
@WEB
WEBL 79-82
+12.5
21
@IDST
IDSTL 76-91
+22.5
26
vsPRST
PRSTW 84-69
+12.5
over 15under 11avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Sacramento St
6-19 overall · 5-11 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Montana73–81
- Lvs Idaho80–86
- Lvs E Washington94–102
- L@ N Arizona74–79
- L@ N Colorado79–95
2 days since their last game.
Montana St
13-13 overall · 10-6 in conference · Big Sky Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Portland St84–69
- L@ Idaho St76–91
- L@ Weber St79–82
- W@ Montana82–71
- Lvs E Washington71–72
2 days since their last game.