Humphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St · Conference game
Closing line
ALA -4.5✓ ALA covered by 10.5
ALA -4.5✓ ALA covered by 10.5Closing total171.5Over by 7.5
| ALA | This season | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 11-5 | Record | 10-6 |
| 7-9 | ATS | 6-10 |
| 9-7 | O/U | 9-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ALA 92–84 MSST · ✓ ALA (76%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 36 | 61 | 97 |
| MSST | 34 | 48 | 82 |
1st half: ALA 36, MSST 34 (ALA by 2). The model had ALA by 5.0 and a total of 82.3 (actual 70).
Team stats
| ALA | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-66 44% | Field goals | 28-76 37% |
| 12-34 35% | 3-pointers | 9-28 32% |
| 27-33 82% | Free throws | 17-25 68% |
| 47 10 off | Rebounds | 43 15 off |
| 14 | Assists | 10 |
| 4 | Steals | 5 |
| 5 | Blocks | 6 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 19 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| ALA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labaron Philon Jr. G | 33 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 10-14 | 3-5 |
| Aden Holloway G | 30 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 4-8 | 3-5 |
| Amari Allen G | 29 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 4-10 | 2-6 |
| Aiden Sherrell F | 24 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 5-11 | 2-6 |
| London Jemison F | 23 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Houston Mallette G | 22 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-6 |
| Jalil Bethea G | 20 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Noah Williamson C | 16 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-2 |
| Preston Murphy Jr. G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jacob Martin C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Collins Onyejiaka, Keitenn Bristow, Klark James, Jack Fagan, Taylor Bol Bowen, Davion Hannah, Latrell Wrightsell Jr.
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 33 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 6-16 | 3-10 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 30 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3-8 | 2-3 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 26 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Epps G | 23 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 5-15 | 2-7 |
| Achor Achor F | 16 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3-10 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sergej Macura F | 24 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-2 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 12 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| King Grace G | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Dellquan Warren G | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Amier Ali F | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Brandon Walker F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Gai Chol
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketALA -4.5
ModelALA -8.2
Model edgeALA +3.7
W ALA covered
Total
Market171.5
Model175.9
Model edgeOver 4.4
W Over
Projected score
ALA 92.1 · MSST 83.8
ALA 97 · MSST 82
Win probability
ALA 76%
1st half
Spread
ALA -5.0
ALA -2.0
Total
82.3
70 points
Projected score
ALA 43.7 · MSST 38.6
ALA 36 · MSST 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenALA -7.5
3 → MSST
CloseALA -4.5
3 pts toward MSST
Total
Open173.5
▼ 2
Close171.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
ALA -198 · MSST +164
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ALA -7.5 · closed ALA -4.5 · moved 3 toward MSSTmodel ALA -8
model ALA -8
Opened 173.5 · closed 171.5 · moved 2 downmodel 176
model 176
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| MSST | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
ALA 8–1 MSSTALA leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · ALA has won the last 8 meetings · ALA 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024-25 | MSST 73 @ ALA 111 | ALA -8.5 | ALA W |
| Jan 29, 2024-25 | ALA 88 @ MSST 84 | MSST -0.5 | ALA W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | MSST 67 @ ALA 99 | ALA -8.5 | ALA W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | ALA 82 @ MSST 74 | MSST -1.5 | ALA W |
| Mar 10, 2022-23 | MSST 49 vs ALA 72 | ALA -8.5 | ALA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Alabama
16 games played
Straight up
11-5
69% wins
Against the spread
7-9
44% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-7
56% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UND | W 91-62 | -36.5 | L −7.5 | 170.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 8 | @ SJU | W 103-96 | +4.5 | W +11.5 | 172.5 | O 199 |
| Nov 13 | vs PUR | L 80-87 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 19 | vs ILL | W 90-86 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 24 | vs GONZ | L 85-95 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 178.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 25 | vs UNLV | W 115-76 | -13.5 | W +25.5 | 181.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 26 | vs MD | W 105-72 | -14.5 | W +18.5 | 166.5 | O 177 |
| Dec 3 | vs CLEM | W 90-84 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 7 | vs UTSA | W 97-55 | -33.5 | W +8.5 | 171.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ARIZ | L 75-96 | +2.5 | L −18.5 | 178.5 | U 171 |
| Dec 17 | vs USF | W 104-93 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 178.5 | O 197 |
| Dec 21 | vs KENN | W 92-81 | -20.5 | L −9.5 | 182.5 | U 173 |
| Dec 29 | vs YALE | W 102-78 | -15.5 | W +8.5 | 171.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | vs UK | W 89-74 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | @ VAN | L 90-96 | +3.5 | L −2.5 | 176.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 10 | vs TEX | L 88-92 | -11.5 | L −15.5 | 177.5 | O 180 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUND
UNDW 91-62
−7.5
8
@SJU
SJUW 103-96
+11.5
13
vsPUR
PURL 80-87
−10.5
19
vsILL
ILLW 90-86
+6.5
24
vsGONZ
GONZL 85-95
−5.5
25
vsUNLV
UNLVW 115-76
+25.5
26
vsMD
MDW 105-72
+18.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 90-84
−2.5
7
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-55
+8.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 75-96
−18.5
17
vsUSF
USFW 104-93
−3.5
21
vsKENN
KENNW 92-81
−9.5
29
vsYALE
YALEW 102-78
+8.5
3
vsUK
UKW 89-74
+9.5
7
@VAN
VANL 90-96
−2.5
10
vsTEX
TEXL 88-92
−15.5
covered 7didn’t cover 9avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUND
UNDW 91-62
−17.5
8
@SJU
SJUW 103-96
+26.5
13
vsPUR
PURL 80-87
−5.5
19
vsILL
ILLW 90-86
−4.5
24
vsGONZ
GONZL 85-95
+1.5
25
vsUNLV
UNLVW 115-76
+9.5
26
vsMD
MDW 105-72
+10.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEMW 90-84
+8.5
7
vsUTSA
UTSAW 97-55
−19.5
13
vsARIZ
ARIZL 75-96
−7.5
17
vsUSF
USFW 104-93
+18.5
21
vsKENN
KENNW 92-81
−9.5
29
vsYALE
YALEW 102-78
+8.5
3
vsUK
UKW 89-74
−10.5
7
@VAN
VANL 90-96
+9.5
10
vsTEX
TEXL 88-92
+2.5
over 9under 7avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Mississippi St
16 games played
Straight up
10-6
63% wins
Against the spread
6-10
38% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-7
56% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vs OU | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @UK | L 68-92 | +10.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
+17.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
−13.5
covered 6didn’t cover 10avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
−33.5
10
@UK
UKL 68-92
+7.5
over 9under 7avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Alabama
11-5 overall · 1-2 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Texas88–92
- L@ Vanderbilt90–96
- Wvs Kentucky89–74
- Wvs Yale102–78
- Wvs Kennesaw St92–81
3 days since their last game.
Mississippi St
10-6 overall · 2-1 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Kentucky68–92
- Wvs Oklahoma72–53
- W@ Texas101–98
- Wvs Alabama St94–56
- Wvs Memphis71–66
3 days since their last game.