Murphy Center · at MTSU · Conference game
Closing line
MTSU -5.5✓ NMSU covered by 4.5
MTSU -5.5✓ NMSU covered by 4.5Closing total148.5Over by 22.5
 NMSU | This season | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| 10-14 | Record | 11-14 |
| 11-13 | ATS | 11-14 |
| 14-10 | O/U | 13-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NMSU 72–76 MTSU · ✓ MTSU (63%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 42 | 34 | 9 | 85 |
| MTSU | 36 | 40 | 10 | 86 |
1st half: NMSU 42, MTSU 36 (NMSU by 6). The model had MTSU by 2.1 and a total of 69.5 (actual 78).
Team stats
| NMSU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 33-74 45% | Field goals | 29-57 51% |
| 7-25 28% | 3-pointers | 7-22 32% |
| 12-16 75% | Free throws | 21-27 78% |
| 34 14 off | Rebounds | 39 10 off |
| 10 | Assists | 11 |
| 9 | Steals | 3 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| NMSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jemel Jones G | 39 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 13-24 | 1-6 |
| Julius Mims F | 39 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 5-11 | 0-1 |
| Gabe Pickens G | 33 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Anthony Wrzeszcz G | 32 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3-7 | 2-6 |
| Jae'Coby Osborne F | 26 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayland Randall G | 25 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 5-11 | 4-8 |
| Chris Terrell G | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Augustine Ekwe C | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Elliott G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Cyr Malonga C | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Amarco Doyle, Omarr Smith, Kyrese Mullen, Teysean Eaglestaff, Christian Villegas
| MTSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Loofe F | 38 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Torey Alston F | 37 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Kamari Lands G | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-3 |
| Sean Smith G | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-1 |
| Alec Oglesby G | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jahvin Carter G | 33 | 27 | 3 | 7 | 10-17 | 3-6 |
| Tre Green G | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Marcus Whitlock Jr. G | 25 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-5 |
| James Dent Jr. G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Luka Jovanovic C | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Savon Wykle, Brandon Oloumou, Jax Howard, Charvez Ambrose, Jarred Hall
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMTSU -5.5
ModelMTSU -3.7
Model edgeNMSU +1.8
W NMSU covered
Total
Market148.5
Model148.5
Model edge—
Over
Projected score
NMSU 72.4 · MTSU 76.1
NMSU 85 · MTSU 86
Win probability
MTSU 63%
1st half
Spread
MTSU -2.1
NMSU -6.0
Total
69.5
78 points
Projected score
NMSU 33.7 · MTSU 35.8
NMSU 42 · MTSU 36
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMTSU -5.5
no move
CloseMTSU -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open146.5
▲ 2
Close148.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
NMSU +210 · MTSU -258
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MTSU -5.5 · unchangedmodel MTSU -3.5
model MTSU -3.5
Opened 146.5 · closed 148.5 · moved 2 upmodel 148.5 matches the line
model 148.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
| MTSU | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
NMSU 2–3 MTSUMTSU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · MTSU has won the last 2 meetings · NMSU 2-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2025-26 | MTSU 59 @ NMSU 55 | NMSU -3.5 | MTSU W |
| Feb 27, 2024-25 | MTSU 71 @ NMSU 66 | NMSU -1.5 | MTSU W |
| Jan 30, 2024-25 | NMSU 61 @ MTSU 57 | MTSU -7.5 | NMSU W |
| Feb 15, 2023-24 | NMSU 69 @ MTSU 76 | MTSU -3.5 | MTSU W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | MTSU 62 @ NMSU 73 | NMSU -5.5 | NMSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
New Mexico St
24 games played
Straight up
10-14
42% wins
Against the spread
11-13
46% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-10
58% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15 | vs UNM | W 76-68 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 139.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAM | W 81-72 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCI | W 57-45 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | U 102 |
| Nov 26 | vs GAST | W 77-58 | -12.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | vs USA | L 75-77 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 6 | @ ACU | L 69-77 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 131.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 13 | vs TLSA | L 70-83 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 21 | vs SHSU | W 87-78 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 2 | @ FIU | L 74-89 | -1.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 4 | @ MOST | L 82-89 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 8 | vs WKU | W 80-64 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vsMTSU | L 55-59 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 15 | @ LIB | L 71-73 | +8.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | @ DEL | W 97-68 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 134.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 22 | vsMOST | L 75-84 | -6.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vsFIU | L 78-81 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 28 | vsDEL | L 64-73 | -13.5 | L −22.5 | 137.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 31 | @ KENN | L 53-76 | +3.5 | L −19.5 | 159.5 | U 129 |
| Feb 4 | @ LT | W 72-63 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 135.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 7 | @ UTEP | L 88-91 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 138.5 | O 179 |
| Feb 11 | vsLIB | L 75-77 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 14 | @ JXST | W 79-70 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 139.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 21 | vsUTEP | W 67-63 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 26 | @WKU | L 70-93 | +4.5 | L −18.5 | 151.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
15
vsUNM
UNMW 76-68
+11.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 81-72
+0.5
25
vsUCI
UCIW 57-45
+14.5
26
vsGAST
GASTW 77-58
+6.5
2
vsUSA
USAL 75-77
−4.5
6
@ACU
ACUL 69-77
−9.5
13
vsTLSA
TLSAL 70-83
−8.5
21
vsSHSU
SHSUW 87-78
+3.5
2
@FIU
FIUL 74-89
−16.5
4
@MOST
MOSTL 82-89
−5.5
8
vsWKU
WKUW 80-64
+13.5
10
vsMTSU
MTSUL 55-59
−7.5
15
@LIB
LIBL 71-73
+6.5
17
@DEL
DELW 97-68
+24.5
22
vsMOST
MOSTL 75-84
−15.5
24
vsFIU
FIUL 78-81
−10.5
28
vsDEL
DELL 64-73
−22.5
31
@KENN
KENNL 53-76
−19.5
4
@LT
LTW 72-63
+10.5
7
@UTEP
UTEPL 88-91
−4.5
11
vsLIB
LIBL 75-77
+1.5
14
@JXST
JXSTW 79-70
+10.5
21
vsUTEP
UTEPW 67-63
−3.5
26
@WKU
WKUL 70-93
−18.5
covered 11didn’t cover 13avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
15
vsUNM
UNMW 76-68
+4.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 81-72
+7.5
25
vsUCI
UCIW 57-45
−37.5
26
vsGAST
GASTW 77-58
−1.5
2
vsUSA
USAL 75-77
+16.5
6
@ACU
ACUL 69-77
+14.5
13
vsTLSA
TLSAL 70-83
+6.5
21
vsSHSU
SHSUW 87-78
+11.5
2
@FIU
FIUL 74-89
+5.5
4
@MOST
MOSTL 82-89
+36.5
8
vsWKU
WKUW 80-64
−10.5
10
vsMTSU
MTSUL 55-59
−30.5
15
@LIB
LIBL 71-73
−1.5
17
@DEL
DELW 97-68
+30.5
22
vsMOST
MOSTL 75-84
+14.5
24
vsFIU
FIUL 78-81
−0.5
28
vsDEL
DELL 64-73
−0.5
31
@KENN
KENNL 53-76
−30.5
4
@LT
LTW 72-63
−0.5
7
@UTEP
UTEPL 88-91
+40.5
11
vsLIB
LIBL 75-77
+7.5
14
@JXST
JXSTW 79-70
+9.5
21
vsUTEP
UTEPW 67-63
−12.5
26
@WKU
WKUL 70-93
+11.5
over 14under 10avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
MTSU
25 games played
Straight up
11-14
44% wins
Against the spread
11-14
44% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-12
52% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | @ EVAN | W 77-72 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 140.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 19 | @ MICH | L 61-86 | +27.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 23 | vs MUR | W 90-87 | +6.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | vs GW | L 79-92 | +9.5 | L −3.5 | 158.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs MCN | L 62-72 | +9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 1 | vs UAB | W 76-61 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 7 | vs BEL | L 62-83 | +3.5 | L −17.5 | 153.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 17 | vsKENN | W 68-67 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 29 | @ HOU | L 60-69 | +25.5 | W +16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 2 | vsLT | W 88-51 | -6.5 | W +30.5 | 134.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 4 | vsSHSU | W 68-67 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 8 | @UTEP | L 80-83 | -3.5 | L −6.5 | 137.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 10 | @NMSU | W 59-55 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 14 | @LT | L 58-59 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 131.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 17 | vsMOST | W 90-87 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 137.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 23 | @JXST | L 58-75 | -1.5 | L −18.5 | 133.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 29 | vsLIB | L 65-81 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 136.5 | O 146 |
| Jan 31 | vsWKU | L 60-65 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 140.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 4 | vsFIU | L 84-88 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 7 | @DEL | L 88-89 | -5.5 | L −6.5 | 133.5 | O 177 |
| Feb 12 | @KENN | W 90-87 | +3.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 177 |
| Feb 14 | @WKU | L 80-82 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 18 | @SHSU | L 70-78 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 21 | vsDEL | W 78-66 | -10.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | O 144 |
| Feb 26 | vsUTEP | W 77-67 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 139.5 | O 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+7.5
19
@MICH
MICHL 61-86
+2.5
23
vsMUR
MURW 90-87
+9.5
24
vsGW
GWL 79-92
−3.5
25
vsMCN
MCNL 62-72
−0.5
1
vsUAB
UABW 76-61
+16.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 62-83
−17.5
17
vsKENN
KENNW 68-67
−2.5
29
@HOU
HOUL 60-69
+16.5
2
vsLT
LTW 88-51
+30.5
4
vsSHSU
SHSUW 68-67
−3.5
8
@UTEP
UTEPL 80-83
−6.5
10
@NMSU
NMSUW 59-55
+7.5
14
@LT
LTL 58-59
−4.5
17
vsMOST
MOSTW 90-87
−2.5
23
@JXST
JXSTL 58-75
−18.5
29
vsLIB
LIBL 65-81
−14.5
31
vsWKU
WKUL 60-65
−11.5
4
vsFIU
FIUL 84-88
−9.5
7
@DEL
DELL 88-89
−6.5
12
@KENN
KENNW 90-87
+6.5
14
@WKU
WKUL 80-82
+1.5
18
@SHSU
SHSUL 70-78
−4.5
21
vsDEL
DELW 78-66
+1.5
26
vsUTEP
UTEPW 77-67
+1.5
covered 11didn’t cover 14avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+8.5
19
@MICH
MICHL 61-86
−12.5
23
vsMUR
MURW 90-87
+15.5
24
vsGW
GWL 79-92
+12.5
25
vsMCN
MCNL 62-72
−13.5
1
vsUAB
UABW 76-61
−16.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 62-83
−8.5
17
vsKENN
KENNW 68-67
−25.5
29
@HOU
HOUL 60-69
−9.5
2
vsLT
LTW 88-51
+4.5
4
vsSHSU
SHSUW 68-67
−21.5
8
@UTEP
UTEPL 80-83
+25.5
10
@NMSU
NMSUW 59-55
−30.5
14
@LT
LTL 58-59
−14.5
17
vsMOST
MOSTW 90-87
+39.5
23
@JXST
JXSTL 58-75
−0.5
29
vsLIB
LIBL 65-81
+9.5
31
vsWKU
WKUL 60-65
−15.5
4
vsFIU
FIUL 84-88
+17.5
7
@DEL
DELL 88-89
+43.5
12
@KENN
KENNW 90-87
+28.5
14
@WKU
WKUL 80-82
+16.5
18
@SHSU
SHSUL 70-78
−3.5
21
vsDEL
DELW 78-66
+6.5
26
vsUTEP
UTEPW 77-67
+4.5
over 13under 12avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
New Mexico St
10-14 overall · 6-11 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Western KY70–93
- Wvs UTEP67–63
- W@ Jax State79–70
- Lvs Liberty75–77
- L@ UTEP88–91
2 days since their last game.
MTSU
11-14 overall · 8-9 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UTEP77–67
- Wvs Delaware78–66
- L@ Sam Houston70–78
- L@ Western KY80–82
- W@ Kennesaw St90–87
2 days since their last game.