1. Home
  2. NBA
  3. Sat, Dec 12
  4. ATL @ POR
NBA · Sat, Dec 12

Hawks @ Trail Blazers

Moda Center · at Trail Blazers
#14ATLHawks
@
#9PORTrail Blazers
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ATLThis seasonPOR
3-4Record4-1
3-4ATS3-2
4-3O/U2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects POR 118–112 · win probability POR 67%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 230.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

ATL 2, POR 7 · 2026-27 so far
PORBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, POR 35.9. Allowed: ATL 32.1, POR 27.8
Context
Schedule so far
ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3
ATLBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, POR 14.6%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, POR 14.8%
PORBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, POR 77.3%
PORSmall
POR offense vs ATL defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmall
Recent form
Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4
PORSmall
Three-pointers
ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 44.7% and 51.5% of their shots
PORSmall
Home court
POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, ATL 2-2 away
ATLSmall
ATL offense vs POR defense
Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -6.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model230.7
Model edge—
Projected score
ATL 112.4 · POR 118.4
Win probability
POR 67%
1st half
Spread
POR -3.2
Total
115.5
Projected score
ATL 56.1 · POR 59.4
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Trail Blazers has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 2, Trail Blazers 3, even 0
HawksBetterTrail Blazers
G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67
PORSmall
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87
ATLBig
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
PORSmall
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78
ATLSmall
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30
PORBig
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
HawksBetterTrail Blazers
ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5
Even
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6
PORSmall
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players
ATLBig
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player
PORBig
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
PORBig
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestATL betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Hawks
Guards
N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min
Forwards
O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min
Out
J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ATLPOR
Scoring
116.3 #13Points per game120.6 #4
1.10 #16Points per possession1.16 #5
105.6 #7Pace (possessions)103.5 #14
Shooting
52.6 #19Effective FG%56.2 #4
32.8 #223-point %35.3 #12
44.7 #113-point attempt rate51.5 #1
23.4 #26Free throw rate35.9 #3
Possessions
13.8 #4Turnover rate14.6 #9
27.1 #18Offensive rebound rate27.6 #14
30.7 #1Assists per game26.2 #17
Defense
115.4 #19Points allowed109.2 #10
1.10 #17Points allowed per possession1.06 #10
54.5 #22Opponent effective FG%51.3 #8
31.9 #7Opponent 3-point %32.1 #8
18.3 #2Turnovers forced14.8 #20
70.9 #19Defensive rebound rate77.3 #3
9.4 #8Steals per game8.6 #18
3.7 #29Blocks per game4.2 #21
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Pelicans99–121
  • Wvs Cavaliers114–111
  • Lvs Heat117–129
  • L@ Rockets110–120
  • Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.